投资有风险，入市需谨慎 新纪元期货研究 9/5/2025 黑色系周度报告 石磊 从业资格证号：F0270570 投资咨询证号：Z0011147 时卓然 研究助理 从业资格证号：F03142612 黑色系一周行情回顾 | 品种 | 合约 | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | 基差（未 折算） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/8/29 | 2025/9/5 | 变动 | 涨跌幅（%） | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3160.0 | 3143.0 | -17.0 | -1 | 3240.0 | 97.0 | | 热卷 | HC2601 | 3346.0 | 3340.0 | -6.0 | -0.2 | 3380.0 | 40.0 | | 铁矿石 | I2601 | 787.5 | 789.5 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 790.0 | 0.5 | | 焦炭 | J2601 | 1643.0 | 1646.5 | 3.5 | 0.2 | 1670.0 | 23.5 | | 焦煤 | JM26 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly methanol data report released by New Era Futures Research on September 5, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains loose, with prices fluctuating within a range and being mostly affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants [21] - In the long - term, the supply - side pressure of methanol persists, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [21] Group 4: Price Trends - The futures price of MA2601 increased from 2361 yuan/ton to 2415 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.29%. The basis decreased from - 136 yuan/ton to - 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.94%. The price of methanol in Taicang dropped from 2298.4 yuan/ton to 2255.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.88%. The methanol CFR price decreased from 260 dollars/ton to 258.33 dollars/ton, a decline of 0.64% [4] - Among downstream products, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong remained unchanged, the price of glacial acetic acid in Jiangsu increased from 2229 yuan/ton to 2278.75 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.23%, the price of dimethyl ether in Henan remained unchanged, and the price of MTBE in Shandong increased from 4980 yuan/ton to 5061.25 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.63% [4] Group 5: Cost and Profit - This week, coal - based methanol profit slightly decreased due to the continuous decline and subsequent rebound of coal prices and increased freight. The profits of natural - gas - based and coke - oven - gas - based methanol recovered due to cost reduction [9] - As the methanol price decreased, the downstream profits significantly recovered, especially acetic acid, with a month - on - month increase of 23.69% [10] Group 6: Supply Side - As of September 4, the weekly plant capacity utilization rate was 86.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.77 percentage points. Methanol production was 1.9628 million tons, an increase of 43,700 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% [13] - This week, the total restored capacity of returning plants was about 3.4 million tons, and the total lost capacity of maintenance plants was about 700,000 tons. Next week, some plants are planned for maintenance and some for resumption, with the resumption volume slightly larger than the maintenance volume [13] Group 7: Demand Side - With the gradual recovery of MTO profit, the MTO operating rate remained stable but decreased slightly due to the maintenance of Ningxia Baofeng's olefin plant on Thursday. Traditional downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs and decreased slightly due to some plant maintenance [16] - Although the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has arrived, the actual demand fulfillment is slightly poor, and attention should be paid to whether future demand can meet expectations [16] Group 8: Inventory - As of September 3, the total port inventory of Chinese methanol was 1.4277 million tons, an increase of 128,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 9.88%. The inventory accumulation rate at ports narrowed compared to last week but still exceeded 1.4 million tons. The inland inventory was 341,100 tons, an increase of 7700 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.31%, remaining at a low - inventory level [19] Group 9: Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation of methanol remains loose, with prices fluctuating within a range and being mostly affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of olefin plants [21] - In the long - term, the supply - side pressure of methanol persists, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to the actual demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the impact of gas restrictions in Iran on methanol imports [21] - Next week's key points of concern include the recovery of coastal olefin plants, methanol inventory accumulation pressure, coal price impact, and macro - market sentiment [21]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyester Sector Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhang Weiwei [3] Group 2: Macro and Crude Oil News - OPEC+ may decide to increase oil production in October, potentially starting to lift the second-layer production cut plan with a reduction of about 1.65 million barrels per day, 1.6% of global demand, more than a year ahead of schedule. The market expected a 2 - 3 - month pause in production increase. The OPEC+ meeting on September 7 is awaited [4]. - Trump hinted at imposing second and third - stage oil sanctions on Russia, and the US hopes Europe will stop buying Russian oil and