Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-01 09:01Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) declined with a weekly drop of about 4.13%, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) fell 3.09%. Internationally, due to poor US cotton export data and a stronger US dollar, the US cotton futures price has been falling. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with no news about quotas yet, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched. However, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with spinning mills having no profit, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and more cautious raw material procurement. In terms of new crops, China's cotton planting area has increased in 2025, and the weather theme has cooled down. Overall, although the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, the downstream demand is weak, the area and output of new crops are increasing, the weather theme has cooled down, and there are expectations for quotas. Therefore, the cotton 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies and pay attention to risk control [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Performance: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) dropped about 4.13% this week, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) declined 3.09% [7]. - International Situation: US cotton futures prices have been falling due to poor export data and a stronger US dollar. As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US 2024/25 market - year upland cotton export sales was 39,100 bales, a sharp drop from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in 2025/26 market - year upland cotton export sales was 71,700 bales [7]. - Domestic Situation: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before new cotton is launched, and there is no news about quotas. The textile industry is in a consumption off - season, spinning mills have no profit, the operating rate is declining, and raw material procurement is cautious. China's cotton planting area has increased in 2025, and the weather theme has cooled down [7]. - Market Outlook: The cotton 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies and pay attention to risk control [7]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.95%. As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton was 64,278 contracts, a 0.54% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short - position was 91,528 contracts, a 2.82% increase; the CFTC net position of US cotton was - 27,250 contracts, a 8.64% decrease [10]. - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US 2024/25 market - year upland cotton export sales was 39,100 bales, a sharp drop from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in 2025/26 market - year upland cotton export sales was 71,700 bales. As of July 29, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.8 cents per pound, a 0.13% increase from the previous period [16]. - Futures Market: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) dropped about 4.13% this week, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) declined 3.09%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 18,064 contracts, and that in cotton yarn futures was 21 contracts. The cotton futures warehouse receipts were 8,807 contracts, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 89 contracts [21][26][31]. - Spot Market: As of August 1, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,260 yuan per ton. As of July 31, 2025, the CY index of OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton. As of August 1, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,680 yuan per ton [38][50]. - Futures - Spot Spread: This week, the spread between Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contracts was - 200 yuan per ton, and the spread between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,420 yuan per ton [35]. - Futures Basis: This week, the basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract was + 1,675 yuan per ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract was 940 yuan per ton [45]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Price: As of July 30, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,616 yuan per ton, a 0.89% decrease from the previous period; the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,360 yuan per ton, a 0.62% decrease. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was 21,230 yuan per ton, a 0.09% decrease; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C21S was 20,195 yuan per ton, a 0.08% decrease; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:JC32S was 23,110 yuan per ton, a 0.04% decrease [53]. - Imported Cotton Cost - Profit: As of July 30, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 1,110 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,854 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - Supply Side: As of June, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a 18.18% decrease from the previous period. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a 1.17% decrease from the previous period. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were about 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. In June 2025, China's cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative cotton yarn imports were 670,000 tons [60][64]. - Mid - end Industry: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a 6.8% increase from the previous period, and the坯布 inventory was 35.46 days, a 7.81% increase from the previous period [68]. - Terminal Consumption: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a 4.62% decrease from the previous period; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, a 12.44% increase from the previous period. As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles were 742.59 billion yuan, a 20.98% increase from the previous period; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 3.1%, a 6.06% decrease from the previous period [72][76]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Options Market: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not mentioned [77]. - Stock Market: The report mentions the Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis data is provided [80].