矿石：给端表现增量，矿价或震偏弱运行

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - In August, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, leading to a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Prices are likely to fluctuate and trend weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, the futures and spot prices of iron ore fluctuated and trended strongly. As of July 30, the futures price of the main contract increased by 73.5 yuan/ton month - on - month [5]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - Mainstream Mines: The shipments of the four major mines are expected to rebound in August, with an estimated month - on - month increase of about 258.5 million tons. Vale is expected to ship 27.1 million tons in August, a month - on - month increase of 3.5 million tons; Rio Tinto is expected to ship 28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 235 million tons; BHP is expected to ship 23.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 75 million tons; FMG is expected to ship 16.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95 million tons [25][28][30]. - Non - mainstream Mines: Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable overall. In August, the estimated shipment is 43.2 million tons, a decrease of about 40 million tons [33]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic iron concentrate production in July is estimated to be 20.85 million tons, and the production in August is expected to be 21.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30 million tons [36]. - Total Supply: The global supply in August is expected to increase by about 248.5 million tons month - on - month [6]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - Domestic Demand: According to the statistics of Mysteel, the national pig iron production in July is estimated to be 74.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the blast furnace hot metal production is expected to be 74.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3 million tons. The demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to increase slightly by 5 million tons [6][18][22]. - Overseas Demand: Except for China, the daily average pig iron production is decreasing. In August, the pig iron production is estimated to decrease slightly by 62,000 tons, and the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease slightly by about 10 million tons [6][21][22]. - Global Demand: In August, the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease by about 5 million tons globally [6][22]. 3.4 Steel Mill Profit - In July, the profits of long - and short - process steel mills reached a high level, and short - process steel mills turned losses into profits. At the end of July, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a year - on - year increase of 1.13 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a year - on - year increase of 48.49 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 2.4223 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons [9][13][15]. 3.5 Inventory - At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. In August, the inventory is expected to accumulate, but the overall inventory accumulation rate will slow down [40]. - Steel mills mainly replenish inventory as needed, with narrow inventory fluctuations and a stable inventory - to - consumption ratio [42]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Table | Date | Supply (million tons) | Demand (million tons) | Export (million tons) | Supply - Demand Surplus (million tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 01 | 127.3078 | 122.0185 | 1.7907 | 3.4987 | | 2025 - 02 | 102.2437 | 123.5627 | 2.2287 | - 23.5478 | | 2025 - 03 | 130.8431 | 126.6254 | 1.9641 | 2.2536 | | 2025 - 04 | 128.6777 | 130.4944 | 1.8359 | - 3.6526 | | 2025 - 05 | 132.3421 | 132.7831 | 2.3730 | - 2.8140 | | 2025 - 06 | 137.1990 | 126.9900 | 1.2567 | 8.9523 | | 2025 - 07 | 135.2500 | 130.6900 | 1.2600 | 3.3000 | | 2025 - 08 | 135.3800 | 130.7500 | 1.6700 | 2.9600 | | 2025 - 09 | 124.4500 | 129.7500 | 1.9600 | - 7.2600 | | 2025 - 10 | 134.7500 | 132.1000 | 1.5700 | 1.0800 | | 2025 - 11 | 128.4500 | 124.4000 | 1.5600 | 2.4900 | | 2025 - 12 | 133.3000 | 123.1000 | 1.6700 | 8.5300 | [48]