黑色产业数据每日监测-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The black commodity futures market has declined across the board. The five major steel products have seen an increase in inventory and a decrease in apparent demand. The rapid decline of coking coal has led to a decrease in speculative demand, and the short - term futures market still faces correction pressure. However, due to the unproven "anti - involution" expectation and the "steady growth" expectation, along with the impact of coal mine over - production inspections, the steel demand in the off - season is acceptable, and the downward adjustment space of the futures market may be limited [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On August 1st, black commodity futures all turned down. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore were 3,203 yuan/ton, 3,401 yuan/ton, and 783 yuan/ton respectively. The coking coal and coke futures continued to decline significantly, with the decline of coking coal main contract exceeding 7%, and the coking coal main contract switched to 2601 [1] Market Analysis - The Politburo meeting did not release signals of incremental fiscal policies, emphasizing the use of previous policy packages and without more support for the real estate market. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected and downplayed the guidance of a September rate cut, leading to adjustments in risk - asset prices. In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [1] - The supply - demand performance of steel is poor. The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 153,900 tons to 13.5189 million tons, ending a four - week decline. The terminal demand in the off - season is weak, mainly due to the decline in real estate investment and construction. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased to 65.37%, the blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 83.46%, and the average daily pig iron output decreased by 15,200 tons to 2.4071 million tons. The electric arc furnace steel mills increased production and resumed production, with the operating rate and capacity utilization reaching an eight - week high [1] Investment Suggestions - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Adopt a short - term shock strategy and pay attention to the difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coils: Adopt a short - term high - level consolidation strategy and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the shock market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1] Summary - Overall, the inventory of the five major steel products has increased, the apparent demand has decreased, and with the rapid decline of coking coal, the short - term futures market faces correction pressure. But due to certain expectations and the actual situation, the downward adjustment space of the futures market may be limited [1]