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原油月报:供给压力逐渐上升,油价仍有压缩空间-20250801
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-01 10:09

Report Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - As the peak season enters the second half, with OPEC continuing to increase production, the oil price center is expected to move down further. In July, the main driver of crude oil was the peak - season market. The continuous inventory reduction of crude oil and refined oil in Europe and the United States supported the oil price to some extent. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's summer crude oil power generation consumed part of the increased production. Subsequently, the support from the demand side for oil prices will gradually decline, and the supply - side pressure will gradually increase. There is still room for oil prices to compress. The key price to focus on is $60, which is close to the break - even point of new US shale oil wells. The US crude oil production will be a major variable on the supply side. The focus ranges are WTI [60, 70] for the outer market and SC [450, 500] for the inner market [3][97]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - The core driver of the crude oil market was the unexpected peak - season demand for diesel in Europe and the United States [10]. 2. Macroeconomics - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations, which was the fifth consecutive decision to keep the rate unchanged. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised China's 2025 growth rate by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% compared with the April WEO forecast, due to stronger - than - expected economic activity in China in the first half of 2025 and much lower Sino - US actual tariffs than expected in April [3]. - On July 29, the IMF released the latest World Economic Outlook Report, raising the 2025 global economic growth forecast by 0.2% to 3%, mainly because China's economic growth exceeded expectations and the Sino - US tariff level was lower than expected [21]. 3. Supply, Demand, and Inventory Supply - In June 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 219,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,723.5 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's production rose by 173,000 barrels per day to 935,600 barrels per day; Iraq's by 11,000 barrels per day to 394,300 barrels per day; and the UAE's by 83,000 barrels per day to 305,300 barrels per day. Kuwait's production increased by 12,000 barrels per day to 243,600 barrels per day, while Iran's decreased by 62,000 barrels per day to 324,100 barrels per day, and Venezuela's rose by 2,000 barrels per day to 91,000 barrels per day [4][34][35]. - As of the week ending July 25, US crude oil production was 1,331 million barrels per day, up 41,000 barrels per day month - on - month, and the number of US oil rigs was 415, down 7 month - on - month [38]. - As of the week ending July 25, the US net crude oil imports increased. Demand - In July 2025, the EIA, OPEC, and IEA monthly reports estimated the 2025 global crude oil demand at 10,354 million barrels per day, 10,513 million barrels per day, and 10,374 million barrels per day respectively, with growth rates of 80,000 barrels per day, 129,000 barrels per day, and 70,000 barrels per day compared with 2024. The EIA and OPEC July 2025 reports estimated the 2026 global crude oil demand at 10,459 million barrels per day and 10,642 million barrels per day respectively, with growth rates of 105,000 barrels per day and 128,000 barrels per day compared with 2025 [4][42][44]. - As of the week ending July 25, the domestic crude oil processing volume was 17.3731 million tons, down 109,000 tons month - on - month. In June, the monthly crude oil imports were 49.89 million tons, up 7.40% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 279.82 million tons, up 1.57% year - on - year. The domestic refinery capacity utilization rate was 71.55%, the main refinery capacity utilization rate was 81.21%, and the Shandong local refinery capacity utilization rate was 48.16% [54][58]. Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.69 million barrels, up 7.7 million barrels; strategic crude oil inventory was 402.74 million barrels, up 240,000 barrels. US gasoline inventory was 228.41 million barrels, down 2.72 million barrels; and distillate fuel oil inventory was 113.54 million barrels, up 3.64 million barrels [62][64]. - According to Longzhong Information statistics, as of the week ending July 25, China's port inventory was 28.266 million tons, up 187,000 tons, and Shandong refinery in - plant inventory was 2.496 million tons, up 13,000 tons [67]. 4. Spreads and Positions Spreads - WTI's inter - month spreads increased. As of July 30, WTI M1 - M2 was $1.07 per barrel, and M1 - M6 was $3.50 per barrel. Recently, Trump's pressure on Russia over the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a short - term strengthening of oil prices [80]. - The inter - month spreads of the domestic market also increased. - As of July 30, the US gasoline crack spread was $22.48 per barrel, the diesel crack spread was $31.24 per barrel, the 5:3:2 crude oil crack spread was $25.99 per barrel, and the 3:2:1 crack spread was $25.40 per barrel. The domestic refined oil crack spread remained stable [84]. Positions - Information on WTI and Brent positions was provided, but no specific data summary was given. - The SC warehouse receipt volume was at a low level, while the SC total position increased. 5. Summary - The peak season for crude oil is in the second half. As OPEC continues to expand production, the oil price center is expected to move down. In July, the peak - season market, continuous inventory reduction of crude oil and refined oil in Europe and the United States, and Saudi Arabia's summer power - generation consumption of part of the increased production supported the oil price. Subsequently, the demand - side support for oil prices will gradually decline, and the supply - side pressure will increase, with room for oil price compression. The key price to watch is $60, and the US crude oil production is a major supply - side variable. The recommended trading ranges are WTI [60, 70] for the outer market and SC [450, 500] for the inner market [97]. - The report also provided various trading strategies, including futures, options, and hedging strategies, with different recommended intensities [97].