中盛期货 三大油脂周度报告 中盛期货 20260123 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 三大油脂基差变化情况 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 国内三大油脂现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2026.1.16 | 2026.1.23 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅% | 现货指标 | 2026.1.16 | 2026.1.23 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅% | | 棕榈油 | P2605 | 8674 | 8910 | 236 | 2.72 | 中国：现货价：棕榈油： 生意社 | 8630 | 8870 | 240 | 2.78 | | 菜油 | OI2605 | 9063 | 8991 | -72 | -0.79 | 中国：现货价：菜油： 生意社 | 10034 | 9976 | -58 | -0.58 | | 豆油 | Y2605 | 8016 | 8094 | 78 | 0.97 | 中国 ...

中盛期货 饲料养殖周度报告 中盛期货 20250123 葛妍 从业资格证号：F3052060 投资咨询证号：Z0017892 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要饲料养殖期现货价格走势 | 品 种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 周涨跌幅 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2026/1/22 | 2026/1/15 | | 周变动 | | | 现货指标 | 2026/1/22 | 2026/1/15 | 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | （%) | | | | | | | （%) | | 豆 粕 | M2605 | 2768 | 2740 | 28 . | 00 | 1 . | 02 | 豆粕 ： 43%蛋 白 汇总 ： 价格 山 ： | 3100 | 3100 | 0 . | 00 | 0 00 . | | 菜 粕 | RM605 | 2250 | 2283 | -33 . ...

中盛期货 能化板块周度报告 中盛期货 20260123 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 鲍玉虹 从业资格证号：F03149670 4 伊朗局势仍不明朗。周三美国总统特朗普在瑞士达沃斯参加世界经济论坛年会时表示，伊朗方面有意与美国接触，并暗示双方可能恢复外交 沟通。但随后特朗普于空军一号上向记者表示美国有一支舰队'正驶向伊朗，但他希望不必动用这支舰队，并再次警告德黑兰不要杀害抗议 者或重启核计划。此外，他表示，美国政府将对所有与伊朗进行贸易往来的国家加征25%的关税，这项措施很快就会生效。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 聚酯板块数据周报 中盛期货 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 据央视新闻报道，当地时间21日，美国总统特朗普在世界经济论坛上明确表示，不会武力夺取格陵兰岛，他在与北约秘书长会面后还表示， 暂时不会按原定计划向反对美国得到格陵兰岛的欧洲8国加征关税。消息传出后，欧美贸易战升级的可能性有所降低，降低了全球经济下行 压力，大宗商品市场普遍受到提振。 北极冷空气蔓延至北半球大部分地区，周三美国天然气期货价格一度上涨超29%，近两个交易日暴涨59%。天然气价格的剧烈波动带 ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 黑色系周度报告 中盛期货 20260123 黑色系一周行情回顾 品种 合约 期货主力合约收盘价格 现货价格 基差（未折算） 2026/1/16 2026/1/23 变动 涨跌幅（%） 螺纹钢 RB2605 3163 3142 -21 -1 3270 128 热卷 HC2605 3315 3305 -10 -0 3290 -15 铁矿石 I2605 812 795 -17 -2 817 22 焦炭 J2605 1717 1722 5 0 1570 -152 焦煤 JM2605 1171 1157 -14 -1 1450 293 玻璃 FG605 1103 1064 -39 -4 1180 116 纯碱 SA605 1192 1198 6 1 1234 36 注： 1、基差=现货-期货，本表暂未将现货价格与期货合约基准交割品进行折算。基差数据仅供参考，不作套利依据。 报告仅供参考 不作入市依据 中盛期货 石磊 从业资格证号：F0270570 投资咨询证号：Z0011147 时卓然 研究助理 从业资格证号：F03142612 螺纹钢高炉利润 1月22日，螺纹钢高炉利润报于65元/吨 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The recent sharp decline in the lithium carbonate market is a rapid correction of the previous irrational rise, and the short - term sharp rise driven by policy expectations and capital sentiment has ended. In the short term, the price may need time to find a new balance, and attention should be paid to the spot price and social inventory. In the long term, focus on the actual demand fulfillment [34][35]. - The sharp rise in the Shanghai tin market is due to its fragile and concentrated global supply chain. In the short term, there is a risk of a high - level decline, and in the long term, attention should be paid to downstream demand and policy guidance [36][37][38]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures price of the CU2603 contract rose from 92,780 to 100,770, a weekly increase of 8.61%. The spot price increased from 100,590 to 101,780, a weekly increase of 1.18% [4]. - Aluminum: The futures price of the AL2603 contract decreased from 24,385 to 23,925, a weekly decrease of 1.89%. The spot price decreased from 24,020 to 24,010, a weekly decrease of 0.04% [4]. - Zinc: The futures price of the ZN2603 contract rose from 24,015 to 24,750, a weekly increase of 3.06%. The spot price increased from 24,040 to 24,840, a weekly increase of 3.33% [4]. - Lead: The futures price of the PB2603 contract rose from 17,395 to 17,475, a weekly increase of 0.46%. The spot price increased from 17,175 to 17,300, a weekly increase of 0.73% [4]. - Nickel: The futures price of the NI2603 contract rose from 139,220 to 141,590, a weekly increase of 1.70%. The spot price increased from 141,900 to 149,350, a weekly increase of 5.25% [4]. - Alumina: The futures price of the AO2605 contract decreased from 2,843 to 2,751, a weekly decrease of 3.24%. The spot price decreased from 2,710 to 2,690, a weekly decrease of 0.74% [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of the SI2605 contract decreased from 8,715 to 8,605, a weekly decrease of 1.26%. The spot price remained unchanged at 9,550 [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of the LC2605 contract rose from 143,420 to 146,200, a weekly increase of 1.94%. The spot price increased from 139,100 to 156,250, a weekly increase of 12.33% [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures price of the PS2605 contract rose from 53,150 to 57,190, a weekly increase of 7.60%. The spot price increased from 52,300 to 52,400, a weekly increase of 0.19% [4]. 