尿素早评20250801:重回基本面，下行压力加剧-20250801

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After the Politburo meeting, the expectation of anti - involution policy fluctuated, coking coal prices declined, and most coal - chemical products followed suit. Urea supply pressure remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons at a high level. Although enterprise inventories are slightly decreasing mainly due to increased port collection, upstream enterprise inventories are still around 750,000 tons. Domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season, and if export demand cannot be supplemented, urea prices will face significant downward pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Futures Prices: UR01 closed at 1736 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan or 1.92% from the previous day; UR05 closed at 1775 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 1.50%; UR09 closed at 1714 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan or 1.61% [1] - Spot Prices: Domestic spot prices in most regions remained stable, with only the price in Jiangsu dropping 10 yuan/ton or 0.56% to 1780 yuan/ton [1] - Basis and Spreads: The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 27 yuan/ton to - 5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 7 yuan/ton to - 39 yuan/ton [1] - Upstream and Downstream Prices: Upstream coal prices and downstream product prices (such as compound fertilizer, melamine) remained unchanged [1] 2. Important Information - The previous trading day, the opening price of the main urea futures contract 2509 was 1739 yuan/ton, the highest was 1739 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1709 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1714 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1722 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 141,557 lots [1] 3. Trading Strategy - Due to the complex policy expectations and the current fundamental situation of urea, it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]