冠通每日交易策略-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper: After the copper tariff is implemented, the market returns to fundamentals. With prices falling continuously, downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices, and trading sentiment has improved. The short - term market is bearish, and the price may find support around 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to whether the non - farm payroll data tonight affects the interest rate cut expectation [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply - demand situation has tightened, which supports the downside. However, there is a possibility of giving back the gains if the production suspension news is falsified [8]. - Crude Oil: The recent crude oil price is in a strong oscillation. On August 3, the 8 voluntary OPEC+ production - cut countries will announce their September crude oil production policy, so it is recommended to operate cautiously and mainly wait and see [10]. - Asphalt: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. The cost support has strengthened, and policies are more favorable for the far - month outlook, but the impact on the near - month is limited [11][12]. - PP: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. It is recommended to conduct a 09 - 01 reverse spread. The industry has not seen actual policy implementation, and the market sentiment is weakening [13]. - Plastic: It is expected to oscillate in the near term. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. The industry lacks actual policy support, and the macro - sentiment is weakening [14][15]. - PVC: It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. The demand has not improved substantially, and the macro - sentiment is cooling [16]. - Coking Coal: The downward space is limited under the expectation of supply tightening, but attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent production decline on demand [18]. - Urea: The market is still in a weak operation as the fundamentals lack obvious support [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 1, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Lithium carbonate and red dates rose by more than 1%. Coking coal dropped by more than 7%, and industrial silicon dropped by more than 4%. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:28 on August 1, Shanghai copper 2509, coking coal 2601, and Shanghai gold 2510 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Individual Futures Analysis Copper - The US imposed a 50% import tariff on semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive manufactured goods on August 1. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly. The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling. The copper tariff implementation may affect export demand. The short - term market is bearish [7]. Lithium Carbonate - It opened high and closed low, then rose in the afternoon and ended up. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The market expects a reduction in supply, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream demand is expected to increase [8]. Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. The US crude oil inventory is at a low level, but the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will make decisions on September production on August 3. The price is in a strong oscillation [10]. Asphalt - The supply is expected to decrease in August. The downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level. The cost support has strengthened, and it is expected to oscillate [11][12]. PP - The downstream and enterprise开工 rates are at a low - to - neutral level. The US tariff and propane import restrictions have an impact. The inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [13]. Plastic - The开工 rate has increased. The downstream开工 rate is at a low level. The inventory is high. The cost has increased. It is expected to oscillate [14][15]. PVC - The开工 rate is at a high level. The downstream demand is weak. The inventory is high. The demand has not improved substantially, and it is expected to oscillate downward [16]. Coking Coal - The supply may be tightened, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The demand from downstream steel mills is strong, but attention should be paid to the impact of production decline [18]. Urea - The production is expected to decrease slightly. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The inventory has started to accumulate. The market is weak [19].