2. Copper Inventory - LME copper inventory increased from 141,000 tons to 141,100 tons, a weekly increase of 0.07%. - COMEX copper inventory increased from 515,000 tons to 538,700 tons, a weekly increase of 4.60%. - SHEF copper inventory increased from 180,500 tons to 213,500 tons, a weekly increase of 18.28% [21]. 3. Copper Concentrate Processing Fee - As of January 16, 2026, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 46.00 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged weekly and at a historical low. The spot RC was - 4.6 cents/pound, and the tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists [24]. 4. Lithium Spodumene Concentrate Index - As of January 16, 2026, the latest quote was 1,980 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 100 US dollars/ton [27]. 5. Tin Ore Import Data - In November 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates were 15,099.34 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.40% and a month - on - month increase of 29.81%. Imports from Myanmar were 7,190.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 203.77% and a year - on - year increase of 133.38%. Imports from Congo (Kinshasa) were 3,225.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.46% [30]. 6. Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In December 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2%. In 2025, cumulative automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% [32]. - In December 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 8.6% and 6.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and 7.2%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 52.3% of total vehicle sales [32]. - From January to November, the housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. Residential construction area decreased by 10.0%. New housing starts decreased by 20.5%, and residential new starts decreased by 19.9%. Housing completion area decreased by 18.0%, and residential completion area decreased by 20.1% [33]. - As of the end of November, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Solar power generation installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%. Wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment from January to November were 2,858 hours, 289 hours lower than the same period last year [33]. 7. Strategy Recommendation Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: After the sharp decline, the price may need time to find a new balance, and attention should be paid to the spot price and social inventory [34][35]. - Long - term: Focus on the actual demand fulfillment [35]. Tin - Short - term: Be vigilant against the risk of a high - level decline [37]. - Long - term: Pay attention to the actual downstream demand and new policy guidance [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints Polyester Sector - In the short - term, the supply - demand outlook for the polyester sector has worsened. PX and PTA should be treated with an adjustment mindset, and attention should be paid to the risk of crude oil price fluctuations due to unstable geopolitical situations. The sector lacks fundamental support and will follow the general trend of commodities, fluctuating in a low - level range. - In the long - term, the polyester sector will show a differentiated trend. With supply expected to remain relatively tight, the operating centers of PX and PTA will tend to move up. Due to increasing supply pressure, ethylene glycol will perform relatively weakly. [30] Methanol - In the short - term, affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran, the price fluctuations of methanol have increased, maintaining a wide - range oscillation pattern. Methanol is in a deep game between strong expectations and weak reality, with limited upward space and potential for a slight adjustment. - In the long - term, the import volume of methanol is expected to decrease in February, but demand recovery is weak. Methanol will likely continue to oscillate widely until there is obvious recovery momentum in demand. [58] Plastic - In the short - term, the supply - demand situation of plastic has marginally improved this week, and the price has continued to rebound due to strong macro - sentiment. However, as geopolitical concerns ease, the cost - side support weakens, and plastic may return to fundamental operation, with a possible weak and oscillatory trend. - In the long - term, the supply pressure of plastic is unlikely to decrease due to new capacity releases, and overall demand is in the off - season. Plastic is expected to continue its weak trend. [59] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Crude Oil Important Information - Iran's short - term possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz has significantly decreased, and the risk premium has been quickly squeezed out. The US has imposed sanctions on multiple Iranian individuals, entities, and foreign companies associated with Iran. The