join proposed sanctions against countries that continue to buy [4]. - Fed officials including Williams, Waller, and Kashkari indicated that it is appropriate to cut interest rates in response to rising risks in the job market and the current economic situation [4]. - The US added 54,000 ADP jobs in August, lower than the expected 65,000. The initial jobless claims last week increased to 237,000. The market has priced in a 98% chance of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed at the September 17 policy meeting [5]. - The US Labor Day marks the end of the summer travel season, leading to a seasonal decline in gasoline consumption. As of August 29, the US daily crude oil production was 13.423 million barrels, down 16,000 barrels from the previous week but up 123,000 barrels from the same period last year. The commercial crude oil inventory increased by 2.42 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 1.68 million barrels [6]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Prices | Type | 2025/9/4 | 2025/8/28 | Week Change | Week - on - Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI Crude Oil Continuous (USD/barrel) | 63.3 | 64.27 | - 1 | - 1.51% | | Naphtha (USD/ton) | 592.5 | 593.88 | - 1.38 | - 0.23% | | PX511 (CNY/ton) | 6680 | 6886 | - 206 | - 2.99% | | PX CFR: Taiwan Province (CNY/ton) | 6780.87 | 6951.22 | - 170.35 | - 2.45% | | TA601 (CNY/ton) | 4656 | 4792 | - 136 | - 2.84% | | PTA Spot Benchmark Price (CNY/ton) | 4615 | 4775 | - 160 | - 3.35% | | EG601 (CNY/ton) | 4357 | 4465 | - 108 | - 2.42% | | Ethylene Glycol East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 4456 | 4525 | - 69 | - 1.52% | | PF511 (CNY/ton) | 6330 | 6526 | - 196 | - 3.00% | | Polyester Staple Fiber East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 6450 | 6555 | - 105 | - 1.60% | | PR511 (CNY/ton) | 5820 | 5982 | - 162 | - 2.71% | | Polyester Bottle Chip East China Mainstream Price (CNY/ton) | 5790 | 5860 | - 70 | - 1.19% | [8] Group 4: PX Supply - Domestic PX supply was stable this week. As of September 4, the domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 84.63% (unchanged), and the weekly output was 709,800 tons (unchanged). Asian PX supply was also stable, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 74.46% (unchanged) [11]. - Next week, Dalian Fujia's 700,000 - ton and Tianjin Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton PX plants will be under maintenance, while Fuhai Chuang's 1.6 - million - ton plant is planned to restart, and the PX weekly output is expected to increase slightly [11]. Group 5: PTA Supply and Inventory - This week, the overall domestic PTA supply decreased due to the co - existence of maintenance and restart of two sets of Taihua's plants and the supply reduction caused by the maintenance of Dushan Energy last week. As of September 4, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 69.48% (- 1.38 percentage points), and the weekly output was 1.2893 million tons (- 23,600 tons). Next week, Hengli Huizhou has a restart plan, and the domestic supply is expected to increase slightly [14]. - This week, PTA social inventory continued to decline. As of September 4, the available days of PTA in - plant inventory were 3.9 days (+ 0.09 days), the PTA inventory of polyester plants was 7.05 days (- 0.50 days), and the PTA social inventory was about 3.3795 million tons (- 152,600 tons) [14]. Group 6: Ethylene Glycol Supply and Inventory - This week, the domestic ethylene glycol supply increased as multiple plants increased their loads. As of September 4, the domestic ethylene glycol weekly average capacity utilization rate was 67.45% (+ 2.34 percentage points), including 66.84% for integrated plants (+ 1.64 percentage points) and 68.34% for coal - based ethylene glycol plants (+ 3.46 percentage points), and the weekly output was 410,000 tons (+ 14,200 tons). Xinjiang Tianye and Inner Mongolia Jianyuan plants are planned to be under maintenance, and the domestic supply is expected to decrease slightly next week [18]. - This week, the port inventory of ethylene glycol decreased. As of September 4, the total inventory in East China ports was 376,300 tons, down 36,900 tons from last Thursday and 13,300 tons from this Monday. Although the arriving goods will increase next week, the inland supply will decrease, and the port may continue to reduce inventory [18]. Group 7: Polyester Sector - The weekly average polyester operating rate was 87.33%, up 0.67 percentage points from the previous week [19]. - This week, the inventory of polyester filament and staple fiber increased [22]. Group 8: Terminal Market - As of September 4, the operating rate of textile looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.42% (+ 0.44), the order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 13.89 days (+ 1.17 days), and the inventory days of grey cloth were 26.59 days (- 0.32 days) [28]. Group 9: Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The supply is recovering, but the overall pressure is not high. The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season has started, but the actual improvement in demand is limited. The fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the polyester sector will passively follow the cost fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting results and the impact of anti - involution sentiment [30]. - Medium - and long - term: The demand is expected to improve, and the operating center of the polyester sector tends to move up [31]. - Next week's focus and risk warnings include geopolitical situation changes, the OPEC+ meeting, macro - market sentiment, and the operation of upstream and downstream plants [31]

