Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Coking Coal and Coke Monthly Report [2] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Wang Nan [2] - Company: AVIC Futures [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Report Core Viewpoints - In July, the double - coking futures continued the upward trend from June, but the price volatility in the last two weeks increased significantly. Policy and market factors affected supply and demand expectations, and price fluctuations were large. In August, due to factors such as position - shifting and policy expectations, the prices quickly declined [7]. - Currently, the coking coal inventory pressure has gradually eased, and the price has upward elasticity, but short - term sentiment decline may correct the over - increase. The coking coal supply increment and price support after the sentiment decline should be focused on [33]. - With the rapid increase in coking enterprise production costs, the frequency of price increases has accelerated. The fifth price increase has not been implemented due to market sentiment cooling. The short - term market is expected to oscillate at a high level to digest the previous increase, and attention should be paid to the impact of the parade on supply contraction [36]. Group 4: Summary by Report Sections 1. Market Review - In July, the coking coal 09 contract rose 26.73%, and the coke 09 contract rose 14.03%. Policy factors such as the "anti - involution" policy and the "Yaxia" project affected supply and demand expectations, leading to price increases. The exchange's position - limit and the Politburo meeting cooled the market sentiment, and in August, the price quickly declined due to position - shifting [7]. 2. Data Analysis - Supply of Coking Coal: As of the week of August 1, the operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants was 61.51%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%, and the daily output of clean coal was 52.135 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.05 tons. The operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.31%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.08%, and the daily output of clean coal was 77.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.54 tons. The supply of coking coal has recovered, but the resumption of production is limited. The customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port has decreased compared with the same period last year, but it rebounded at the end of July [10]. - Import of Coking Coal: In June 2025, China's coking coal imports were 9.1084 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.31% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.05%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 77.23% of the imports. Australian coal effectively supplemented the shortage of US coal. The imports of Mongolia, Russia, and Canada are expected to increase slightly [11]. - Coking Coal Inventory: As of the week of August 1, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 2.4826 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 602,100 tons; the clean coal inventory of sample coal - washing plants was 1.6638 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33,200 tons; the port coking coal inventory was 2.8211 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 278,900 tons. The inventory has been significantly reduced, and the inventory pressure has been alleviated [16]. - Coking Coal Replenishment: As of August 1, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 9.9273 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 987,800 tons, and the inventory available days were 11.52 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.63 days; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8.0379 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 795,000 tons, and the inventory available days were 12.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.3 days. Independent coking enterprises had a high enthusiasm for replenishment, while the replenishment of steel mills was relatively moderate [19]. - Coke Production: As of the week of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.69%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.51%, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 64,810 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3180 tons; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 86.62%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%, and the daily output of coke was 46,970 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110 tons. The capacity utilization rate and output were relatively stable [21]. - Iron Water Production and Coke Demand: As of the week of August 1, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 65.37%, a year - on - year increase of 58.88%; the daily iron water output was 2.4071 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,900 tons; the weekly coke consumption was 1.0832 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18,400 tons. High iron water production supported coke demand [24]. - Coke Export: In the first half of 2025, the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 350,590.4 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease of 1.3583 million tons. India's import restrictions and price competition from Indonesian coke affected China's coke export, and the export was mainly for domestic demand [25]. - Coke Inventory: As of the week of August 1, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 736,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173,000 tons but a significant decrease of 284,800 tons compared with the beginning of July; the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 6.2669 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 835,300 tons; the port coke inventory was 2.151 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 168,900 tons. The inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased significantly [28]. - Coke Price Increase: As of the week of August 1, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 45 yuan. In July, four price increases were implemented, but the fifth one was postponed due to market sentiment cooling. The price increase frequency accelerated, and the game between steel and coking enterprises intensified [29]. 3. Future Market Outlook - The demand for steel is in the seasonal off - season, and the improvement in the real - world is limited. Policy factors and position - shifting have affected the market. The coking coal inventory pressure has eased, and the price has upward elasticity, but short - term sentiment decline may correct the over - increase [33]. - The coking enterprises' price increase frequency has accelerated, and the fifth price increase has not been implemented. The short - term market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the impact of the parade on supply contraction should be focused on [36].
焦煤焦炭月度报告-20250801
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-08-01 10:44