Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a cautious bullish view on lithium carbonate [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market is influenced by the "anti-involution" concept, with a stark contrast between strong expectations and weak reality. The compliance risk of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi has become a focal point of market speculation. Overseas imports have declined for two consecutive months, alleviating the overall supply-side pressure. Although the fundamental changes are lagging and July was in a surplus and inventory accumulation pattern, the upstream inventory has gradually shifted to the intermediate links driven by the positive feedback between futures and spot markets. The market is gradually returning to rationality. Currently, the production schedule of cathode factories in August has slightly increased. If there are production cuts or suspensions in Jiangxi lithium mines, there may be a slight shortage of lithium carbonate, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Overall, there are no obvious negative fundamental disturbances, and it is difficult for prices to experience a trend decline. Attention should be paid to the issue of mining licenses in the future [78] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - China's manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, lower than the expected and previous value of 49.7, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity compared to the previous month. The production index and new order index were 50.5% and 49.4% respectively, down 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The Politburo meeting set the tone for the economic work in the second half of the year, with the main core content focusing on "implementing and refining", "boosting consumption", and "governing disorderly competition". The introduction of incremental policies was relatively limited, and strongly expected varieties saw significant corrections. The impact of Sino-US tariffs has gradually weakened. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and Powell did not give a clear indication of a rate cut in September, still believing that tariffs and inflation are full of uncertainties, which cooled the market's expectation of a rate cut in September [3] Supply Side - The estimated output of lithium carbonate in July was about 85,000 tons, a slight increase from the previous month. In July, the futures and spot prices of lithium carbonate rose in tandem, and the hedging profit on the futures market stimulated the resumption of production by previously reduced or suspended production enterprises. China imported 17,700 tons of lithium carbonate in June, a 16% month-on-month and 10% year-on-year decline. As of July 25, the output of lithium carbonate was 18,548 tons, a week-on-week increase of 235 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 45.18%, a week-on-week increase of 0.57 percentage points [3][13] Demand Side - According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 27, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 789,000 units, a 15% year-on-year increase but a 17% month-on-month decrease compared to the same period last July. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 54.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year reached 6.258 million units, a 31% year-on-year increase. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 816,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase but a 20% month-on-month decrease compared to the same period last July. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 54.2%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year reached 7.264 million units, a 35% year-on-year increase. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in six European countries in June was 220,000 units, with a cumulative year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 22% and 16% respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles in the US in June was 110,000 units, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2% and a month-on-month decrease of 11% [4] Inventory - As of July 31, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 141,726 tons, an increase of 3,379 tons from the previous month. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 51,958 tons, a decrease of 6,932 tons from the previous month; the inventory of downstream material factories was 43,880 tons, an increase of 3,383 tons from the previous month; and the inventory in other links was 45,888 tons, an increase of 3,379 tons from the previous month. The number of registered lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 5,545 tons, a decrease of 17,083 tons from the previous month [4] Cost and Profit - As of July 31, the average industry cost was 62,821 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1,247 yuan/ton. The price of African SC 5% lithium ore was quoted at $515/ton, a month-on-month increase of $115/ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $774/ton, a month-on-month increase of $152/ton; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,130 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 545 yuan/ton. The profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 8,459 yuan/ton, a month-on-month recovery of 9,129 yuan/ton [5] Price Overview of the Lithium Battery Industry - The prices of various lithium battery products showed different degrees of increase or decrease in July compared to June. For example, the price of 6% CIF spodumene increased by 24.34% to $774/ton, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.65% to 69,000 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 12.86% to 68,000 yuan/ton [6] Market Review in July - As of July 31, the LC2509 contract closed at 68,280 yuan/ton, a 9.67% increase from the previous month. The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 69,000 yuan/ton, a 12.7% increase from the previous month, and the basis changed from a large discount to a premium. The trading volume of the main contract was 230,000 lots. In July, affected by the macro "anti-involution" expectation, the market's bullish sentiment was high. The sudden shutdown of Qinghai Salt Lake and the ongoing fermentation of the issue of lithium mining licenses in Jiangxi boosted the upward trend of lithium carbonate prices. However, at the end of the month, as the meeting concluded, the market trading gradually returned to the fundamentals, and the price returned to a reasonable level [7] Production and Supply - As of the end of June, the national lithium carbonate production capacity was 2,148,620 tons, unchanged from the previous month. The monthly operating rate was 45.45%, a 5.29 percentage point increase from the previous month. The production in June was 80,962 tons, a 10.9% month-on-month and 23% year-on-year increase. In June, the lithium carbonate production reached a new high, exceeding 80,000 tons. Qinghai Salt Lake entered the seasonal production peak, and the overall operating rate of enterprises increased as some new production capacities were successfully put into operation. In addition, toll processing enterprises resumed production by reducing processing fees. As of July 25, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,548 tons, a week-on-week increase of 235 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 45.18%, a week-on-week increase of 0.57 percentage points [12][13] Import and Export - In June 2025, China imported 17,700 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% month-on-month and 9.6% year-on-year decrease. Among them, 11,900 tons were imported from Chile, a 11.5% month-on-month and 24.3% year-on-year decrease, and 5,094 tons were imported from Argentina, a 23.1% month-on-month decrease but a 48.3% year-on-year increase. The continuous decline in domestic imports in May and June will lead to a decrease in the