苹果产业风险管理日报-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market is in the fruit expansion period of apples, with few trading points on the futures market. The opening price of early - maturing apples is higher than last year and they are easy to sell, while inventory apples are dropping in price and hard to sell. The recent rise in the futures market was mainly due to low inventory, early - maturing apple prices and sales, as well as the boost from agricultural product consumption policies, but the price quickly fell as the sentiment faded [3]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the apple market. Bullish factors include low inventory in production areas and potential yield reduction due to unstable weather. Bearish factors include less - than - expected yield reduction and the impact of seasonal fruits [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for apples is 7600 - 8400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a historical percentile of 0.1% over 3 years [3]. Apple Risk Management Strategy - Inventory Management: For those worried about new apple over - production and low purchase prices (long in spot), they can short the AP2510 apple futures at 7850 - 7900 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell the AP2510C7900 call options at 120 - 150 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - Procurement Management: For those worried about old - crop inventory decline, new - crop yield reduction and high purchase prices (short in spot), they can buy the AP2510 apple futures at 7650 - 7700 with a 50% hedging ratio and buy the AP2510P7700 put options at 140 - 160 with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. Apple Price Changes - Futures: On August 1, 2025, AP01 closed at 7685 with a daily decline of 0.8% and a weekly decline of 2.46%. Different contracts had different price changes [6]. - Spot: The prices of different grades of apples in various regions had different weekly changes, such as a - 4% weekly decline for Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples [6]. Apple Inventory - On August 1, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory according to Steel Union was 61.61 (a weekly decrease of 8.84), and according to Zhuochuang was 64.81 (a weekly decrease of 8.6). The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, Gansu and other regions also decreased [10]. Bullish Factors - Low inventory in production areas provides support for the futures market. Unstable weather in production areas may lead to yield reduction in the Northwest region [4]. Bearish Factors - The overall yield reduction is less than expected, and there is even an expected increase in production according to bagging data. The peak season of seasonal fruits impacts the apple market, and consumer demand is weak [5].