2025年8月宏观经济月报：维稳当下，谋篇布局-20250801

Group 1: Overseas Economic and Policy Environment - The US economy showed resilience in Q2 2025, with GDP growth increasing by 3.0%, up 3.5 percentage points from Q1, primarily due to inventory investment and a reversal of import drag[12] - The unemployment rate in the US fell unexpectedly, with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added in June, indicating a strong labor market despite some signs of weakness[12] - The European Central Bank maintained its policy rate in July, with most officials agreeing on the current monetary policy's support for the economy, but potential rate cuts remain if tariffs significantly impact the economy[23] Group 2: Domestic Economic Conditions - China's fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% year-on-year in June, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous value, with manufacturing investment declining by 2.7 percentage points to 5.1%[30] - Social retail sales growth fell to 4.8% year-on-year in June, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points, influenced by the fading effects of consumption policies and high base effects[33] - The CPI in June rebounded to a year-on-year growth of 0.1%, ending three months of negative growth, while PPI continued to decline, indicating ongoing price pressures in the industrial sector[38] Group 3: Domestic Policy Environment - The Central Political Bureau emphasized stability, continuity, and flexibility in future policies, with a focus on structural monetary policies to support small and medium enterprises and boost consumption[51] - Fiscal policy is expected to be implemented with precision, with a projected fiscal space of over 6 trillion yuan for the second half of the year, supporting key areas like infrastructure[56] - The risk of geopolitical tensions and unexpected economic changes poses significant challenges to domestic economic stability and policy effectiveness[57]