市场大幅波动点评：股市正常回调，或成为新的“财富锚”

Market Overview - A-share market experienced a normal correction with declines of 0.40% and 1.36% on July 30 and 31, 2025, respectively[1] - The bond market showed an upward trend, with 30-year treasury futures rising by 0.47% and 0.57% on the same dates, indicating a stock-bond seesaw effect[2] Economic Factors - Recent US-China trade talks did not yield new agreements, but the market impact is expected to be minimal as tariffs are likely to be extended for 90 days[2] - The Politburo meeting emphasized a proactive fiscal policy and moderate monetary easing, supporting a GDP growth target of 5.0% for the year, which reduces growth pressure for the second half[2] Asset Performance - Major asset classes like cash, bonds, gold, and real estate are underperforming, with bank deposit rates below 1.0% and 10-year treasury yields fluctuating between 1.62% and 1.75%[4][5] - The real estate market shows declining trends, with first-tier cities experiencing a drop in second-hand housing prices and second-tier cities like Nanjing and Xiamen seeing prolonged stagnation[5] Equity Market Insights - The equity market has demonstrated a strong wealth effect, with the Wind ordinary stock fund index rising by 16.18% and QDII funds increasing by 11.85% in 2025[6] - As of July 31, 2025, A-share valuations remain attractive, with average P/E ratios below the 50th percentile of the last 15 years[6] Policy Environment - Continuous policy improvements are enhancing the attractiveness of the A-share market, with recent measures aimed at increasing capital market inclusivity and stability[7] - Initiatives such as the public fund reform and strategies to attract long-term capital are expected to bolster market confidence[7] Future Outlook - The current market correction is viewed as a healthy adjustment within an upward trend, with the potential for the stock market to become a new "wealth anchor" for investors[8] - Given the poor performance of other asset classes, the equity market is positioned to offer better opportunities moving forward[8]