饲料养殖周度报告-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the strong Brazilian premium supports the import cost. The soybean meal is waiting for a direction at the 3000 mark. The rapeseed meal has rigid demand support and intensified fluctuations, suitable for short - term trading [46]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the global soybean supply is abundant, and the trade prospects are easing, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [47]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of major feed and livestock futures and spot contracts mostly declined in the week from July 23 to July 31, 2025. For example, the M2509 soybean meal futures contract fell from 3095 to 3000, a decrease of 95 or 3%; the RM509 rapeseed meal futures contract dropped from 2758 to 2699, a decrease of 59 or 2% [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Cost - end: The weather in US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and Chinese demand is weak. The USDA's export sales report shows that US soybean export sales increased in the week ending July 24, 2025. Brazil's expected soybean exports in August decreased to 550 million tons, and Argentina lowered soybean and related product export taxes [10]. - Supply: In June 2025, China imported 1226.4 million tons of soybeans, and from January to June 2025, the cumulative import was 4937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [10]. - Demand: On July 30, the crushing profit of imported Brazilian soybeans for October shipment was - 43 yuan/ton, and the spot crushing profit was 45 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous week. On July 31, the total bean - meal sales of major domestic oil mills was 43.60 million tons, with the operating rate of 62.79%, down 0.08% from the previous day [10]. - Inventory: As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the domestic soybean - meal inventory was 107.5 million tons, up 5.5 million tons or 5.34% from the previous week. It is estimated that the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills in July will be about 1000 million tons, remaining at a historical high [10]. 3.3 Supply - end (Import) - As of July 31, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was 468.00 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the CNF price of imported US - West soybeans was 447.00 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18]. 3.4 Supply - end (Crushing) - In the week ending July 31, the soybean crushing profit was 85.65 yuan/ton, down 9.75 yuan/ton from the previous week. In the week ending July 25, the weekly soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 226.31 million tons, up 11.55 million tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 58%, up 3 percentage points from the previous week [24]. 3.5 Inventory - end - As of July 31, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 683.92 million tons, up 15.99 million tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year low. As of July 25, the soybean - meal inventory of oil mills was 96.10 million tons, up 5.27 million tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year medium level [28]. 3.6 Demand - end - As of July 25, the average daily sales volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 13.23 million tons, up 1.86 million tons from the previous week, at a near - five - year medium - low level [32]. 3.7 Pig - supply and Demand No detailed content provided. 3.8 Pig - slaughter and Breeding Profit No detailed content provided. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The strong Brazilian premium supports the import cost. The soybean meal is at the 3000 mark waiting for a direction. The rapeseed meal has rigid demand support, with intensified fluctuations, suitable for short - term trading [46]. - Medium - to - long - term: The global soybean supply is abundant, and the trade prospects are easing, limiting the continuous upward momentum of the soybean complex [47]. 3.10 Next - week Concerns The concerns include the weather in producing areas, trade relations, and the arrival schedule of imported soybeans [48].