全球经济和大类资产月报：大宗商品二浪回调-20250801

Report Title - Global Economic and Major Asset Monthly Report: Second Wave Correction of Commodities [1] Report Date - August 1, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - The global economy maintains an upward trend [47][53] Industry Situation Global Economy - The global manufacturing PMI index resumed expansion in June due to the easing of Sino-US tariffs [6] United States - In June, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices continued to increase [12] - In June, US retail and food sales reached $720.1 billion, a month-on-month surge of 0.6%, indicating strong consumer spending [15] - In May, the US goods import value was $264.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.26%, showing that imports are returning to normal [18] - In May, US capital goods imports were $90.9 billion, second only to March, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.3%, indicating the acceleration of manufacturing reshoring and "re-industrialization" [21] - In May, the US service export value was $98.7 billion, basically flat with the previous month, showing a strong service industry [24] - In June, the US core CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.9% (previous value 2.8%), and the month-on-month increase was 0.3%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [27] - In June, the US personal consumption expenditure price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reaching a four-month high [30] - In May, the US non-farm enterprise hourly wage was $36.24, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9% [35] - In May, the US wholesaler inventory year-on-year growth rate was 1.4%, and the manufacturer inventory year-on-year growth rate was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [38] Eurozone - The Eurozone has cut interest rates for the 8th consecutive time, and Germany's military expansion of 30% will boost the Eurozone's manufacturing industry [41] India - India's manufacturing PMI continued to expand in June, and its manufacturing and service industries have maintained expansion for more than three years [44] Policy and Events - Sino-US and Sweden negotiations extended the tariff truce for 3 months, stabilizing global economic expectations [48] - China strengthened the domestic cycle and started issuing child-raising subsidies [50] - China comprehensively rectified involution-style competition, pushing up commodity prices [51] - The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the 8th consecutive time, and Germany's military expansion of 30% and a 1.2% month-on-month increase in industrial output in May promoted the recovery of European manufacturing [51] - The US government released the "AI Action Plan", and Meta plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building large data centers [52] Major Asset Strategy Stocks - The rebound of US stocks after April was mainly driven by retail investors, while institutions withdrew [56] - The Shanghai Composite Index has limited downside space, with strong support below 3550 points. After sufficient technical consolidation, A-shares are expected to rise with the inflow of off-market funds, and the four major stock index futures contracts are still bullish [67] Bonds - The US Treasury buys long-term bonds and sells short-term bonds to lower long-term bond yields [58] - Japanese government bond yields are rising due to political turmoil [61] - Inflation trends are impacting long-term government bonds, and there has been a large-scale redemption of bond funds [73] Commodities - The Wenhua Commodity Index bottomed on June 4, soared in July, peaked on July 25, and entered a second-wave correction, which is likely to last until late August and enter the main upward wave before the Fed cuts interest rates in September [70] Gold - Gold is still in a technical adjustment, mainly fluctuating in a sideways range [76] Currency - The RMB is expected to have double surpluses in trade and capital accounts, and is still favored [79]