沥青月报：缺少核心驱动，关注成本端的变化-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - In July, the domestic asphalt market fundamentals weakened marginally. Supply pressure increased due to the expected third - quarter terminal rush and high asphalt cracking spreads, while demand decreased because of weather - related construction disruptions. Socially - held inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. Macro improvements had limited support for the market. Cost - driven factors led to a short - term strengthening of oil prices, which in turn drove the asphalt market. Currently, the asphalt market lacks a core driving factor and is mainly influenced by crude oil. Given the medium - to long - term expectation of crude oil supply surplus, the asphalt price is expected to continue to fluctuate widely. For trading strategies, pay attention to the pressure range of 3700 - 3750 for the BU2510 contract, and consider short - selling if US sanctions on Russia are lower than market expectations [69]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - In July, the asphalt futures price fluctuated widely. On one hand, the asphalt fundamentals showed a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand. Asphalt production continued to rise as refinery operating rates increased, while demand weakened due to the typhoon season in the southern region. Social inventories remained at a high level, suppressing prices. On the other hand, the marginal improvement in the supply and demand of crude oil supported oil prices. In the context of less prominent fundamental contradictions, the cost was the main influencing factor for asphalt prices [6]. 02 Macro Analysis - Trade Agreements: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and Chinese counter - measures for 90 days. The US reached trade agreements with the EU, Japan, etc., and also imposed new tariffs on South Korea, India, and Brazil. In the short term, trade tensions were effectively alleviated, which supported oil prices to some extent. However, the long - term impact on the global economy remains uncertain [8]. - Fed's Interest - Rate Decision: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with market expectations. Two Fed officials opposed the decision, indicating a weakening of internal consensus. Fed Chairman Powell's speech was hawkish, and the probability of a September interest - rate cut decreased. The interest - rate decision and Powell's speech added uncertainty to the future interest - rate adjustment rhythm [12]. - Geopolitical Tensions: US President Trump set a deadline for Russia to reach a peace agreement with Ukraine and threatened sanctions if the goal was not achieved. The US also imposed large - scale sanctions on Iran. These events raised concerns about the supply side of the market and supported the recent strengthening of oil prices [13]. 03 Supply - Demand Analysis - OPEC+ Production: OPEC+ unexpectedly increased production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the market expects a continued increase in September to reach the target of restoring 2.2 million barrels per day of production. The market has fully priced in the OPEC+ production increase, and the key lies in the speed and scale of the increase. It is expected that this round of production increase will be completed by the end of the fourth quarter. Additionally, Kazakhstan's production exceeded the quota, raising concerns about OPEC+ internal price competition [16][17]. - IEA, EIA, and OPEC Forecasts: In July, IEA, EIA, and OPEC had different expectations for global crude oil supply and demand growth. IEA raised the supply growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day and lowered the demand growth forecast by 16,000 barrels per day, maintaining a pessimistic outlook. EIA and OPEC maintained their previous forecasts, expecting demand improvement due to the easing of global trade tensions [19]. - Domestic Asphalt Supply: In July, domestic asphalt production was 2.55 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 234,000 tons or 10.5%. The operating rate of domestic refineries increased, with significant increases in the East China and Shandong regions. The asphalt cracking spread fluctuated, and the expected third - quarter terminal rush demand drove the refinery operating rate to rise, increasing supply pressure [21][29]. - Domestic Asphalt Demand: In July, domestic asphalt shipments were 1.867 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 88,000 tons. Rainy weather restricted terminal construction, weakening demand. As the rainy season ended, shipments increased week - on - week. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity increased, but the long - term growth space is limited [30][33]. - Import and Export: In June, domestic asphalt imports were 375,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22,000 tons or 5.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 32.56%. Exports were 29,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons. From January to June, cumulative imports decreased by 11.53% year - on - year, while cumulative exports increased by 53.36% year - on - year [40][43]. - Inventory: As of August 1, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 700,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The social inventory was 1.343 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons. Factory inventory decreased slightly due to lower production and increased terminal construction, while social inventory increased slightly due to weak demand and remained at a high level [52][57]. - Price Spread: As of August 1, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 551.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5 yuan/ton. The asphalt basis was 76 yuan/ton, and the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 57.25 as of July 31. The asphalt cracking spread weakened, and the basis first strengthened and then weakened, indicating weak price support from the demand side [67].