US has completed the first - batch sale of Venezuelan crude oil as part of a $2 billion deal, and plans to continue selling Venezuelan crude oil indefinitely. [3] - The EIA has slightly revised up its future oil - price forecast, expecting the average price of WTI crude oil in 2026 to reach $52.21 per barrel, and maintaining the 2027 forecast at $50.36. US crude - oil production is expected to decline from a peak of 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.59 million barrels per day in 2026 and 13.25 million barrels per day in 2027. The rebound in Venezuelan crude - oil production may exacerbate market oversupply. [4] - As of the week ending January 9, 2026, US commercial crude - oil inventories increased by 3.39 million barrels to 422.447 million barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 95.3%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous week, while gasoline inventories surged by 8.977 million barrels to 251.013 million barrels. [4] Polyester Sector Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures prices: WTI crude oil continuous increased by 0.03%, PX603 decreased by 0.53%, TA605 decreased by 0.75%, EG605 decreased by 0.75%, PF602 decreased by 1.21%, and PR603 decreased by 0.03%. - Spot prices: Naphtha increased by 2.87%, PX CFR: Taiwan decreased by 0.68%, PTA spot benchmark price decreased by 0.49%, ethylene glycol East China mainstream price decreased by 0.57%, polyester staple fiber East China mainstream price decreased by 0.84%, and polyester bottle - chip East China mainstream price increased by 0.50%. - Basis: PX basis decreased by 10.64 yuan/ton, PTA basis increased by 13 yuan/ton, ethylene glycol basis increased by 8 yuan/ton, short - fiber basis increased by 23 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip basis increased by 32 yuan/ton. - Polyester filament prices: POY150D/48F increased by 2.29%, FDY150D/96F increased by 1.47%, and DTY150D/48F increased by 1.29%. [6] Supply and Demand Analysis of Polyester Sector PX - Last week, the restart of Fujia Dahua's 1 - million - ton PX plant increased supply. As of January 15, the domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 91.95%, up 2.83 percentage points, and the PX output was 760,600 tons, up 1.46%. - South Korea's GSCX Line 3's 550,000 - ton PX plant has restarted, and Asia's PX load has slightly rebounded. As of January 15, Asia's weekly average PX capacity utilization rate was 79.84%, up 0.66%. - There are no planned plant changes next week, and domestic PX supply is expected to remain stable. [12] PTA - During the week, Yisheng New Materials shut down for maintenance, and Xin Fengming restarted. As of January 15, the domestic PTA weekly capacity utilization rate was 77.22%, down 0.19 percentage points, and the weekly output was 1.4504 million tons, down 1,800 tons. - This week, the pace of PTA social inventory reduction has slowed. As of January 15, PTA in - plant inventory days were 3.62 days (+0.02 days), polyester factory PTA inventory was 7.5 days (+0 days), and PTA social inventory was about 2.8674 million tons (-16,800 tons). - There are maintenance plans for plants in South China next week, and domestic supply is expected to decline slightly. [15][16] Ethylene Glycol - This week, Yongcheng Yongjin restarted, and some plants increased their loads, while Sinopec Sichuan Petrochemical had a short - term shutdown, and some plants decreased their loads. As of January 15, the domestic weekly average ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 62.69% (-0.37 percentage points), with the integrated plant capacity utilization rate at 62.51% (-1.14 percentage points) and the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate at 62.98% (+0.89 percentage points); the weekly output was 395,600 tons (-2,300 tons). Sinopec Sichuan Petrochemical will undergo maintenance next week, and domestic supply will decrease. - This week, port inventories increased. As of January 15, the total inventory at East China ports was 728,000 tons, down 9,000 tons from Monday and up 38,000 tons from last Thursday. Although the arrival of imported goods will decrease next week, considering the decline in shipments, port inventories are expected to increase slightly. [17] Polyester End - The weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester end decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 86.7%. [18] Polyester Inventory - This week, the inventory of short - fiber and long - fiber polyester decreased slightly. [22] Terminal - As of January 15, the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 54.94% (-2.95 percentage points), the order days of Chinese weaving sample enterprises were 7.73 days (-0.95 days), and the坯布 inventory days were 28.27 days (+0.7 days). [27] Methanol and Polyolefin Spot and Futures Price Trends - Futures: MA2605 decreased by 1.50%, MA basis increased by 