股指黄金周度报告-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to the repeated digestion of previous policy benefits and the decline of the official manufacturing PMI in July, the market expectation gradually returns to reality, and the stock index needs short - term adjustment. One should patiently wait for low - buying opportunities. The Fed's interest rate decision sent a hawkish signal, global trade tensions eased, and the risk - aversion sentiment continued to cool down. After the end of the gold rebound, it may continue to adjust, maintaining a band - short thinking [39]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the valuation of the stock index is mainly dragged down by the decline of corporate profit growth at the molecular end, while the support at the denominator end mainly comes from the rise of risk preference. The stock index maintains a wide - range shock thinking in the medium term. The US may reach trade agreements with more countries, the risk - aversion sentiment significantly drops, the Fed's interest rate decision is hawkish, and there is a risk of deep adjustment in gold [40]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Fundamental Data - In July, the official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and was in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Industrial production slowed down, demand contracted again, external demand downward pressure increased, and the prosperity of small enterprises weakened further, indicating that the foundation for China's economic recovery is not solid, and insufficient demand remains the main contradiction [3]. - From January to June, the decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size widened, and the year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventory continued to decline. There were differentiations in the profit structure among different industries, indicating that downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure, the inflection point of upward profit growth has not arrived, and they are still in the stage of active inventory reduction [16]. - The growth of margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slowed down. The central bank conducted 1.6632 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations this week, achieving a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan [18]. Gold Fundamental Data - The US real GDP in the second quarter increased by 3% quarter - on - quarter, the highest growth rate since 2024. The core PCE price index in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, rising for two consecutive months. The Fed's interest rate decision remained unchanged, and the monetary policy statement was hawkish. The 10 - year US Treasury yield remained high [22]. - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures soared, the New York futures inventory continued to decline, and the market's bullish sentiment cooled down [38].