Dongguan Securities·2025-08-01 10:19Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [51]. Core Viewpoints - The implementation of childcare subsidies is expected to boost demand in the dairy sector, with a national standard of 3,600 yuan per child per year starting from January 1, 2025 [46]. - The report highlights the performance of various segments, noting that all sub-sectors underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index during the review period [9][11]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong certainty in high-end liquor, such as Kweichow Moutai, and also mentions potential in the beer and seasoning sectors due to seasonal demand increases [46][49]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From July 18 to July 31, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index rose by 1.02%, ranking 25th among Shenwan's primary industries, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.74 percentage points [9][11]. - Approximately 37% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during this period, with notable gainers including Sunshine Dairy (+35.17%) and BeiYinMei (+22.40%) [13]. Industry Data Tracking - Liquor Sector: Prices for top brands like Feitian Moutai and Guojiao 1573 remained stable at 1,870 yuan and 835 yuan per bottle, respectively [19]. - Seasoning Sector: The price of soybean meal increased by 2.68% month-on-month, while white sugar prices decreased by 0.82% [22]. - Beer Sector: Barley prices rose by 0.45% month-on-month, with aluminum prices increasing by 0.15% [27]. - Dairy Sector: Fresh milk prices decreased to 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 0.33% month-on-month [34]. - Meat Sector: The average wholesale price of pork fell to 20.45 yuan per kilogram, down 0.18 yuan from the previous period [36]. Important News - Beer exports saw a significant increase of 64.3% in June, while imports decreased by 20.1% [38]. - The report notes a stable price index for national liquor, with no significant fluctuations observed [39]. - The first half of 2025 saw a decline in profits for the beverage manufacturing sector, with a 2.1% year-on-year decrease [41]. Company Announcements - East Peng Beverage: Reported a 36.37% increase in total revenue for the first half of 2025 [44]. - Jin Zai Food: Announced a share buyback plan, purchasing 100,000 shares at prices between 12.67 and 12.70 yuan [45].