54.84%, L2605 increased by 0.31%, and L basis increased by 158.51%. - Methanol prices: Methanol (Taicang) increased by 0.40%, and methanol CFR increased by 0.65%. - Plastic prices: LLDPE increased by 2.58%, HDPE increased by 2.88%, and LDPE increased by 2.22%. [33] Supply and Demand Analysis of Methanol Supply Side - As of January 15, the domestic methanol operating rate was 91.11%, down 0.31 percentage points, and the output was 2.0353 million tons, down 6,990 tons (0.34%) from the previous period. - This week, Xinxiang Zhongxin's plant was under maintenance, with a loss of 300,000 tons/year of production capacity, and Inner Mongolia Jiuding's plant resumed operation, with a recovery of 100,000 tons/year of production capacity. - There are still some maintenance plans next week, and the operating rate is expected to continue to decline slightly. [40] Demand Side - As of January 15, the MTO operating rate decreased by 2.29 percentage points to 85.77%. Ningbo Fude continued to be shut down, and Zhejiang Xingxing shut down on January 12 due to economic pressure. Sierbang has a maintenance plan in February, and the support for coastal olefins is weakening. Other traditional downstream sectors are in the off - season, and although there is a slight increase in plant restarts, there is no obvious positive news. Olefins may continue to weaken in the next period. [43] Inventory - As of January 14, port inventories were 1.4353 million tons, down 101,900 tons (6.63%) from the previous period, and inland inventories were 450,900 tons, up 3,270 tons (0.73%). - The overall unloading volume this period was not large, and port inventories decreased. Although coastal olefins in Zhejiang weakened due to plant shutdowns, inventories also decreased significantly due to less unloading. However, this inventory reduction was mainly driven by unloading volume, and there was no obvious positive news on the demand side. There is still a large risk of inventory accumulation in the next period, and the turning point for effective inventory reduction has not yet arrived. Inland inventories are higher than in previous years due to high operating pressure and seasonal weakening of demand, and there is still pressure to reduce inventories. [46] Supply and Demand Analysis of Plastic Supply Side - As of January 15, the domestic plastic operating rate was 81.6%, down 2.07 percentage points, and the output was 669,800 tons, down 17,000 tons (2.47%) from the previous period. - This week, plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical were under maintenance, with a total loss of about 480,000 tons/year of production capacity, and plants such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical resumed operation, with a total recovery of about 280,000 tons/year of production capacity. - Next week, there are many plants resuming operation, with a total recovery of about 1.5 million tons/year of production capacity, and the operating rate is expected to increase. [49] Demand Side - As of January 15, the downstream plastic operating rate was 40.93%, down 0.28 percentage points. The agricultural film sector continued to weaken seasonally, with the operating rate continuing to decline (-0.91%), and the packaging film sector was slightly boosted by post - holiday replenishment demand, but order follow - up was weakening. [54] Inventory - As of January 13, social inventories were 484,300 tons, down 500 tons (0.1%) from the previous period, and two - oil enterprise inventories were 302,000 tons, down 23,000 tons (7.08%). - This period, the macro - news was positive, market sentiment was strong, and prices continued to rise. However, after the downstream had completed phased inventory replenishment, the trading atmosphere was stalemate. Two - oil enterprises successfully reduced inventories, but overall inventories fluctuated little. [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints For Steel and Iron Ore - In the medium - to - long - term, the fundamentals of steel have slightly improved, but due to cold weather, the demand in the off - season will deepen. The market is hesitant, and steel mills' profitability is low, so there is still upward pressure. For iron ore, overseas shipments are falling, but previous shipments are arriving at ports, resulting in a loose supply situation, high port inventories, and a slight decline in daily hot metal production. It is recommended to operate with caution [69]. - In the short - term, rebar and iron ore will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment situation [70]. For Glass and Soda Ash - In the medium - to - long - term, the number of glass production lines remains stable, weekly production decreases, supply is at a low level, and inventory pressure is relieved but still high year - on - year. The real - estate off - season continues, and cost support weakens, so the glass fundamentals