股指期货周报-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices declined collectively this week, and the four stock index futures also weakened. Large-cap blue-chip stocks were weaker than small and mid-cap stocks. The market trading activity declined slightly compared to last week, and the total trading volume of northbound funds has been above 900 billion yuan for four consecutive weeks. The domestic economic fundamentals showed a decline in the official manufacturing PMI in July, which has been in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Although the non-manufacturing PMI and the composite PMI remained above the boom-bust line, they also declined from the previous values. The decline in manufacturing sentiment had a negative impact on market sentiment. In terms of trade, China and the US reached a 90-day tariff truce extension as scheduled. In terms of policy, the Politburo meeting in July did not announce more incremental policies, which was weaker than market expectations. Overall, the third trade negotiation provided more flexibility for the market, but the decline of the three PMI indices in July indicated that the economic recovery still faced certain challenges. After the Politburo meeting, due to the full reaction of the market to the meeting expectations, in the absence of more-than-expected policies, the market bulls may take profit actions, and the stock index is expected to enter a wide-range shock. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [6][98] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures: IF2509 had a weekly decline of 2.10%, IH2509 declined 1.52%, IC2509 dropped 1.80%, and IM2509 fell 0.95%. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index declined 1.75%, the Shanghai 50 Index dropped 1.48%, the CSI 500 Index fell 1.37%, and the CSI 1000 Index declined 0.54%. [9] 3.2 News Overview - From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 3.4365 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. The operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year-on-year. - From July 28th to 29th, China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, and the two sides agreed to extend the suspension of the 24% US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for 90 days. - The Politburo meeting pointed out that macro policies should continue to exert force and increase force in a timely manner, implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, release domestic demand potential, expand high-level opening up, and resolve local government debt risks. - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, a decrease of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. [12][13][14] 3.3 Weekly Market Data - Domestic Main Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.58%, the STAR 50 Index declined 1.65%, the SME 100 Index dropped 1.95%, and the ChiNext Index declined 0.74%. - Overseas Main Indices: The S&P 500 declined 0.77%, the FTSE 100 rose 0.14%, the Hang Seng Index declined 3.47%, and the Nikkei 225 declined 1.58%. - Industry Sector Performance: Industry sectors generally declined, with coal and non-ferrous metals sectors weakening significantly, while pharmaceutical and biological, communication and other sectors rising against the trend. - Industry Sector Main Fund Flow: Industry main funds generally showed a net outflow, with large net outflows in the computer and non-ferrous metals sectors, and small net inflows in the banking and transportation sectors. - SHIBOR Short-term Interest Rate: The SHIBOR short-term interest rate declined, and the capital price was low. - Restricted Share Lifting and Northbound Capital: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 7.52 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted shares lifted was 88.748 billion yuan. Northbound funds had a total trading volume of 955.947 billion yuan. - Futures Basis: The basis of the IF, IH, and IC main contracts fluctuated weakly, while the basis of the IM main contract fluctuated. [17][18][22][26][30][33][41][44][50][54] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The stock index is expected to enter a wide-range shock. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [98]