鸡蛋月报：存栏去化节奏与库存拐点博弈，期货行情如何布局-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market in July experienced a "sharp decline - rebound - decline" roller - coaster行情. The current supply - demand contradiction is sharp. With high inventory and a continuous increase in newly - laid hens, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Although the peak - season market is approaching, it is restricted by weak consumer recovery and resistance to high prices. It is expected that the differentiated trend of the egg futures market, with near - term weakness and long - term strength, will continue. [8][40] - The report suggests continuing the 09 - 01 contract reverse spread strategy and continuously monitoring capacity reduction and downstream demand changes. [9][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Futures Prices - Last month, the main contract of egg futures changed from 2508 to 2509. The JD2508 contract hit a record low since its listing this week and continued to decline in subsequent trading days. The JD2509 contract showed an overall weak range - bound trend. As of July 31, the main JD2509 contract closed at 3522 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 1.45%. [5][12] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - In the main production areas, egg prices rose after falling to the lowest point of the year in mid - July, but then declined in the second half of the month due to factors such as excessive price increases inhibiting consumption and an increase in newly - laid hens. As of July 31, the average price in the main production areas was 3.16 yuan per catty, up 0.53 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month. - In the main sales areas, egg prices showed a "first - down - then - up" fluctuation. As of July 31, the average price in the main sales areas was 3.21 yuan per catty, up 0.5 yuan per catty from the beginning of the month. [17] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Laying Hen Inventory - In July, the laying hen inventory remained at a high level. As of the end of July, the national laying hen inventory was close to 1.3 billion, a record high, and it is expected to exceed 1.3 billion in August. The expansion of production capacity is mainly due to the slowdown of old - hen culling by farmers in a state of weak profit, forming a negative cycle of "weak profit - slow culling - high inventory". [7][21] 3.2.2 Old Hen Price - As of July 31, the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was 5.89 yuan per catty, up 26.12% from the beginning of July. The market has no obvious signs of increased old - hen supply, and farmers still have confidence in the peak - season egg market, so the enthusiasm for culling is not high. [24] 3.2.3 Chicken Chick Price - Affected by the market situation of strong supply and weak demand, the price of commercial - layer chicks continued to decline in July. The average price in July was 3.59 yuan per chick, a month - on - month decrease of 7.95%. The pressure on the profit side weakened the replenishment motivation of farmers, and the low utilization rate of hatching eggs by breeding enterprises further suppressed the chick price. [29] 3.2.4 Old - Hen Culling Progress - In July, the culling volume of old hens continued to decline, showing a decreasing trend. The culling rhythm was affected by factors such as egg - price fluctuations, farming expectations, and demand changes. The average culling age of old hens fluctuated slightly, with an overall range of 501 - 504 days. [34] 3.2.5 Laying Hen Farming Cost and Profit - In July, the laying hen farming cost fluctuated slightly in the range of 3.53 - 3.54 yuan per catty, showing a slight downward trend. The farming profit continued to improve, with the loss narrowing from 0.95 yuan per catty at the beginning of the month to 0.29 yuan per catty at the end of the month. [39]