are under pressure. For soda ash, industry maintenance is mostly over, capacity utilization has significantly increased, overall inventory is high, downstream glass production has decreased, and weak terminal demand persists [73]. - In the short - term, glass and soda ash will maintain a weak operation, waiting for demand guidance [74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black - series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | 2026/1/9 Closing Price | 2026/1/16 Closing Price | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2605 | 3144 | 3163 | 19 | 1 | 3300 | 137 | | Hot - rolled coil | HC2605 | 3294 | 3315 | 21 | 1 | 3310 | - 5 | | Iron ore | I2605 | 815 | 812 | - 3 | - 0 | 832 | 20 | | Coke | J2605 | 1748 | 1717 | - 31 | - 2 | 1570 | - 147 | | Coking coal | JM2605 | 1196 | 1171 | - 25 | - 2 | 1370 | 199 | | Glass | FG605 | 1144 | 1103 | - 41 | - 4 | 1170 | 67 | | Soda ash | SA605 | 1228 | 1192 | - 36 | - 3 | 1234 | 42 | [3] Rebar Supply Side - On January 16, the blast - furnace operating rate was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons; the rebar output was 1.903 million tons, a decrease of 7400 tons [13]. Demand Side - In the week of January 16, the apparent consumption of rebar was 1.9034 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,800 tons. As of January 15, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 86,175 tons [19]. Inventory - In the week of January 16, the social inventory of rebar was 2.9541 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 52,300 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.4266 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 52,700 tons [24]. Iron Ore Supply Side - In the week of January 9, the global iron - ore shipment volume was 3.1809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3.015 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 190,300 tons [29]. Inventory - In the week of January 16, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 17.2887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 244,260 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 9.26222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 272,630 tons [34]. Demand Side - In the week of January 16, the daily average port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 335,020 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1940 tons. As of January 15, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 98,120 tons [39]. Float Glass Supply Side - In the week of January 16, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 212, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1,052,315 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6930 tons. As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate was 75.34%, and the operating rate was 71.38% [44]. Inventory - In the week of January 16, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 53.013 million weight - boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million weight - boxes; the available days of in - plant inventory were 23 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 days [49]. Demand Side - In the week of January 16, the number of days of deep - processing orders from downstream glass manufacturers was 9.3 days [53]. Soda Ash Supply Side - In the week of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 86.82%, an increase of 2.43 percentage points compared with last week; the output was 775,300 tons, an increase of 21,700 tons compared with last week [56]. In - plant Inventory - As of January 16, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.575 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2300 tons [61]. Production and Sales Rate - As of January 16, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 99.7%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points [65].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the policy side releases positive signals again, but corporate earnings have not significantly improved, so the stock index may need adjustment after continuous rise; the gold market is in high - level oscillation due to the game around the Fed's monetary policy independence and the Iran situation, waiting for a direction [31][32] - In the medium to long term, the valuation of the stock index will be dragged down by the decline in corporate earnings growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the recovery of risk appetite, so the stock index will maintain a wide - range oscillation; the US tax - cut policy will gradually stimulate the economy, the Fed's room for further interest rate cuts will narrow, and gold may face a deep adjustment [32] Summary by Relevant Catalog Macroeconomic Data - In December 2025, China's CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year (previous value 0.7%), PPI fell 1.