三大油脂周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250905 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内三大油脂现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.8.29 | 2025.9.5 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅% | 现货指标 | 2025.8.29 | 2025.9.5 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅% | | 棕榈油 | P2601 | 9316 | 9526 | 210 | 2.25 | 中国：现货价：棕榈油： 生意社 | 9532 | 9400 | -132 | -1.38 | | 菜油 | OI2601 | 9789 | 9818 | 29 | 0.30 | 中国：现货价：菜油： 生意社 | 9900 | 9922 | 22 | 0.22 | | 豆油 | Y2601 | 8358 | 8450 | 92 | 1.10 | 中国：现货价：豆油： 生意社 | 8428 | 8528 | 100 | 1.19 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, corporate earnings have not significantly improved. After repeated digestion of previous policy benefits, market bullish sentiment has cooled. There is a risk of adjustment in stock indices due to profit - taking pressure. Gold has accelerated its short - term rise driven by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and risk - aversion sentiment, but attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [42]. - In the medium - to long - term, the valuation of stock indices is mainly dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end comes from the recovery of risk appetite. Stock indices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Gold may face a deep - adjustment risk due to the fading of uncertainties from US tariff policies, the potential easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the repeated digestion of the Fed's September interest rate cut expectations [42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Macroeconomic Data - In August 2025, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining in the contraction range for 5 consecutive months. Industrial production expansion accelerated, demand improved marginally, but external demand faced significant downward pressure, and the business climate of small and medium - sized enterprises remained weak [3][4]. 3.2. Stock Index Fundamental Data - **Corporate Earnings**: Due to weak terminal demand, downstream enterprises face great operating pressure. They cannot transfer production costs to end - consumers, resulting in a long - standing phenomenon of increasing revenue without increasing profits. Some industries are still in the active de - stocking phase, with finished - product inventories continuing to decline [18]. - **Funding and Liquidity**: The margin balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased slightly. The central bank conducted 1.0684 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1.2047 trillion yuan [22]. 3.3. Gold Fundamental Data - **Inflation and Consumption**: The US core PCE price index in July increased by 2.9% year - on - year (previous value: 2.8%), rising for 3 consecutive months and reaching a new high since February. Personal consumption expenditure increased by 0.5% month - on - month, 0.2 percentage points faster than the previous month. US tariff policies are affecting prices, suppressing consumer confidence and consumption expenditure [28]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold futures' warehouse receipts and inventory have been rising, indicating an increase in physical gold delivery demand and a resurgence of bullish sentiment in the market [39]. 3.4. Strategy Recommendation - **Stock Indices**: Although the official manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly in July, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, with insufficient demand being the main contradiction. The previous sharp rise in stock index futures was driven by multiple factors such as policies, funds, and sentiment. However, the inflection point of corporate earnings growth has not arrived. As policy benefits are repeatedly digested, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and short - term adjustments are expected [41]. - **Gold**: Multiple Fed officials have made dovish remarks, suggesting that a September interest rate cut is highly likely. The controversy over Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook has intensified market concerns about central bank independence, driving up the gold price to a new record high. Attention should be paid to the risk of increased volatility [41].