铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron alloy's recent price increase is due to strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. After the anti - involution meeting among iron alloy enterprises last Friday, both iron alloys hit the daily limit. However, due to macro - sentiment influence and capital games, there is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, especially with the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which exerts downward pressure on iron alloys. The current supply - demand contradiction of iron alloys is relatively small, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually destocking, while silicon manganese is destocking at a faster rate. The iron alloy market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance drive is not strong. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control, and it is not advisable to chase high. Affected by the less - than - expected policy this week, iron alloys have fallen sharply and gradually returned to the fundamentals, but the risk of further short - selling is high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Alloy Price Range Forecast - Silicon Iron: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.65%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 69.0% [3]. - Silicon Manganese: The monthly price range forecast is 5300 - 6000, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 15.48%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 28.5% [3]. 3.2 Iron Alloy Hedging - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of iron alloy prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is expected based on orders, to prevent the increase of procurement costs due to the rise of iron alloy prices, iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) can be bought at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying side is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The reasons for the recent rise of iron alloys are strong policy - end expectations and coal - based price support. There is a high risk of chasing high in the short term, and there is downward pressure due to the decline of coking coal futures. The supply - demand contradiction is relatively small, with low operating rates, different destocking situations for silicon iron and silicon manganese. The market is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to policy implementation and risk control. After the policy is less than expected, the price has returned to fundamentals, but short - selling risks are high and the downward space is limited [4]. 3.4利多解读 (Beneficial Factors Analysis) - Silicon Iron: The profit in Inner Mongolia production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%. The demand of five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [7]. - Silicon Manganese: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading of the silicon - manganese industry. This week, the enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse - receipt inventory is 38.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69%. The demand of five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [5][8]. 3.5利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - Silicon Iron: The weekly operating rate of silicon - iron production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. The coking coal price has dropped significantly [8]. - Silicon Manganese: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - metal sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese [8]. 3.6 Daily Data - Silicon Iron: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [9]. - Silicon Manganese: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse - receipt quantities on different dates from July 24 to July 31, 2025, are provided, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes [10]. 3.7 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data on market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, including different regions and contract months [11][24][35].