arrival volume in July - August, alleviating the supply-side pressure marginally. In June 2025, the total import volume of spodumene was about 576,000 tons, a 4.8% month-on-month decrease, equivalent to 46,400 tons of LCE. The import volume from Australia decreased significantly, while the import volumes from Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Nigeria increased to varying degrees [17][20] Terminal Demand - In June, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million units respectively, a 26.4% and 26.7% year-on-year increase, and a -0.2% and +1.7% month-on-month change respectively. The penetration rate was 45.8%. The new energy vehicle market continued to grow in June, benefiting from the trade-in subsidy policy and promotional activities launched by various car companies. However, due to the high penetration rate of new energy vehicles for three consecutive months, the month-on-month growth rate slowed down. In June, China's power battery loading volume was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% month-on-month and 35.9% year-on-year increase. Among them, the loading volume of ternary batteries was 10.7 GWh, a 2.0% month-on-month increase but a 3.4% year-on-year decrease; the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 47.4 GWh, a 1.9% month-on-month and 49.7% year-on-year increase [27] Storage Market - According to TrendForce data, the new energy storage tender market continued to be booming in June, with the new tender volume reaching 9.05 GW/53.19 GWh, a 58%/282% year-on-year and 23%/147% month-on-month increase. The average energy storage duration was 5.9 hours. In terms of price, the average price of 2-hour energy storage systems was 0.641 yuan/Wh, a 16.55% month-on-month increase, and the highest price was 0.792 yuan/Wh. The average price was affected by some high quotes. The average price of 4-hour energy storage systems decreased by 9.75% month-on-month, reaching a record low of 0.432 yuan/Wh. The economic benefits of the energy storage market still face challenges [32] Digital Demand - In the second quarter of 2025, the global smartphone shipments reached 295.2 million units, a 1% year-on-year decline, the first decline in six consecutive quarters. In June, the smartphone production was 108.27 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate turning positive to 8.40%. Globally, Samsung maintained its market-leading position this quarter, accounting for 19% of the market share with its Galaxy A series. Apple ranked second, accounting for 16%, and Xiaomi performed stably this quarter, accounting for 15% of the market share. Affected by the tariff risk, the consumer electronics market remained relatively stable. Most manufacturers reduced production targets to avoid inventory backlogs, but the US market still maintained a relatively high inventory to avoid tariff uncertainties [33] Supply and Demand of Lith-ium Iron Phosphate - As of July 25, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 69,853 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 40 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 61.82%, unchanged from the previous week. This week, the production rhythm of lithium iron phosphate enterprises remained relatively stable. The demand from the power end decreased slightly, while the demand from the energy storage market drove an unexpected increase, but the increase was limited [36] Ternary System Materials - The incremental orders of ternary materials are concentrated in leading enterprises, and production is based on sales [38] Other Cathode Materials - During the off-peak season of terminal demand, the internal operating rates of other cathode materials are differentiated [46] Inventory and Cost - As of July 31, the total inventory of the lithium carbonate industry was 141,726 tons, an increase of 3,379 tons from the previous month, and the warehouse receipt inventory was 5,545 tons, a 17,083-ton decrease from the previous month. This month, the total lithium carbonate inventory continued to increase and reached a new high, but with the increase in speculative demand, the upstream inventory was transferred to the middle and downstream links. At the end of the month, the warehouse receipts faced centralized cancellation, and the decline rate of this round of warehouse receipts was significantly faster. As of July 31, the price of African SC 5% lithium ore was quoted at $515/ton, a month-on-month increase of $115/ton; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $774/ton, a month-on-month increase of $152/ton; and the market price of lithium mica was 2,130 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 545 yuan/ton. The ore price closely followed the lithium salt price, the auction transaction prices of overseas mines were generally high, the market trading recovered, and traders accelerated shipments [54][56] Cost and Profit Analysis - As of July 25, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 62,821 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 865 yuan, and the industry profit was 8,459 yuan/ton, a week-on-week recovery of 5,193 yuan. This week, the raw material price increased rapidly, with a涨幅 exceeding 10%, providing some support for the lower price of lithium carbonate. The futures price was greatly affected by the policy side, and the bullish sentiment of funds was strong. After the synchronous increase of futures and spot prices, the industry profit recovered rapidly. As of July 25, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 61,221 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 79 yuan, and the industry profit was 353 yuan/ton, a week-on-week recovery of 858 yuan. This week, the strong price increase of lithium carbonate and raw materials drove the bullish sentiment in the lithium hydroxide market. The price of lithium hydroxide ended the downward trend and continued to increase, and the industry profit recovered. As of July 25, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 34,402 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1,188 yuan/ton, and the loss was 932 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 5 yuan/ton. The rapid increase in the price of raw material lithium carbonate led to an increase in the quotation of material factories, but the pricing power still lies with downstream battery cell factories, and the price increase was limited. Material factories mainly adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and the procurement sentiment was not high. The cost transmission from the upstream was blocked, and the profit space of downstream industries was under pressure [60][62][65] Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, inventory, and supply-demand gap of lithium carbonate from January to August 2025. The overall supply and demand situation is relatively complex, with fluctuations in production, imports, and demand in different months, and the inventory also shows corresponding changes [77] Views and Strategies - The market is gradually returning to rationality. Currently, the production schedule of cathode factories in August has slightly increased. If there are production cuts or suspensions in Jiangxi lithium mines, there may be a slight shortage of lithium carbonate, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction. Overall, there are no obvious negative fundamental disturbances, and it is difficult for prices to experience a trend decline. Attention should be paid to the issue of mining licenses in the future. The unilateral strategy is to participate in long positions at low prices, with a reference range of [65,000, 77,000]. In the long term, the market remains in a surplus pattern, and production enterprises can conduct hedging on the futures market when the price rebounds according to their own profit levels [78][79]
碳酸锂月报：供应端扰动尚未消退，碳酸锂谨慎看多-20250801
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-01 10:19