格林大华期货股指月报：回落空间有限，场外资金加速入市-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market has limited downside space. After sufficient adjustment, the stock index will continue to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index has strong support below 3550 points, and the short - term decline does not hinder the medium - term optimism [11][13]. - The government's fiscal and monetary policies will continue to support the economy. The release of policy effects and the improvement of corporate profitability will drive the upward movement of the stock market [11][13]. - There are investment opportunities in the technology sector, especially in the AI field, covering computing power, data, and downstream applications [34][35]. - The inflow of various funds, including domestic and foreign funds, into the stock market will provide impetus for the rise of the stock market [11][24][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - In July, the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 3500 points, and the wealth effect spread. The third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds to support the replacement of old consumer goods has been fully allocated, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be allocated in October [8][11][13]. - As of July 29, the margin trading balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 1.0008 trillion yuan, hitting a new high since July 8, 2015, and the total margin trading balance of the two markets was 1.962 trillion yuan [13]. - The decline in the second half of the week was due to some funds believing that the Politburo meeting's policies were lower than expected, but in fact, the economic situation in the first half of the year was better than expected, and policies after April were continuously strengthening [13]. - The decline of commodities at the end of July was a second - wave correction, and after the correction, the overall upward trend of commodities will improve the profitability of listed companies [13]. Economic Policy - On July 31, the Politburo emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, enhancing flexibility and predictability, and promoting domestic and international double - circulation. Fiscal policy should be more proactive, and monetary policy should maintain sufficient liquidity and promote the decline of comprehensive social financing costs [15]. - In the second half of the year, anti - involution is the focus, emphasizing the importance of the stock market, promoting the development of new quality productivity through scientific and technological innovation, and optimizing the market competition order [17]. Capital Flow - In June, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 reached 4.6%, indicating accelerated currency activation, which is beneficial to the upward movement of the stock market [21]. - In April and May, the new deposits of non - bank financial institutions exceeded 1 trillion yuan each month, indicating the transfer of funds to the stock market [24]. - The margin trading balance continued to hit new highs in July, and the financing funds accelerated to enter the market. The margin trading balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, hitting a 10 - year high [27]. - Funds in the bond market continued to flow into the stock market, and bond funds suffered large - scale redemptions [30]. Foreign Investment Views - Sovereign wealth funds and global family offices have a continuous increase in investment interest in China. 59% of sovereign wealth funds surveyed by Invesco listed China as a high - or medium - priority target, up from 44% last year. 19% of global family offices plan to increase their allocation of assets in this region, 3 percentage points higher than in 2024 [33]. - BlackRock is optimistic about the investment in China's technology sector, especially in the AI field, which covers three major directions: computing power, data, and downstream applications [34][35]. Economic Data - In June, China's export value reached 325.1 billion US dollars, a new high in half a year, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.8% [37]. - In June, the retail sales of social consumer goods reached 3.75 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year growth rate of 5.3% [40]. - In June, the fixed - asset investment in manufacturing reached 3.92 trillion yuan, a record high, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.1% [43]. - In June, infrastructure investment reached 3.45 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.3% [46]. - In June, the new housing start - up area and the commercial housing sales area began to pick up, and the new start - up area reached a new high in a year [49]. - In June, the output of industrial robots reached 74,700 units, a new high, with a year - on - year growth rate of 40.8% [52]. - In June, the output of integrated circuits reached 45 billion pieces, a new high, with a year - on - year growth rate of 24.4%, indicating accelerated domestic substitution of chips [55]. - In June, the export volume of Chinese electric vehicles reached 281,000 units, remaining at a high level [57]. US Economic Data - In June, the US manufacturing PMI and service industry business activity index showed certain trends. The retail and food sales in June were 720.1 billion US dollars, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, indicating strong US consumption [60][62]. - In May, the US capital goods import value was 90.9 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 16.3%, indicating the acceleration of the US "re - industrialization" [65]. - In June, the year - on - year growth rate of the US core CPI was 2.9%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [68]. - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventory was 1.4%, and that of manufacturers' inventory was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [73]. Strategy Suggestions - As a representative of China's offshore assets, the Hang Seng Technology ETF benefits from the re - allocation of global financial assets [80]. - The Wenhua Commodity Index bottomed out on June 4, rose sharply in July, and entered the second - wave correction after peaking on July 25. It is expected to enter the main upward wave before the Fed cuts interest rates in September [82]. - The decline space of the Shanghai Composite Index is limited, and there is strong support below 3550 points. After technical adjustment, A - shares will continue to rise. Be bullish on the four major stock index futures contracts [85]. - Due to the impact of quantitative funds' hedging, the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index 2512 contracts still have a relatively deep discount. In the case of limited downside risk, the discount income can be earned [88]. - The decline space is limited. Be bullish on the far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options of stock index options [91].