钢材月报：预期交易逐渐退却，行情转向供需逻辑-20250801

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report holds a cautiously bearish view on the steel market in August [4]. 2. Core View - In July, the black - series market was dominated by the "anti - involution" theme, but towards the end of the month, market sentiment cooled, and the trading logic may shift to supply - demand fundamentals. The supply is stable due to profit support, while the demand is weak, and it is difficult for exports to maintain strength. Therefore, the market is likely to decline rather than rise [3][4]. - For August, it is advisable to short at high prices, and industrial customers can hedge. Also, one can consider building a long - rebar and short - hot - rolled coil position [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - In July, the market was led by the "anti - involution" theme. After relevant policies were announced, coking coal drove the black - series up. However, at the end of the month, the market回调 due to the lack of incremental stimulus policies and poor PMI performance. In July, the main contract of rebar rose 6.9%, hot - rolled coil rose 8.6%, iron ore rose 8.9%, coke rose 14%, and coking coal rose 26.7% [8]. 3.2. Money and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally continued to rise, and the M1 - M2 gap kept expanding. In June, RMB loans increased significantly to 2.24 trillion, and the year - on - year difference between social financing and M2 slightly decreased [11]. 3.3. Price Index - In June, CPI was 0.1 with little change, and PPI was - 3.6, down 0.3 from May, indicating a deflationary environment. In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 month - on - month, lower than market expectations [14]. 3.4. Monthly Steel Data - In the first half of 2025, crude steel production decreased by 3% year - on - year. Pig iron production decreased by 0.8%, with a smaller decline than crude steel, suggesting a lower proportion of scrap steel in the converter process. Steel exports increased significantly, with an increase of 4750000 tons in steel exports and 4420000 tons in billet exports [15]. 3.5. Weekly Data of Five Major Steel Products - As of August 1, 2025, the cumulative year - on - year data of production and apparent consumption of the five major steel products were basically in line, indicating a relatively balanced supply - demand situation. Inventories were lower than the same period last year [16][17]. 3.6. Steel Production - Since this year, steel mills have had good profits and high production enthusiasm. Production is expected to remain stable, unlike the significant decline in the same period last year [20]. 3.7. Steel Production Profit - Currently, blast furnace profits are generally good, with a production profit of 200 - 300 yuan/ton for rebar and hot - rolled coil. Electric - arc furnace profits have improved, with valley - electricity operations basically profitable and flat - electricity operations near the break - even point [21]. 3.8. Steel Demand - The demand side is relatively weak. Construction steel transactions have remained at around 100000 tons without improvement. Real estate data shows that future housing construction demand is difficult to improve significantly. Fixed - asset investment growth has slowed down, and infrastructure investment growth has also declined. Although the issuance of special local bonds is expected to accelerate in the third quarter, the impact on physical volume is limited [42][46][55]. 3.9. Steel Export - With the rise of domestic steel prices, the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed, export profits have decreased significantly, and future exports may be negatively affected [67]. 3.10. Steel Inventory - During the July price increase, the rebar basis changed little and even increased slightly for the October contract. The hot - rolled coil basis continued to decline. The rebar 10 - 1 spread gradually decreased in July, and the hot - rolled coil 10 - 1 spread remained in a contango structure at a low level [82][85][91]. 3.11. Steel Price Spread - The spot spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil has weakened, while the futures spread has reached a relatively high level this year, showing a certain divergence. Considering the unfavorable export situation, one can consider building a long - rebar and short - hot - rolled coil position [4].