Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is fluctuating, with increased volatility. From a real - world perspective, the near - end warehouse receipt pressure is relatively large, and the market is starting to follow the delivery logic. There is a contradiction between macro - expectations and industrial logic, and the 09 contract is approaching delivery, causing trading to return to reality. There is a possibility of a second round of policy expectation fermentation, but the high inventory in the middle reaches has triggered a negative feedback [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Price Forecast - Glass price is predicted to be in the range of 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 51.76% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 97.8%. Soda ash price is forecasted to be between 1100 - 1500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 39.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.6% [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Hedging Strategies - Glass Inventory Management: For high glass inventory, sell FG2509 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs. For low glass inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1000 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1000 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1]. - Soda Ash Inventory Management: For high soda ash inventory, sell SA2509 futures at 1400 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio. For low soda ash inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Data - Glass Futures: On August 1, 2025, the glass 05 contract was at 1295 (down 0.23% from the previous day), the 09 contract was at 1102 (down 1.34%), and the 01 contract was at 1224 (unchanged). The (5 - 9) month - spread was 193 (up 12), the (9 - 1) month - spread was - 122 (down 15), and the (1 - 5) month - spread was - 71 (up 3) [6]. - Glass Spot: The average price of glass in the Shahe area on August 1, 2025, was 1248, down 19.4 from the previous day. Prices in most regions decreased slightly [7]. - Soda Ash Futures: On August 1, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract was at 1379 (up 0.07% from the previous day), the 09 contract was at 1256 (up 0.72%), and the 01 contract was at 1333 (up 0.6%). The (5 - 9) month - spread was 123 (down 8), the (9 - 1) month - spread was - 77 (up 1), and the (1 - 5) month - spread was - 46 (up 7) [8]. - Soda Ash Spot: The heavy - alkali and light - alkali market prices in most regions remained unchanged on August 1, 2025. The heavy - alkali price in Shahe was 1246, down 1 from the previous day [9].
玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20250801
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-01 10:09