聚酯板块数据周报 能化板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251024 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 鲍玉虹 从业资讯证号：F03149670 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 据新华社报道，美国财政部长贝森特22日在一份声明中说，美国此次制裁针对俄罗斯国有企业俄罗斯石油公司和私有企业卢克石油公司，声 明未明确提及制裁生效日期。财政部准备"在必要时采取进一步行动"，以支持特朗普为结束俄乌冲突所作努力。此次制裁的两家石油公司 出口体量较大，海运出口量合计约200万桶/日，共占俄罗斯原油出口总量近50%，管道油出口80万桶/日。 2 据央视新闻报道，当地时间23日，欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡拉斯宣布，欧盟正式通过对俄罗斯第19轮制裁。制裁措施包括禁止进口俄 罗斯液化天然气等，还新增了对俄罗斯外交官的旅行限制，并将俄罗斯"影子舰队"中的117艘船只列入名单。 3 俄罗斯外交部发言人扎哈罗娃23日在例行记者会上表示，美欧对俄新制裁不会产生预期效果，俄近年来已对制裁形成免疫力。她还表示，欧 盟针对俄实施的新一轮制裁措施也不会实现预期效果，反而会对欧盟自身造成损害， ...

饲料养殖周度报告 新纪元期货研究20251024 葛妍 从业资格证号：F3052060 投资咨询证号：Z0017892 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要饲料养殖期现货价格走势 | 品 种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 周涨跌幅 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/16 | | 周变动 | | | 现货指标 | 2025/10/23 | 2025/10/16 | 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅 | | | | | | | | （%) | | | | | | | （%) | | 豆 粕 | M2601 | 2938 | 2907 | 31 . | 00 | 1 . | 07 | 豆粕 ： 43%蛋 白 ：汇总 价格 山 ： | 2940 | 2920 | 20 . | 00 | 0 68 . | | 菜 粕 | RM601 | 2339 | 2364 | -25 | ...

投资有风险，入市需谨慎 黑色系周度报告 新纪元期货研究 10/24/2025 石磊 从业资格证号：F0270570 投资咨询证号：Z0011147 时卓然 研究助理 从业资格证号：F03142612 黑色系一周行情回顾 1、基差=现货-期货，本表暂未将现货价格与期货合约基准交割品进行折算。基差数据仅供参考，不作套利依据。 报告仅供参考 不作入市依据 螺纹钢高炉利润 10月23日，螺纹钢高炉利润报于-56元/吨。 报告仅供参考 不作入市依据 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 | 品种 | 合约 | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | 基差（未折算） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/10/17 | 2025/10/24 | 变动 | 涨跌幅（%） | | | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3037.0 | 3046.0 | 9.0 | 0.3 | 3046.0 | 0 | | 热卷 | HC2601 | 3204.0 | 3250.0 | 46.0 | 1.4 | 3290.0 | 40 ...

股指、黄金周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251024 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内外宏观经济数据 今年第三季度GDP同比增长4.8%，较二季度放缓0.4个百分点。1-9月固定资产投资同比 下降0.5%，为2020年9月以来首次转负；工业增加值同比增长6.2%，与上月持平；社会 消费品零售总额同比增长4.5%,较上月放缓0.1个百分点。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 股指、黄金现货价格走势 IF 惠农保价稳产 IC IH 数据来源：同花顺iFind 新纪元期货研究 AU 股指基本面数据 企业盈利 资金面 黄金基本面数据 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 无风险利率：持有成本 通胀水平 美国联邦政府陷入停摆，导致部分经济数据未能按时发布。美联储内部对于未来利率 今年9月新增贷款和社融规模回升，M1与M2剪刀差进一步收窄，反映金融机构不断加大 对企业的信贷支持，A股市场表现活跃，流动性保持充裕。 期货6+" 目标导向，问题出口: 惠农保价稳产 沪深两市融资余额小幅降至24263.77亿元，央行本周共开展86 ...

