冠通研究：基本面偏弱，铜震荡承压

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is under pressure with a weak fundamental outlook and is expected to be volatile. After the implementation of copper tariffs, the market has returned to fundamentals. With prices continuously falling, downstream buyers are purchasing at lower prices, leading to improved trading sentiment. The short - term market trend is bearish, and the price is expected to find support around 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether tonight's non - farm payroll data affects the interest rate cut expectation [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - On August 1, the US imposed a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive manufactured goods, with the scope far lower than market expectations, causing a sharp decline in New York copper prices. The US dollar has been rising, putting pressure on the market. In China, in July, the SMM electrolytic copper production increased by 3.94 million tons month - on - month and 14.21% year - on - year. Although TC/RC fees are still negative, they have stopped falling. Smelters can currently rely on by - products to make up for losses and have raw material reserves, so production enthusiasm is okay. The concentrated maintenance season is expected to be in the third quarter or after a significant reduction in raw material inventory. The future tariff on copper semi - finished products may affect export demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low, rose in the afternoon, and closed lower at 78,400 yuan/ton. The number of long orders from the top twenty decreased by 5,658 to 110,615 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 3,371 to 110,750 hands [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 15 yuan/ton. On July 31, 2025, the LME official price was 9,650 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 44 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of July 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 42.73 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.26 US cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 20,300 tons, an increase of 727 tons from the previous period. As of July 31, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 75,100 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 141,800 tons, a slight increase of 3,550 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 257,900 short tons, an increase of 1,967 short tons from the previous period [8].