铝月报(2025年7月)-20250801

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Monthly Report (July 2025) [2] - Author: Fan Ling - Report Date: August 1, 2025 - Institution: AVIC Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is influenced by multiple factors including macro - economic conditions, supply - demand dynamics of raw materials and finished products, and downstream consumption trends. The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation. In the short - term, the aluminum price may fluctuate within a certain range, with support at 20,000 yuan/ton. Long - term trends depend on the implementation of policies, the recovery of downstream consumption, and the balance of supply and demand [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In July, the alumina futures price fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, with a maximum of 3,577 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 7.94%. The electrolytic aluminum futures also showed a similar trend but with a smaller increase, operating in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [6][7]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects - Tariff Situation: China and the US extended the tariff for 90 days, and short - term tariff disturbances subsided. The US announced a new version of "reciprocal tariffs" with a base rate of 10%, and most countries' rates are within 20% [9][10]. - US Economic Data: US economic and employment data are strong, with inflation still at risk of rising. The strong economic fundamentals make the mutual exclusivity of a strong economy and interest rate cuts gradually apparent, and the expectation of a September interest rate cut may be further reduced [13][14]. - Domestic Economy: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of stable - growth policies. The manufacturing PMI and GDP growth rate show certain trends, and the government has introduced a series of policies to promote economic development [17]. 3.3 Supply - Side Analysis - Bauxite Supply: Domestic bauxite supply is disturbed but relatively loose. In Guinea, although some mines resumed production, the rainy season affected the shipment volume in July. However, the large increase in imports in the first half of the year and high available inventory, along with the resumption of production in previously shut - down mines, make the price of imported bauxite expected to have limited rebound [20][24]. - Alumina Supply: The expectation of alumina supply surplus remains unchanged. As of late July, the national alumina production capacity and operating capacity increased, and the operating capacity reached a new high for the year. The increase in production capacity is mainly due to the expansion of a medium - sized alumina enterprise in Shandong. In the future, with the commissioning of alumina production capacity in Indonesia and the possible opening of the import window, the import volume of alumina may increase [25][27]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Supply: Domestic electrolytic aluminum continues to maintain high profits. The utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is significantly higher than that of upstream alumina and downstream aluminum products industries, and the supply is rigid. The utilization rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has exceeded 95%, and new production capacity is limited in the future due to the capacity ceiling. The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased in the first half of the year, and some capacity replacement projects were put into operation in July [32][36]. - Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum Supply: The overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity has no significant change recently. The 50 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of PT KALIMANTAN in Indonesia will be put into production in stages, with 10 tons expected to be put into production in 2025 and full production in 2027. If all overseas production capacity is put into operation as scheduled, the production growth rate is expected to reach 3% - 5% in 2026 - 2027 [38][39]. 3.4 Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Processing: The average operating rate of downstream processing enterprises decreased slightly. Different sectors have different trends. For example, the aluminum foil sector has a production - reduction expectation in August, and the building materials sector continues to be in the off - season. The aluminum cable sector is expected to recover in the second half of August, while the terminal consumption of primary and secondary aluminum alloy sectors is difficult to improve significantly in August [41][42]. - Real Estate Demand: The demand for aluminum in the real estate industry is still weak. The new construction area, completion area, and investment in real estate development all decreased year - on - year in the first half of the year, and the real estate sector is still in the process of destocking [46][48]. - Automobile Industry Demand: The use of aluminum in the automobile industry will maintain a high - growth trend. In the first half of the year, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased year - on - year. Although the new - energy vehicle industry faces some growth - slowdown pressure, multiple favorable factors in the second half of the year will help drive automobile consumption growth, which will also drive the demand for aluminum [49][51]. - Home Appliance Industry Demand: The production schedule of home appliances is still decreasing year - on - year, but the decline in August is expected to narrow. The production schedule of air - conditioners in August decreased compared with the same period last year, but the decline rate has converged. High - temperature weather and replacement subsidies have promoted the sales of air - conditioners and reduced the inventory [52][54]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - Exchange Inventories: The inventories of the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) increased. The LME aluminum inventory reached a new high in more than three and a half months, and the SHFE aluminum inventory has increased for four consecutive weeks [55][56]. - Aluminum Ingot Inventories: The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate, but the increase did not exceed the seasonal level, and the current inventory level is still relatively low, which still supports the price. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation rhythm in August [58][59]. 3.6 Other Market Features - Scrap Aluminum Market: The scrap aluminum procurement market is tight, and the price is firm. The reasons include limited imports, limited domestic scrap aluminum increment but increasing demand, and the procurement preference of large enterprises for large - scale ticket - issuing recyclers [61][62]. - Price Difference between Electrolytic Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy: The price difference between domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level, mainly because the downstream demand is weak in the traditional off - season, while the accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is relatively slow and that of domestic aluminum alloy social inventory is relatively fast [64][65].