2025年8月份投资策略报告：震荡整固中夯实上行基础-20250801

Market Performance Overview - In July 2025, major indices experienced strong upward fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching above 3600 points. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.20%, the ChiNext Index by 8.14%, and the STAR 50 Index by 4.43%. However, the Northbound 50 Index fell by 1.68% [5][10][41]. Economic Environment Analysis - The IMF raised its global economic growth forecast, predicting a growth rate of 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected global economic activity due to tariff expectations. However, these forecasts remain below the pre-pandemic average growth rates of 3.3% and 3.7% for 2024 [15][37]. - The domestic GDP growth rate for the first half of 2025 was recorded at 5.3%, indicating that achieving the annual target of 5% is feasible. However, structural issues within the economy remain unresolved, necessitating further strengthening of the economic foundation [18][40]. Policy Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need for continuous and flexible macroeconomic policies, focusing on stabilizing the economy and enhancing domestic and international dual circulation. It highlighted the importance of implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policies to release policy effects [25][38]. - The meeting also indicated a shift in the real estate sector from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement," suggesting a focus on urban renewal and enhancing housing quality [30][38]. Sector Recommendations - The report suggests an overweight allocation in sectors such as finance, machinery, public utilities, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and electric equipment for August [41][42]. - In the finance sector, banks are expected to benefit from a shift in investment towards low-risk, high-dividend stocks, while securities firms are likely to see growth due to increased market activity and favorable mid-year performance forecasts [43][44]. - The machinery sector is anticipated to experience growth driven by increased domestic demand and recovery in overseas markets, particularly in the robotics and construction machinery segments [45]. - In public utilities, the transition to a new energy system and the establishment of coal power capacity pricing mechanisms are expected to enhance the performance of compliant coal power companies [46][47]. - The TMT sector is poised for growth, particularly in semiconductors and telecommunications, driven by domestic production and technological advancements [48][49].