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points. Imports increased 5.7% and exports increased 6.6% year - on - year, with the growth rates accelerating by 3.8 and 0.7 percentage points respectively. Industrial deflation pressure has been relieved [6] - In the US, in December 2025, the number of new non - farm payrolls was 50,000, the unemployment rate dropped from 4.6% to 4.4%, and CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year with the same increase as last month, indicating a slow recovery in the labor market but still high inflation [19] Stock Index Fundamental Data - In late December 2025, China's broad money supply M2 increased 8.5% year - on - year (previous value 8%), M1 increased 3.8% year - on - year (previous value 4.9%) with the growth rate slowing for three consecutive months, and the gap between M1 and M2 widened [14] - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose to 267.3143 billion yuan, a record high. The central bank conducted 951.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 900 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net injection of 1712.8 billion yuan [16] Gold Fundamental Data - The growth of Shanghai gold futures warehouse receipts and inventory has slowed down, and the COMEX gold inventory in New York has decreased slightly, indicating a relief of delivery pressure [29] Strategy Recommendation - The effects of the "anti - involution" and elimination of backward production capacity policies are gradually emerging. Commodity prices have risen, industrial deflation pressure has been relieved, and the profit of the upstream raw material processing industry is expected to improve [31] - Although corporate earnings have not significantly improved, the central bank's measures may boost risk appetite. After the continuous rise of the stock index, attention should be paid to the callback risk [31] - The US labor market is slowly recovering, but inflation risk remains. The Fed officials think there is no need for further interest rate cuts in the short term. The gold market is in high - level oscillation and may face a directional choice [31] Next Week's Focus - Important data such as China's December fixed - asset investment, industrial added value, and consumer retail [33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Long - term**: For rebar, the cost side is frequently disturbed, the supply has been increasing, the apparent demand has been declining, and the weak pattern is hard to change; for iron ore, the supply is loose, the downstream hot metal production has bottomed out, and it will mainly fluctuate. For glass, the number of production lines and weekly output are decreasing, and the weak pattern is hard to change; for soda ash, the industry profit is declining, the market start - up is increasing, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly [65][69]. - **Short - term**: Rebar and iron ore will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term with room for correction; glass and soda ash will maintain a weak pattern and continue to fluctuate at a low level [66][70]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black - series Weekly Market Review - **Price Changes**: From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, the closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, and soda ash futures main contracts all increased, with increases of 1%, 1%, 3%, 3%, 7%, 5%, and 2% respectively [3]. - **Rebar**: On January 8, the rebar blast furnace profit was 68 yuan/ton [7]. Rebar - **Supply Side**: As of January 9, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate was 79.31%, a 0.37 - percentage - point increase; the daily average hot metal output was 2.295 million tons, a 2070 - ton increase; the rebar output was 191,040 tons, a 2820 - ton increase [12]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 9, the apparent consumption of rebar was 174,960 tons, a 25,480 - ton decrease; as of January 8, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 83,801 tons [17]. - **Inventory**: In the week of January 9, the social inventory of rebar was 290,180 tons, a 7520 - ton decrease; the in - factory inventory was 147,930 tons, an 8560 - ton increase [22]. Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 2, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2137 million tons, a 463,400 - ton decrease; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.8247 million tons, a 96,900 - ton increase [27]. - **Inventory**: In the week of January 9, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 17.04444 million tons, a 322,650 - ton increase; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.98959 million tons, a 43,050 - ton increase [32]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 9, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 336,960 tons, a 3250 - ton decrease; as of January 8, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 103,000 tons [37]. Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 9, the number of float glass production lines in operation was 212, a decrease of 2; the weekly output was 1,059,245 tons, a decrease of 14,130 tons; as of January 8, the capacity utilization rate was 75%, and the operating rate was 71.38% [42]. - **Inventory**: In the week of January 9, the in - factory inventory of float glass was 55.518 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 1.348 million weight - boxes; the available days of in - factory inventory were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days [45]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of January 4, the number of days of deep - processing orders from glass downstream manufacturers was 8.6 days [49]. Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of January 9, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.39%, a 4.43 - percentage - point increase; the output was 75,360 tons, a 5650 - ton increase [52]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 157,270 tons, a 16,440 - ton increase [57]. - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of January 9, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a 26.15 - percentage - point decrease [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the bearish expectations of the rapeseed meal sector suppress the market, while soybean meal awaits guidance from the USDA report. There may be a turnaround in China - Canada trade, and the bearish sentiment for rapeseed meal continues. - In the medium - to - long - term, the overall upside potential is limited under the global supply - abundant fundamental situation [34][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - The closing price of the soybean meal futures main contract (M2605) on January 8, 2026, was 2782, up 33 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.20%. The spot price was 3110, up 50 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 1.63%. - The closing price of the rapeseed meal futures main contract (RM605) on January 8, 2026, was 2358, down 7 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly decrease of 0.30%. The spot price was 2540, up 10 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 0.40%. - The closing price of the corn futures main contract (C2603) on January 8, 2026, was 2266, up 40 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.80%. The spot price was 2310, down 10 from the previous week, with a weekly decrease of 0.43%. - The closing price of the live hog futures main contract (LH2603) on January 8, 2026, was 11720, down 75 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly decrease of 0.64%. The spot price was 12.85, down 0.33 from the previous week, with a weekly decrease of 2.50%. - The closing price of the egg futures main contract (JD2603) on January 8, 2026, was 3009, up 47 from December 31, 2025, with a weekly increase of 1.59%. The spot price was 3.23, up 0.23 from the previous week, with a weekly increase of 7.67% [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cost Side - Weather: Recent rainfall in central Brazil is beneficial for soybean pod - setting, and the precipitation coverage will improve next week. - US Soybeans: As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 877,900 tons, a 26% decrease from the previous week and a 42% decrease from the four - week average. The export sales volume so far this season is 29% lower than the same period in 2025, while the USDA predicts an annual decline of 13%. The net sales volume of US soybeans to China (mainland only) in the 2025/26 season in that week was 470,000 tons, higher than 396,000 tons a week ago. The total sales volume of US soybeans to China so far in the 2025/26 season is 6.893 million tons, a 63.8% decrease from 19.036 million tons in the same period in 2025, and a 66.0% decrease a week ago. - Brazil: Brazilian soybean traders expect to export 77 million tons of soybeans to China in 2026, a decrease of 1 million tons from 2025. US soybean sales to China will weaken the demand for Brazilian soybeans to some extent. - Argentina: As of January 8, 2026, the soybean planting rate in the 2025/26 season in Argentina was 92%, up from 86% last week and compared with 96% in the same period in 2025 [10]. 3.2.2 Supply - Import: In November, China did not import soybeans from the US for the third consecutive month and turned to South America for supply. The total soybean import volume in November was 8.11 million tons, of which 5.85 million tons were from Brazil, a 48.5% year - on - year increase, accounting for 72% of the total import volume in that month; the export volume to China from another source soared to 1.78 million tons, a more than six - fold year - on - year increase, accounting for nearly 22% [10]. 