养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Report's Core View - Soybean Oil: The improvement of weather in the main soybean - producing areas in the US has led to a decline in US soybeans, dragging down domestic beans. There is no obvious progress in soybean imports from the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The export of about one million tons of soybean oil from China, fewer oilseed purchases in the fourth quarter, and an increase in direct imports of protein meal are expected to converge the oil mill's profit, which is beneficial to the price of oils. It is recommended to buy on dips for the soybean oil 2601 contract. Support is at 8000 - 8030 yuan/ton, and resistance is at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [3]. - Rapeseed Oil: Since July, the procurement and arrival of rapeseed in China have decreased, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory has declined from its high. However, it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years. With fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, there is an expectation of future inventory reduction. The import profit of new - crop rapeseed is okay, but the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations remains. It is advisable to trade within a range, buy on dips, and exit long positions at high levels. Support is at 9300 - 9330, and resistance is at 9683 - 9790 [3]. - Palm Oil: High - frequency data shows good production of Malaysian palm oil but weak export demand, increasing the inventory pressure in July. The willingness of the origin to support prices has weakened, improving the domestic import profit and increasing domestic inventory. The upward momentum of the futures price has weakened, with a short - term need for shock adjustment. Indonesia's palm oil production is lower than expected, and its inventory is at a low level. The US biodiesel policy is beneficial to the long - term demand for US soybean oil. From the perspective of the international soybean - palm oil price difference, palm oil is cost - effective, and there is restocking demand from India and China. There is support below the futures price. Indonesia is preparing for the B50 biodiesel test, potentially beneficial to the long - term price. It is recommended to buy on dips. Support is at 8704 - 8796, and resistance is at 9480 - 9490 [4]. - Soybean No. 2 and Soybean Meal: There is no obvious progress in soybean imports from the Sino - US economic and trade talks. The improvement of the good - rate of US soybeans and favorable weather in the main producing areas have led to a bottom - building of CBOT soybean futures prices. The increase in imports of low - priced soybean meal from Argentina and the promotion of soybean meal reduction and substitution in China have led to a continuous decline in soybean meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The support for the main soybean meal contract is at 2930 - 2950 yuan/ton, and the resistance is at 3080 - 3100 yuan/ton. The soybean No. 2 main 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with resistance at 3750 - 3800 and support at 3550 - 3560 yuan/ton [4]. - Rapeseed Meal: Rapeseed meal shows a situation of both weak supply and demand. The cost - effectiveness of rapeseed meal is poor, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the third quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. Support is at 2600 - 2621, and resistance is at 2791 - 2855 [4]. - Corn and Corn Starch: The external market is under pressure from the harvest in South America and the expected increase in US corn planting area. The domestic market is in a game between the release of old - crop corn and tight supply in some areas. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. The support for the corn 09 contract is at 2250 - 2260, and the resistance is at 2430 - 2450. For the corn starch 09 contract, the support is at 2600 - 2620, and the resistance is at 2830 - 2840 [5]. - Soybean No. 1: The gradual listing of new soybeans has increased supply, suppressing domestic soybean prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the main soybean No. 1 contract. The resistance for the 09 contract is at 4250 - 4300 yuan/ton, and the support is at 4000 - 4030 yuan/ton [6]. - Peanut: The low carry - over inventory of old - crop peanuts, the impact of the civil unrest in Sudan and the delay of port opening in Senegal on imports, and the high - level planting area and expected increase in yield of new - crop peanuts have different impacts on different contracts. It is recommended to take partial profit on short positions near the support level. The support for the 10 contract is at 8004 - 8020, and the resistance is at 8392 - 8398 [6]. - Live Pig: The futures price of live pigs is near - strong and far - weak. The spot price is likely to rise seasonally in August. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies for the 09 contract and wait for an opportunity to buy the 2511 contract on dips after the market cools down and the spot price rises [7]. - Egg: The egg 08 futures price has fallen back to the spot price, and the 09 contract has broken through the range. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling, pay attention to the positive spread between September and January, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract on dips. The reference range is 3500 - 3800 points [8]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations a. Market Analysis - Oilseeds: Soybean No. 1 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Soybean No. 2 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see; Peanut 10 is expected to be weakly bearish, and it is recommended to take partial profit on short positions [11]. - Oils: Soybean oil 01 is expected to be strongly bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips; Rapeseed oil 09 is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to buy on dips; Palm 09 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - Protein: Soybean meal 09 is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see; Rapeseed meal 09 is expected to be strongly bullish, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. - Energy and By - products: Corn 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips; Corn starch 09 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [11]. - Livestock: Live pig 09 is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies; Egg 09 is expected to find the bottom, and it is recommended to buy on dips [11]. b. Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - month Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see for most varieties, except for the positive spread for soybean meal 11 - 1 and the positive spread for live pig 9 - 1 and egg 9 - 1 [12][13]. - Inter - commodity Arbitrage: For oils, it is recommended to be bearish on 09 soybean oil - palm oil, bullish on 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and wait and see for 09 rapeseed oil - palm oil; For protein, 09 soybean meal - rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level; For the oil - meal ratio, it is recommended to go long on the 09 soybean oil - meal ratio and wait and see for the 09 rapeseed oil - meal ratio; For energy and by - products, it is recommended to wait and see for 09 starch - corn [13]. c. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies There are data on spot prices, price changes, and basis changes for various varieties, but no specific strategies are mentioned other than the data presentation [14]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Tables a. Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: There are data on the import cost of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates [16]. - Weekly Data: There are data on the inventory and operating rate of beans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [18]. b. Feed - Daily Data: There are data on the import cost of corn from different countries and different months [18]. - Weekly Data: There are data on the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. c. Livestock - There are daily and weekly data on live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, production, consumption, and profit - related data [20][21][22][23][24]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock End (Live Pigs and Eggs): There are charts showing the closing price of the main live pig contract, the closing price of the main egg contract, spot prices, and other related data [25][28][29][34]. - Oils and Oilseeds: There are charts showing the production, export, inventory, and other data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts [37][47][51]. - Feed End: There are charts showing the inventory, consumption, and profit - related data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal [55][57][59]. Part Four: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils There are charts showing the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [71][72]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils There are charts showing the warehouse receipt situation of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [74][76][79].