有色金属周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251024 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 近五年基本金属基差变化情况 国内主要金属现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.10.17 | 2025.10.24 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | 现货指标 | 2025.10.17 | 2025.10.24 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2512 | 84390 | 87720 | 3330 | 3.95% | 平均价:1#铜:上海现货 | 84850 | 86400 | 1550 | 1.83% | | 铝 | AL2512 | 20910 | 21225 | 315 | 1.51% | 平均价:A00铝:上海现货 | 20940 | 21110 | 170 | 0.81% | | 锌 | ZN2512 | 21830 | 22355 | 525 | 2.40% | 平均价:0#锌:上海现货 ...

能化板块周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251017 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 聚酯板块数据周报 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 中新网消息显示，当地时间15日，美国总统特朗普宣称，印度总理莫迪已向他保证，印度将停止向俄罗斯购买石油。印度是全球第三大原油 进口国，其石油需求持续增长，如果印度转向其他来源如中东、美国或非洲来弥补俄罗斯石油的缺口，可能会引发全球贸易流的重新配置。 俄罗斯作为全球主要产油国之一，其出口受限可能会收紧全球原油供应。 据新华社华盛顿10月16日消息，美国总统特朗普16日在社交媒体上发文说，他当天与俄罗斯总统普京进行了长时间通话，主要讨论结束俄乌 冲突及其后的俄美贸易等议题。双方将在匈牙利首都布达佩斯举行面对面会晤。 3 IEA周二表示，全球石油供应增长将较之前预估更为迅速，2026年供应过剩量或将扩大，这是因为OPEC+成员国及其他产油国提高产量，但需 求仍保持萎靡。IEA在月度市场报告称，2025年全球石油供应将增加300万桶/日，高于此前预测的增加270万桶/日;2026年石油供应料进一步 增长240万桶/日。 4 由于美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Medium to long - term: Trade conflicts have intensified, and market sentiment is weak. Most black commodities showed weak performance this week. For rebar, supply decreased while demand increased, but the fundamental improvement was not obvious, and the main contract was under pressure from the 5 - day moving average. Although the daily average hot metal output continued to decline, it remained above 2.4 million tons, providing support to the iron ore demand side, while the supply side tended to be loose, and industrial negative feedback intensified. For glass, the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" fell short of expectations, the weak demand pattern was hard to change, the operating rate increased, and enterprise inventories accumulated, with the main contract dropping significantly on Friday. For soda ash, factory inventories accumulated, downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand, the oversupply situation continued, and the main contract maintained a weak and volatile trend [63][67]. - Short - term: After the holiday, the recovery of the demand side fell short of expectations, the inventory reduction speed was slow, and the overall fundamental improvement was limited. The main contracts of the black series were mainly in a weak and volatile trend. This week, glass and soda ash continued to operate weakly. Attention should be paid to the recovery of the demand side during the peak season and the policy signal orientation of subsequent important meetings [64][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Black Series Weekly Market Review - Rebar (RB2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3103.0 on October 10, 2025, to 3037.0 on October 17, 2025, a decrease of 66.0 or 2.1%. The spot price was 3200.0, and the basis (unconverted) was 163.0 [3]. - Hot - rolled coil (HC2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 3285.0 to 3204.0, a decrease of 81.0 or 2.5%. The spot price was 3270.0, and the basis was 66.0 [3]. - Iron ore (I2601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 795.0 to 771.0, a decrease of 24.0 or 3.0%. The spot price was 788.0, and the basis was 17.0 [3]. - Coke (J2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 1666.5 to 1676.0, an increase of 9.5 or 0.6%. The spot price was 1620.0, and the basis was - 56.0 [3]. - Coking coal (JM2601): The closing price of the futures main contract increased from 1161.0 to 1179.0, an increase of 18.0 or 1.6%. The spot price was 1350.0, and the basis was 171.0 [3]. - Glass (FG601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1207.0 to 1095.0, a decrease of 112.0 or 9.3%. The spot price was 1270.0, and the basis was 175.0 [3]. - Soda ash (SA601): The closing price of the futures main contract decreased from 1240.0 to 1209.0, a decrease of 31.0 or 2.5%. The spot price was 1271.3, and the basis was 62.3 [3]. Rebar - Profit: On October 16, the rebar blast furnace profit was - 60 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply side: As of October 17, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate was 84.27% (unchanged), the daily average hot metal output was 2.4095 million tons (a decrease of 0.59), and the rebar output was 2011600 tons (a decrease of 22400) [12]. - Demand side: In the week of October 17, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.1975 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 737400 tons. As of October 16, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 101819 tons [17]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the social inventory of rebar was 4.5641 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 108900 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.8464 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77000 tons [22]. Iron Ore - Supply side: In the week of October 10, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2075 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71500 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in the country was 3.1441 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 368300 tons [27]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 14.96187 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 320000 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.98273 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63460 tons [30]. - Demand side: In the week of October 17, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 3293200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 122200 tons. As of October 16, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 120700 tons [35]. Float Glass - Supply side: In the week of October 17, the number of operating float glass production lines was 226, a week - on - week increase of 1; the weekly output was 1128925 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 16, the capacity utilization rate was 80.63% (unchanged), and the operating rate was 76.35% (unchanged) [38]. - Inventory: In the week of October 17, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 64.2756 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.4516 million weight boxes compared with October 10. The number of days of available in - plant inventory was 27.