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 5, 2025 [1] Group 2: Metal Price Movements - Copper: The futures price of CU2510 rose from 79,410 to 80,140, a weekly increase of 0.92%. The spot price of 1 copper in Shanghai increased from 79,350 to 79,970, a rise of 0.78% [2]. - Aluminum: The futures price of AL2510 dropped from 20,740 to 20,695, a weekly decrease of 0.22%. The spot price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai decreased from 20,720 to 20,650, a decline of 0.34% [2]. - Zinc: The futures price of ZN2510 rose slightly from 22,140 to 22,155, a weekly increase of 0.07%. The spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai increased from 22,030 to 22,040, a rise of 0.05% [2]. - Lead: The futures price of PB2510 rose from 16,880 to 16,900, a weekly increase of 0.12%. The spot price of 1 lead ingot remained unchanged at 16,725 [2]. - Nickel: The futures price of NI2510 dropped from 121,700 to 121,310, a weekly decrease of 0.32%. The spot price of 1 electrolytic nickel decreased from 122,400 to 121,700, a decline of 0.57% [2]. - Alumina: The futures price of AO2601 dropped from 3036 to 3006, a weekly decrease of 0.99%. The spot price of alumina in Foshan decreased from 3240 to 3210, a decline of 0.93% [2]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of SI2511 rose from 8390 to 8820, a weekly increase of 5.13%. The spot price of 553 silicon decreased from 9400 to 9300, a decline of 1.06% [2]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of LC2511 dropped from 77,180 to 74,260, a weekly decrease of 3.78%. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) decreased from 83,700 to 75,400, a decline of 9.92% [2]. - Polysilicon: The futures price of PS2511 rose from 49,555 to 56,735, a weekly increase of 14.49%. The spot price of N - type polysilicon material increased from 49,000 to 51,600, a rise of 5.31% [2]. Group 3: Metal Inventory Changes - Copper: As of September 5, SHFE copper inventory was 81,900 tons, a 2.76% increase from last week. LME copper inventory was 158,300 tons, a 0.19% increase. As of September 4, COMEX copper inventory was 302,700 tons, a 9.99% increase [12][13]. - Zinc: As of September 5, LME zinc inventory was 54,100 tons, a 4.25% decrease from last week. SHFE zinc inventory was 40,800 tons, a 7.37% increase [22]. - Aluminum: As of September 5, LME aluminum inventory was 484,700 tons, an increase of 3625 tons from last week. SHFE aluminum inventory was 124,100 tons, a decrease of 1518 tons. As of September 4, COMEX aluminum inventory was 9511 metric tons, a decrease of 25 metric tons [36][37]. - Alumina: As of September 5, SHFE alumina inventory was 112,300 tons, an increase of 14,500 tons from last week [29]. Group 4: Processing Fees and Index Changes - Copper Concentrate: As of September 4, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 40.60 dollars/ton, rising to 0.46 dollars/ton weekly, with a continued tight supply expectation at the mine end [16]. - Lithium Spodumene Concentrate: As of September 5, the CIF China index dropped to 871 dollars/ton, a decrease of 23 dollars from August 29 [18]. - Zinc Concentrate: As of September 5, the TC of zinc concentrate at major ports was 90 dollars/ton, a significant increase of 15 dollars from last week [23]. Group 5: Supply - Side Analysis - Bauxite: Supply disturbances have暂缓, but there is still room for fermentation. High inventory and demand growth, along with decreased shipments from Guinea, are in a game. The price of imported bauxite is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term [24][26]. - Alumina: Supply - side开工 decreased slightly, and inventory continued to increase. The market is in an overall oversupply situation [27][29]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Supply - side开工 maintained a high level. Due to high profits, electrolytic aluminum enterprises have a strong willingness to start, with an annual 2025开工 rate above 95%. However, the available primary aluminum in the market is limited, and the overall inventory is at a low level [30][34]. Group 6: Demand - Side Analysis - Automobile: In July, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3% and 10.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12%. In July, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4%. From January to July, production and sales were 8.232 million and 8.22 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 39.2% and 38.5% [41]. - Real Estate: From January to July, the new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The new residential construction area was 258.81 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The housing completion area was 250.34 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. The residential completion area was 180.67 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3% [43]. - Power Generation: As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. The installed wind power capacity was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to July, the new installed photovoltaic capacity was 223.25GW, and in July it was 11.64GW, a month - on - month decrease of 18.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 44.7% [45]. Group 7: Strategy Recommendations Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum - Short - term: Alumina will run weakly and volatilely. For SHFE aluminum, it is advisable to buy on dips, focusing on the fulfillment of the peak - season demand expectation [46][47]. - Medium - to - long - term: Entering the downstream consumption peak season, pay attention to downstream order transactions. If consumption recovers, SHFE aluminum has upward momentum [48]. Polysilicon - Short - term: Frequent news disturbances lead to wide - range price fluctuations. Be vigilant about market sentiment changes, and do not over - position [49][50]. - Medium - to - long - term: The actual downstream demand improvement is limited, and the industry inventory remains high [51].

