方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The exemption of tariffs on imported refined copper in the US will significantly change the global copper trade flow in the second half of the year, with copper resources shifting to non - US markets. The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper are expected to become looser [4]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with imports and processing fees rising, and downstream demand weakening [5]. - The aluminum industry chain is in a weak market sentiment. Aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy are all recommended to be treated with a short - selling mindset [6]. - The tin price is suppressed by the correction of the non - ferrous sector, with weak fundamentals [7]. - The lead price is under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the driving force of the peak season and macro - orientation [8][9]. - The nickel market has an overall oversupply pattern, and the stainless steel market is affected by the black series and the weakness of nickel, with both supply and demand being weak [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous sector fluctuates with the profit - taking in the domestic anti - involution stage. The trade situation is gradually becoming clear, and the non - ferrous metals are in a weak adjustment stage. Key events this week include Sino - US trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate decision, and important economic data releases [13][14][15]. - Investment Recommendations for Each Metal - Copper: The supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be loose. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a support range of 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [4][16]. - Zinc: Supply increases while demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with a support range of 21,600 - 21,800 and a pressure range of 22,800 - 23,100 [5][18]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: The market sentiment is weak. Short - selling is recommended for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, with corresponding support and pressure ranges [6][18]. - Tin: The fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold short positions, with a support range of 250,000 - 255,000 and a pressure range of 270,000 - 290,000 [7][18]. - Lead: It is in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 16,600 - 16,800 and a pressure range of 17,200 - 17,400 [9][19]. - Nickel: The supply is in an oversupply pattern. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with a support range of 115,000 - 116,000 and a pressure range of 122,000 - 123,000 [10][19]. - Stainless Steel: It is in a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to be short - biased, with a support range of 12,300 - 12,400 and a pressure range of 12,800 - 13,000 [10][19]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Futures Closing Prices and Price Changes: Copper closed at 78,040 with a decline of 1.13%; zinc at 22,345 with a decline of 1.43%; aluminum at 20,510 with a decline of 0.56%; alumina at 3222 with a decline of 3.13%; tin at 265,290 with a decline of 0.96%; lead at 16,735 with a decline of 0.92%; nickel at 119,830 with a decline of 1.55%; stainless steel at 12,805 with a decline of 0.89%; and cast aluminum alloy at 19,950 with a decline of 0.60% [20][21]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report provides the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the net long - short position changes and the influence of different forces on various varieties [23]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report presents the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [24][26]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report includes various charts related to the industry chain of each metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends, which help to understand the supply - demand relationship and market conditions of each metal [27][31][33]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides charts on the arbitrage relationships of various non - ferrous metals, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spreads between different contracts [57][60][62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report includes charts related to the options of various non - ferrous metals, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [74][75][77].