3.2.3 Demand - Pressing: In December 2025, the soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills remained high, about 9.05 million tons for the whole month, and soybean meal was continuously accumulating inventory. The import volume of soybeans in January decreased, and it is expected that the soybean pressing volume will decrease slightly to about 8 million tons, with a soybean meal output of about 6.4 million tons. - Transaction: On January 8, the spot market prices of soybean meal in China showed mixed trends. The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 351,800 tons [10]. 3.2.4 Inventory - As of the end of the first week of 2026, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 6.876 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons from the previous week; the inventory of domestic soybean meal was 1.135 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons from the previous week, a 3.52% month - on - month decrease; the contract volume was 6.376 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons from the previous week, a 36.09% month - on - month increase [10]. 3.3 Supply Side - Import - As of January 8, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 451.00 US dollars per ton, an increase of 8 US dollars per ton from the previous week. The CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 472.00 US dollars per ton, the same as the previous week [14]. 3.4 Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week ending January 8, the soybean pressing profit was - 6.70 yuan per ton, a recovery of 54.45 yuan per ton from the previous week. - As of the week ending January 2, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9838 million tons, an increase of 201,600 tons from the previous week. - As of January 2, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 50%, a 5 - percentage - point recovery from the previous week [19]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of January 9, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3396 million tons, a recovery of 54,000 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean port inventory is at a very high level in the past 5 years. - As of January 2, the oil mill's soybean meal inventory was 1.0505 million tons, a decrease of 51,500 tons from the previous week. Seasonally, the soybean meal inventory of domestic mainstream oil mills is at a very high level in the past 5 years [21]. 3.6 Demand Side - As of January 2, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 139,900 tons, the same as the previous week. Seasonally, it is at a relatively high level in the past 5 years [25]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Supply Side The report presents data on rapeseed import volume from different countries to China, rapeseed meal production in China on different time scales (annual, monthly, weekly), and the expected arrival volume of rapeseed at domestic pressing plants [29]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory Side The report shows data on rapeseed meal's initial inventory, supply, demand, and consumption in China, as well as the inventory and trading volume of rapeseed meal in different regions [32]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - **Soybean Meal**: Since the easing of China - US relations, China's purchasing progress affects the trend of US soybeans. Due to the lack of a formal trade agreement between China and the US, there are still doubts about the subsequent purchasing rhythm, and the uncertainty suppresses the price of US soybeans. In South America, the good weather in Brazil indicates a bumper harvest, which also puts pressure on US soybeans. In China, as the festival approaches, the rigid demand for soybean meal from feed and aquaculture enterprises increases. Coupled with the reduction of soybean pressing after the New Year's Day holiday, the output of soybean meal decreases, supporting the continuous small - scale upward trend of the spot price of soybean meal. The average spot trading price of soybean meal in oil mills has risen to the highest level in 8 months. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The upcoming visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China may put pressure on the price of rapeseed, causing fluctuations in the domestic rapeseed market sentiment. Currently, domestic pressing enterprises have completely shut down, and the spot supply is in short supply. Traders have a strong willingness to hold prices, and the spot price of rapeseed meal remains stable overall. The crushing progress of imported Australian rapeseed is slow, and the inventory of rapeseed products in coastal oil mills remains low. The unit - protein price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows that rapeseed meal is not cost - effective, and the demand is mediocre. The focus of the rapeseed market is still on the import side, and attention should be paid to news - related disturbances [34].