甲醇数据周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250829 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 甲醇期现货及其下游价格走势 | | 周总结 | 2025/8/29 | 2025/8/22 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | MA2601 | 2361 | 2405 | -44 | -1.83% | 元/吨 | | | 基差 | -136 | -110 | -26 | -23.64% | 元/吨 | | 价格 | 甲醇（太仓） | 2298.4 | 2359.6 | -61.20 | -2.59% | 元/吨 | | | 甲醇CFR | 262 | 261.4 | 0.60 | 0.23% | 美元/吨 | | 下游 | 甲醛（山东） | 1040 | 1050 | -10.00 | -0.95% | 元/吨 | | | 冰醋酸（江苏） | 2223.75 | 2190 | 33.75 | 1.54% | 元/吨 | | | 二甲醚（河南） | 3400 ...

饲料养殖周度报告 新纪元期货研究20250829 葛妍 从业资格证号：F3052060 投资咨询证号：Z0017892 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要饲料养殖期现货价格走势 | 品 种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 周涨跌幅 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025/8/28 | 2025/8/20 | | 周变动 | | | 现货指标 | 2025/8/28 | 2025/8/20 | 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | （%) | | | | | | | （%) | | 豆 粕 | M2601 | 3039 | 3160 | -121 | 00 . | -3 . | 83 | 豆粕 ： 43%蛋 白 汇总 ： 价格 山 ： | 2980 | 3020 | -40 | 00 . | -1 32 . | | 菜 粕 | RM601 | 2483 | 2627 | -14 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, stock index futures have risen sharply due to policy, capital, and sentiment factors, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so be wary of adjustments caused by profit - taking. Gold rebounds in the short - term, but pay attention to increased volatility risks. In the medium - to long - term, the stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation, and gold faces a risk of deep adjustment [32]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to July this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the inventory of finished products increased by 2.4% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling for four consecutive months, indicating insufficient terminal demand and high operating pressure on downstream enterprises [4]. 3.2 Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Corporate Earnings - The decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size has narrowed marginally, but there is a differentiation in operating efficiency among different industries. The profits of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries maintain rapid growth, while those of industries such as textiles, chemical fibers, and plastics decline more [15]. 3.2.2 Capital - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has exceeded 2.2 trillion yuan, hitting a record high. The central bank has carried out 2273.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations this week, achieving a net investment of 496.1 billion yuan [19]. 3.3 Gold Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Risk - free Interest Rate: Holding Cost, Inflation Level - In the US, durable goods orders decreased by 2.8% month - on - month in July, and the consumer confidence index dropped from 98.7 to 97.4 in August, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activities and pressure on employment. The market has repeatedly digested the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the US Treasury yield has declined slightly [22]. 3.3.2 US Consumer Confidence Index, Employment Situation - Affected by Trump's tariff policy, US manufacturing activities have slowed down significantly, downstream durable goods orders have declined, and employment is under pressure [22]. 3.3.3 Domestic and Foreign Gold Inventory Situation - Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory have increased significantly, while New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and market bullish sentiment has cooled [29].

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 新纪元期货研究 8/29/2025 黑色系周度报告 石磊 从业资格证号：F0270570 投资咨询证号：Z0011147 时卓然 研究助理 从业资格证号：F03142612 黑色系一周行情回顾 | 品种 | 合约 | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | 基差（未 折算） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/29 | 变动 | 涨跌幅（%） | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2510 | 3119 | 3090 | -29.0 | -0.9 | 3270 | 180.0 | | 热卷 | HC2601 | 3361 | 3346 | -15.0 | -0.4 | 3380 | 34.0 | | 铁矿石 | I2601 | 770 | 787.5 | 17.5 | 2.3 | 790 | 2.5 | | 焦炭 | J2601 | 1679 | 1643 | -35.5 | -2.1 | 1670 | 27.0 | | 焦煤 | JM2601 | 1162 | ...