海外利率FOMC会议追踪系列点评：9月降息仍需等待数据支持

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained the federal funds rate at the 4.25-4.50% range, consistent with market expectations [3] - Economic growth has shifted from a "solid pace" to a "moderate" pace, with consumer spending weakening and the housing market remaining sluggish. The Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is reported at 3.0%, primarily driven by a decrease in net imports [4] - Inflation data has shown marginal strengthening, with the June PCE price index increasing by 2.6%, surpassing expectations of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4%. The core PCE price index also rose by 2.8%, indicating uncertainty in the inflation trajectory [5] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the potential for a rate cut in September hinges on upcoming data, particularly focusing on core PCE price index trends and unemployment rates. The FOMC will closely monitor these indicators to assess economic balance [5] - There is a noted division among FOMC voting members, with two members voting against maintaining the current rate, highlighting a rare occurrence of dissent within the board. This indicates a split in perspectives among the FOMC members [6]