中观景气 7 月第 5 期：周期品延续涨价，空调内销排产转负

Group 1 - The report indicates that the prices of cyclical products continue to rise, while the domestic production of air conditioners has turned negative [7][8]. - Real estate sales remain sluggish, with a year-on-year decline of 11.0% in the transaction area of 30 major cities, and the air conditioner production for August is expected to decline significantly due to high base effects from the previous year [8][11]. - The service consumption sector shows seasonal improvement, but long-distance passenger transport demand has decreased, indicating that the summer service consumption outlook remains uncertain [7][8]. Group 2 - In the manufacturing sector, the expectation of anti-involution policies has increased, leading to a rise in steel and float glass prices, while cement prices remain under pressure due to weak demand affected by rainy weather [9][26]. - The operating rates in the manufacturing sector show mixed trends, with a notable decline in petroleum asphalt production, while recruitment intentions among companies have slightly improved [37][9]. - The prices of upstream resources, including thermal coal and industrial metals, have continued to rise, driven by increased demand and tightening supply expectations [46][48]. Group 3 - Long-distance passenger transport demand has slightly decreased, while domestic freight and express logistics have shown a decline in activity, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volume down by 0.6% and 2.1% respectively [55][57]. - The report highlights that the average price of live pigs has decreased by 1.2% week-on-week, attributed to increased market supply due to rising temperatures [13][19]. - The report notes that the average price of floating glass has increased by 2.2% week-on-week, reflecting improved market demand despite general market conditions [30][26].