聚丙烯风险管理日报-20250801

Report Information - Report Title: Polypropylene Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 1, 2025 - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Gu Hengye (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03143348) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Recent macro sentiment has cooled, and polyolefins have given back some gains. The PP fundamentals have not changed much recently. Although the current PP plant maintenance rate is still high, bringing marginal reduction, the large number of new plant startups has led to new supply increments. So, even during the peak plant maintenance season, PP production remains at a high level. On the demand side, as the downstream is still in the off - season, overall demand is weak. In general, the supply - demand pressure of PP has not been fundamentally alleviated, and the upside space is still relatively limited. Future attention should be paid to the downstream demand situation of PP [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 7000 - 7300 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.48%, and the current volatility's historical percentile (3 - year) is 6.7% [2] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures according to inventory, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 7250 - 7300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell the call option PP2509C7300 with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 10 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory planning to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2509 futures at present with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 7000 - 7050 yuan/ton to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell the put option PP2509P7000 with a hedging ratio of 75% and a recommended entry range of 10 - 50 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. If the price drops, they can lock in the spot purchase price [2] Core Contradictions - Macro sentiment cooling has led to polyolefins giving back gains. PP supply remains high due to new plant startups despite high maintenance rates, and demand is weak as the downstream is in the off - season. The supply - demand pressure is not fundamentally alleviated, and the upside space is limited [3] Negative Factors - Two sets of equipment in Daxie are expected to be put into operation in early August. Multiple plants will be put into operation from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH profits have recovered, and marginal plants are gradually returning. Exports are seasonally weak, and the export window is currently closed [4] Polypropylene Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The basis of the polypropylene main contract on August 1, 2025, was not provided; on July 31, it was - 8 yuan/ton, and on July 25, it was - 81 yuan/ton. The daily change was 8 yuan/ton, and the weekly change was 81 yuan/ton. The prices of PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts decreased compared to the previous day and week. The month - to - month spreads of PP1 - 5, PP5 - 9, and PP9 - 1 also changed [5][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased compared to the previous day and week. The regional spreads between East China - North China and East China - South China also changed [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between various non - standard and standard polypropylene products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil price remained unchanged from the previous day but increased compared to a week ago. The US propane price, Northwest coal price, and other upstream prices changed. The processing profits of oil - based, coal - based, and other PP production methods also changed [8]