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 days [43]. - Demand side: As of September 30, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 11 days [47]. Soda Ash - Supply side: In the week of October 17, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.93%, a decrease of 3.48 percentage points compared with the previous week; the output was 740500 tons, a decrease of 30300 tons compared with the previous week [51]. - Factory inventory: As of October 17, the factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7005 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40700 tons [56]. - Production and sales rate: As of October 17, the production and sales rate of soda ash was 94.5%, a week - on - week increase of 2.07 percentage points [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, with sufficient arrival of imported soybeans and abundant inventories of soybeans and soybean meal, the weak pattern of soybean meal is hard to change, and attention should be paid to the evolution of the trade side. As aquaculture enters the off - season, downstream purchasing and sales are weak, and it will run weakly in the short - term [31]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is loose, and the continuous upward momentum of the soybean series is limited [32]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Feed and Aquaculture Futures and Spot Price Trends - Futures: The closing price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract on October 16, 2025, was 2907 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 1.09%. The RM601 rapeseed meal futures contract was 2364 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.92%. The C2601 corn futures contract was 2111 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26%. The LH2601 live pig futures contract was 11905 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.67%. The JD2511 egg futures contract was 2818 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.85% [4]. - Spot: The spot price of 43% protein soybean meal in Shandong on October 16, 2025, was 2920 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decrease of 0.34%. The rapeseed meal price in China was 2500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.96%. The price of second - class national standard corn with 14.5% moisture in Bayuquan Port was 2150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.38%. The average出栏 price of commercial pigs in Henan was 11.21 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.09%. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas in China was 2.93 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.35% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Information - Cost - side: In the US Midwest, most areas had good weather this week, which was conducive to harvesting. US soybean crushing data was strong. In September, the US soybean crushing volume reached 197.863 million bushels, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. Brazil planned to export 2.153936 million tons of soybeans, 672,337 tons of soybean meal, and 1.8898 million tons of corn in the week of October 12 - 18. Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 51.1 million tons, and the 2025/26 soybean planting area was expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [8]. - Supply - side: In September 2025, China's soybean imports were 12.869 million tons, a 4.8% month - on - month increase and a 13.2% year - on - year increase [8]. - Demand - side: The domestic soybean crushing volume remained at a high level overall and entered a seasonal downward phase in October. As of the week of October 10, the domestic major oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 1.29 million tons [8]. - Inventory: In the 41st week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, and the unexecuted contracts increased [8]. 3.3 Supply - side - Import - As of October 16, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 481.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The CNF price of imported soybeans from the US West was 444.00 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton from the previous week [16]. 3.4 Supply - side - Pressing - As of the week of October 16, the soybean crushing profit was - 123.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.20 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of October 10, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.2365 million tons, a decrease of 1.0255 million tons from the previous week. As of October 10, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 57%, a recovery of 36 percentage points from the previous week [22]. 3.5 Inventory - side - As of October 17, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.1882 million tons, an increase of 0.6085 million tons from the previous week, and it was at a medium level in the past five years. As of October 10, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0467 million tons, a decrease of 0.1061 million tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level in the past five years [24]. 3.6 Demand - side - As of September 5, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 40,500 tons, a decrease of 130,600 tons from the previous week, and it was at a low level in the past five years [29]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation - The strong US soybean crushing data overshadowed export concerns, and CBOT soybeans rebounded from the low level. Under the pressure of supply, domestic double - meal continued to decline. The US government's continuous shutdown led to a lack of export sales and supply - demand data, and the market sentiment remained cautious. After the festival, domestic oil mills resumed operation quickly, but the downstream replenishment enthusiasm was poor, resulting in slow inventory reduction of soybean meal. The market is closely watching whether the policy of imposing special port fees on US ships will affect soybean ships. The rapeseed meal market shows a pattern of both supply and demand being weak. The low operating rate of oil mills leads to a tight overall supply of rapeseed meal in the spot market. As the temperature gradually drops, aquaculture enters the off - season, and the overall market trading is light, with mainly rigid demand procurement [31].

