新季种植成本驱动玉米期货近强远弱，生猪期货近月锚定现货远月交易预期，鸡蛋期货提前交易蛋价旺季不旺预期

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategies for corn, hog, and egg futures in the semi - annual report and regular reports have been verified by the market. For corn, the short - term price is under pressure, the medium - term new - season contract may first decline and then rise; for hogs, the short - term price may be strong, the medium - term supply increase makes continuous price rise difficult, and the long - term supply pressure may weaken if the policy is implemented; for eggs, the short - term price faces correction pressure, the medium - term may have a rebound, and the long - term supply pressure may re - emerge [8][15][57][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Period Review - In July, corn futures broke through and declined, hog futures rose first and then fell, and egg futures moved down. The strategies in the semi - annual report and regular reports were verified by the market. For example, for corn, the suggestion of taking profit on long positions and short - selling was verified; for hogs, the suggestion of paying attention to selling hedging opportunities was verified; for eggs, the suggestion of paying attention to high - short opportunities was verified [7][8]. - Corn 2509 contract had a monthly decline of 3.78%, closing at 2288 yuan/ton; hog 2509 contract had a monthly increase of 1.48%, closing at 14075 yuan/ton; egg 2506 contract had a monthly decline of 4.53%, closing at 3522 yuan/500 kilograms [11]. 2. Corn Variety Analysis Supply and Demand Logic - Supply: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, while the supply pressure of US corn still exists. In China, in the long - term, there is a corn production - demand gap, and the substitution pricing logic remains unchanged. In the medium - term, the focus is on new - season yield, production, and planting cost. In the short - term, continuous import corn auctions and the inverted price difference between wheat and corn in Shandong put pressure on the upward space of the spot price [13]. - Consumption: In 2025, the hog production capacity has increased, and the supply in the second half of the year is still rising. The存栏 of egg - laying and meat - poultry is high, and feed consumption is rigid. Deep - processing consumption is stable and slightly increasing, providing rigid support for corn prices [13]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the inverted price difference between wheat and corn in Shandong makes the spot price weak. In the medium - term, the new - season corn trading drivers are strengthening, and the decline in new - season planting cost puts pressure on the far - month contract expectations. In the long - term, the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost remains, and policy guidance should be focused on [14]. Trading Strategy - In the short - term, the weakness continues to test the lower support. In the medium - term, the new - season contract may first decline and then rise. The 09 contract may continue to fluctuate, with the medium - term support at 2250; the 11 contract is the weakest and short - selling opportunities can be considered, with the medium - term support at 2180 - 2200; the 01 contract can consider low - buying opportunities, with the medium - term support at 2150 - 2200 [15]. 3. Hog Market Analysis Macro and Industry Logic - Macro Logic: Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and hog prices and industrial policy guidance [53]. - Industry Logic: Under the background of normalized epidemics after African Swine Fever, passive capacity reduction leads to significant short - term fluctuations in hog prices. The large - scale concentration process of the breeding end is not over, and the production capacity of the top 30 breeding groups in 2025 is expected to increase year - on - year [53]. "Anti - involution" Policy - Driven Futures Logic - The second quarter of 2026 may be the watershed of hog supply. The sow reduction policy only affects the supply after May 2026. The 2605 contract is the turning point. Before 2605, the supply is abundant, and after 2605, the supply may decrease if the sow number decreases [54]. - Low raw material costs may limit the premium of far - month contracts. In 2026, the full cost of leading breeding enterprises may be 12 - 13 yuan/kg, and the hog price may fluctuate between 13 - 15 yuan/kg [56]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the reduction in hog slaughter at the end and beginning of the month may support the price to stop falling and stabilize. In the medium - term, the supply increase in the second half of the year makes continuous price rise difficult. In the long - term, if the policy is implemented, the supply pressure after the second quarter of next year may weaken, driving up the valuation of next - year's second - half contracts [57]. 4. Egg Variety Analysis Supply and Demand Logic - Egg prices are mainly driven by the supply side, and consumption is seasonally driven. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a historical high, and new production capacity is still being put into operation. Seasonal peak consumption may support the price to rise periodically. The key is the rhythm and amplitude of capacity elimination [82]. Variety Viewpoint - In the short - term, the egg price has confirmed the bottom but faces correction pressure due to rising inventory. In the medium - term, concentrated elimination and the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak may drive a price rebound, but the rebound height depends on the chicken culling rhythm. In the long - term, if the breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [83]. Trading Strategy - The short - selling strategies in the first half of the year have been verified. Currently, it is recommended to hold short positions. The 2509 contract should pay attention to the support at 3400 - 3450, and the 2510 contract at 3250 - 3280 [83].