Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips in August. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, and the overall shortage of copper mines throughout the year supports copper prices. In the short - term, due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the further decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices are in a continuous adjustment, with a support level at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, and the tight supply of copper mines will continue to support copper prices, so the strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7]. Summary by Directory 01后市研判 - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, providing support for copper prices. In the short - term, copper prices are adjusting due to tariff implementation and the decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, with a support at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, expect two interest - rate cuts this year, and continue to maintain the buying - on - dips strategy [6][7]. 02行情回顾 - In July, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the 232 policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. On July 14, copper prices hit the monthly low of 77,700 yuan/ton. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. But after the sentiment faded, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [9][10]. 03宏观面 - International Situation: On August 1, the 50% copper tariff excluded electrolytic copper, copper ore, and scrap copper. Excluding the electrolytic copper tariff made the CME market almost eliminate the tariff premium, and there is a possibility of US electrolytic copper flowing out, accelerating the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. In July, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, causing the September interest - rate cut expectation to decline further, and the US dollar index rebounded, suppressing copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as the tariff situation eases and the actual US CPI shows a moderate increase, the market has been lowering CPI expectations, opening up space for interest - rate cuts in Q3, and there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, which will gradually remove the upward pressure on metals [8]. - US Economic Data: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than expected. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value increased by 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The core PCE price index in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than expected. The strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further reduced [20]. - Domestic Situation: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of growth - stabilizing policies. From the supply side, according to the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025 - 2027)", copper smelting development will shift from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, and the contradiction between mining and smelting is expected to be gradually alleviated. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" policies focus on a new round of growth - stabilizing actions, and the stable growth of the manufacturing industry will boost copper demand. In the medium - to - long - term, after the elimination of over - capacity, the supply growth rate may lag behind the demand improvement rate, further pushing up the copper price [23][26]. 04基本面 - Supply Side - Copper Ore Import: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supply from the top two suppliers, Chile and Peru, continued to decline, with Peru's decline being around 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas miners this year are zero, and the spot processing fees remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [27]. - Copper Concentrate Processing Fees: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 US dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates remained relatively inactive, and the processing fees showed a trend of "stabilizing with a slight correction". The 2025 Q2 CSPC general manager's meeting decided not to set a reference figure for the Q3 spot copper concentrate processing fees [30]. - Refined Copper Inventory: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, the rush to import copper started in April. In April and May, the US imported 200,000 tons and 210,000 tons of refined copper respectively, far exceeding the historical average of 80,000 tons, causing a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. As of June 30, the LME inventory dropped to 90,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the beginning of the year. With the implementation of the 232 policy, the LME inventory started to increase, reaching 128,000 tons by July 25. The New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high in more than seven years. As of July 31, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the 28th [33]. - Electrolytic Copper Production: In the first half of 2025, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons, or 11.40%. In July, the estimated production was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss - making stage, the willingness to actively reduce production is not strong [36]. - Scrap Copper Import: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to rise by more than 20%, and the supply from Asian countries such as Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea also increased to varying degrees, while the supply from the US decreased by more than 80%. Due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, the increased supply from other countries compensated for the decrease from the US [39]. - Demand Side - Power Sector: In 2025, the State Grid's investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the power grid investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power source project investment increased by 5.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the over - expected growth of photovoltaic and wind power installations. If the two - grid companies complete their planned investment of 825 billion yuan, there is still significant room for growth in power grid investment. Affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41%. From January to June, China's cable exports were 1.4296 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.63%. The "Belt and Road" countries have great potential in promoting China's power material exports [41]. - Real Estate Sector: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and housing construction area decreased by 9.1%. New housing starts decreased by 20.0%, and housing completions decreased by 14.8%. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventory is decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [45]. - Automobile Sector: From January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is approaching 50%. China's automobile exports were 3.083 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 75.2%. The growth of the automobile industry will drive copper consumption [48]. - Home Appliance Sector: In June, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the combined production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The production plan for household air - conditioners in August was 11.443 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, but the decline was expected to narrow compared to the previous month. The high - temperature weather in summer and the "trade - in" subsidy policy promoted air - conditioner sales and inventory digestion [51].
铜月报(2025年7月)-20250801
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-08-01 11:43