国内三大油脂期现货价格走势 三大油脂周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20251017 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.10.10 | 2025.10.17 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅% | 现货指标 | 2025.10.10 | 2025.10.17 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅% | | 棕榈油 | P2601 | 9438 | 9308 | -130 | -1.38 | 中国：现货价：棕榈油： 生意社 | 9504 | 9382 | -122 | -1.28 | | 菜油 | OI2601 | 10061 | 9861 | -200 | -1.99 | 中国：现货价：菜油： 生意社 | 10268 | 10153 | -115 | -1.12 | | 豆油 | Y2601 | 8302 | 8256 | -46 | -0.55 | 中国：现货价：豆油： 生意社 | 8492 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, alumina is expected to oscillate weakly, while Shanghai aluminum will oscillate at a high level. In the medium - to - long - term, with the resilience of terminal demand and positive macro - sentiment, they are expected to oscillate upward. For polysilicon, it will oscillate in a high - level range in the short - term due to policy influence. For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to policy - expectation guidance as production costs may rise. In the medium - to - long - term, the industry's over - supply situation remains, and the focus is on policy implementation and actual demand [48][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metal Price Movements - Most base metals' futures and spot prices declined this week, except for lithium carbonate (no change), polysilicon (futures up 6.89%, spot up 0.48%), and polycrystalline silicon (up 3.95% in futures). For example, copper futures fell 1.77%, and its spot price dropped 2.15%. Aluminum futures declined 0.40%, and its spot price decreased 0.14% [2]. Metal Inventory Changes - As of October 17, SHFE copper inventory was 11.02 million tons, up 0.05 million tons (+0.46%) from last week; LME copper inventory was 13.72 million tons, down 0.22 million tons (-1.58%). As of October 16, COMEX copper inventory was 34.47 million tons, up 0.52 million tons (+1.53%). For zinc, as of October 17, LME zinc inventory was 3.803 million tons, up 0.01 million tons (+0.21%), and SHFE zinc inventory was 6.73 million tons, up 0.67 million tons (+11.06%) [13][16][25]. Metal Supply - side Situations - Copper concentrate processing fees remained at a historical low, with the spot TC at - 40.70 dollars/ton as of October 16, and the tight supply expectation persisted. The lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index rose 7 dollars/ton to 846 dollars/ton as of October 17. Zinc concentrate processing fees continued to rise. The national alumina weekly operating rate decreased slightly, and the operating capacity dropped by 94 million tons to 9108 million tons, but the supply surplus pressure remained [19][22][47]. Metal Demand - side Situations - In August, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales also had significant year - on - year growth, accounting for 48.8% of total vehicle sales. From January to August, real estate development showed declines in various indicators such as construction area, new - start area, and completion area. As of the end of August, the national cumulative power - generation installed capacity increased by 18.0% year - on - year, with solar and wind power having high growth rates [41][43][45]. Strategy Recommendations - For alumina, it will oscillate weakly in the short - term and may strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. For electrolytic aluminum, it will oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and may also strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. For polysilicon, it will oscillate in a high - level range in the short - term, and the industry's over - supply situation needs to be addressed in the medium - to - long - term. For industrial silicon, production costs may rise, and policy - expectation guidance should be followed [47][48][50].