有色金属周度报告-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most metal prices in the domestic market declined this week, with significant drops in industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and other varieties. The prices of some metals' spot and futures showed different trends. The inventories of copper in the three major exchanges continued to rise, and the copper concentrate processing fee remained at a historical low. The demand side of copper presented a mixed situation, with growth in the automotive and new - energy vehicle sectors but declines in the real - estate and photovoltaic sectors. Under the background of the "anti - involution" policy, the output of industrial silicon and polysilicon increased in July, and the futures prices of related varieties may be adjusted in the short term and face long - term over - capacity issues [2][11][16][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - This week, the prices of most metals in the domestic market declined. The futures prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon all decreased, with the largest decline of 14.41% in the lithium carbonate 2509 contract. The spot prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and industrial silicon also decreased, while the spot prices of alumina, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon increased, with the largest increase of 5.71% in lithium carbonate [2]. 3.2 Copper Inventory Trends in the Three Major Exchanges - As of July 25, the SHFE copper inventory was 84,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,100 tons (+3.80%). As of August 1, the LME copper inventory was 141,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,300 tons (+10.35%). As of July 24, the COMEX copper inventory was 257,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons (+4.03%). The inventories in the three major exchanges continued to rise, and non - US copper inventories flowed back [11][16]. 3.3 Copper Supply and Demand - Supply: As of July 31, the spot TC of copper concentrate dropped to - 42.50 dollars per ton, a slight increase of 0.4 dollars per ton. The expectation of a tight supply at the mine end still exists, and the processing fee remains at a historical low [19]. - Demand: In June, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased by 35% and 36.9% year - on - year respectively, accounting for 45.8% of the total new vehicle sales. From January to June, the new construction area of housing decreased by 20%, and the completion area decreased by 14.8%. In June, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 84.54% [23][25][27]. 3.4 "Anti - Involution" Policy Summary - Since 2024, a series of policies have been introduced to address "involution - style" competition, including measures to promote large - scale equipment updates, eliminate backward production capacity, and prevent low - price and disorderly competition. In June and July 2025, specific policies such as setting a price floor for polysilicon, raising the access threshold for new projects, and strengthening governance of low - price competition were introduced [28]. 3.5 Strategy Recommendations - Short - term: Pay attention to position management and beware of repeated risks. - Long - term: Entering the wet season, focus on the inventory clearance speed of the industry, and the long - term over - capacity situation remains [31][32]. 3.6 Key Variety Weekly Summary - This week, the three varieties on the GZEX adjusted across the board. The weekly decline of the industrial silicon 2509 contract was 12.60%, the polysilicon 2509 contract was 3.58%, and the lithium carbonate 2509 contract was 14.41%. The polysilicon market fluctuated widely this week, mainly due to the spread and clarification of a "small composition" about polysilicon storage. The output of industrial silicon and polysilicon increased in July. In the short term, the futures prices may be adjusted, and attention should be paid to repeated risks [30].