原油月报：关注柴油裂解走弱迹象-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - In August, attention should be paid to the trend of diesel cracking. In the case of poor gasoline consumption, diesel cracking has led the refining economy of refineries. If diesel cracking continues to weaken, it will directly damage the refinery operating rate, making it difficult for the crude oil consumption side to resist the increasing supply pressure, thus putting pressure on oil prices in August. However, there are several major disturbing factors in the market in August, such as Russian oil sanctions and trade negotiations that bundle the purchase of Russian oil, which may affect Russian oil supply and reignite diesel cracking. In addition, whether OPEC+ will further withdraw from production cuts in the fourth quarter is also worthy of attention [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly View - Last month's view: The northern hemisphere consumption peak season can support the market to some extent, resist the supply increase pressure, and make short - term oil prices fluctuate slightly stronger. But the peak of the consumption season is about to end, and then the supply pressure will gradually increase, with limited upside space. Key events this month, such as the end of the tariff suspension period and the follow - up negotiation of the Iranian nuclear issue, need attention [8] - This month's trend analysis: Oil prices fluctuated narrowly in the first half of July. With the completion of tariff negotiations between the US, Japan, and Europe, and Trump's announcement of a 10 - day ultimatum on sanctions against Russia, oil prices showed a stronger trend in the last week of July [8] - This month's main points: Crude oil fundamentals show that domestic oil storage makes the eastern market's monthly spread stronger, and there are signs of weakening diesel cracking; US travel consumption shows a shift from gasoline demand to jet fuel demand, indicating US consumption downgrade; Market disturbance factors include Russian oil sanctions, OPEC+ production increases, and tariff negotiations; The labor market is an important reference for the Fed to cut interest rates in the context of persistent inflation [8] 3.2 Monthly Key Points - East - West market near - month spread differentiation: Western market spreads (WTI and Brent) generally declined this month, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand, but rebounded in the last week. Eastern market spreads are still strong, which is related to China's imports [12] - China's inventory increase and absorption: China's cumulative change in implied crude oil inventory from March to June this year (+645) is the highest in recent years. The increase in inventory is due to falling oil prices and intentional storage. New policies to improve energy security have led to additional demand, making the eastern crude oil near - month spread stronger than the western one [15] - Diesel cracking shows signs of weakening: Global cracking generally maintained a volatile or strong trend this month, but showed signs of weakening before the end of the month, mainly contributed by diesel. Diesel cracking has been strong and driven the previous cracking increase, but recently it has shown signs of weakening. Gasoline cracking has been mediocre this year [17][19] - Global diesel inventory is generally low: Diesel inventories in the US and China, the world's major consumers, are at multi - year lows. Northwest European port diesel inventories are relatively neutral, and Singapore's middle distillate inventories are at a low level after continuous decline [22] - Gasoline demand shifts to jet fuel demand, indicating US consumption downgrade: US gasoline demand during the driving peak season this year was dismal, while jet fuel demand reached a five - year high. This reflects that US residents are turning to more short - distance self - driving travel and reducing travel budgets, especially in low - income groups [25] - Market disturbance factors - Russian oil sanctions, OPEC+ meetings: Trump's shortening of the ultimatum on Russia from 50 days to 10 days has made this short - term disturbance factor affect oil prices. The OPEC+ JMMC meeting ended in July without proposing production policy suggestions. The market expects OPEC+ to further increase production in the fourth quarter [26] - Tariff situation: The US has reached a new 15% tariff agreement with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, and extended the tariff suspension with China and Mexico for 90 days. Trump has signed an executive order to determine the reciprocal tariff rates for multiple countries and regions, which may drag down the global economy [28] - Inflation and the Fed: With the end of the downward trend of crude oil prices since April, the downward trend of inflation driven by falling energy prices is expected to slow down. The labor market is the most important consideration for the Fed to cut interest rates. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates once this year [30] - North American hurricane forecast: According to NOAA's forecast, the hurricane activity this year has a 60% chance of exceeding the normal level, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Hurricanes can affect offshore drilling platforms and coastal refineries [32] 3.3 Price, Spread, Cracking - Crude oil futures and spot trends: Multiple charts show the trends of various crude oil futures and spot prices, including OPEC basket price, WTI, Brent, etc. [35] - Brent and WTI crude oil positions: Charts present the net long positions of Brent and WTI futures and options, as well as the relationship between price and the proportion of net long positions of different types of traders [37][40] - Crude oil futures structure, monthly spread, cross - market spreads: Data shows the structure, monthly spreads, and cross - market spreads of WTI, Brent, Oman, and SC crude oil futures [43][46][49] - Spot spreads: Include cross - market, American, Asian spot spreads, and Saudi OSP. Saudi OSP for different grades of oil to different regions has changed in August compared to July [52][55][58][59] - Refined product prices and cracking: Charts show the futures and spot prices and cracking spreads of refined products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions [64][66][69][72] 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - Global and regional crude oil supply: Data on global, non - OPEC+, OPEC, and OPEC+ crude oil supply, as well as the supply of major non - OPEC and OPEC countries, are presented. The global rig count and US crude oil rig - related data are also included [85][88][91][94][100] - Global and regional crude oil demand: Data on global, OECD, and non - OECD crude oil demand, as well as the demand of major countries in OECD and non - OECD regions, are provided [109][112][115] - Crude oil inventory: Inventory data of the US, OECD, and other regions, including total inventory, commercial inventory, and strategic reserve, are given. The EIA balance sheet shows that the supply - demand balance is positive from 2025Q1 to 2025Q4 [118][139] 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - EIA weekly report main data: Include crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude oil chain inventory [154] - Supply: Data on the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, propane - propylene, and their yields are provided [157][160] - Refining demand: Information on refinery crude oil input, operating rate, and refining capacity is presented [163] - Four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand: Data on total demand, gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel demand are shown [166]