20250801中辉期货生猪月报：反内卷氛围阶段性缓和，近弱远强思路维持-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Under the guidance of the Ministry of Agriculture for orderly slaughter, some enterprises' early slaughter and the release of previously second - fattened pigs increase supply pressure. However, the considerable spread between standard and fat pigs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the bottom of pig prices [4]. - Medium - term: Piglets showed an increasing trend from January to June, so the second half of 2025 is expected to see an increase in the pig market, and over - optimism should be avoided [4]. - Long - term: The "anti - involution" process takes time. If capacity control measures are implemented, the number of pig slaughter is expected to decline in about ten months, which may push up far - month pig prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - Pig prices: The national average pig price decreased by 0.94 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg this month. Prices in various regions also declined [3][9]. - Sow prices: The average spot price of culled sows decreased by 0.78 yuan to 10.29 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 0.95 yuan to 1,641.3 yuan/head [3][11]. - Piglet prices: The average price of 7kg piglets remained stable at 444.76 yuan/head, while the average price of 15kg piglets decreased by 48.27 yuan to 468.55 yuan/head [3][13]. 3.2 Key Data - Spot prices: Most prices showed changes, such as the national average price of 15kg piglets decreasing by 0.27 yuan to 36.37 yuan/kg [7]. - Short - term supply: The national pig inventory increased by 7160 thousand heads to 424470 thousand heads, and the average slaughter weight increased by 0.18 kg to 123.67 kg [7]. - Medium - term supply: The number of piglet births increased by 10.63 thousand heads to 554.02 thousand heads, and the survival rate remained at 92.7% [7]. - Long - term supply: The inventory of breeding sows increased by 10 thousand heads to 40430 thousand heads, and the culling volume of breeding sows increased by 3296 heads to 109413 heads [7]. - Demand side: The national pig slaughter rate increased by 0.05% to 26.8%, and the Shanghai Xijiao white - striped meat arrival volume decreased by 1100 heads to 5600 heads [7]. - Policy: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.03 to 5.8 [7]. - Cost: The total cost of purchasing piglets increased by 16.32 yuan to 1719.30 yuan/head, and the self - breeding cost decreased by 7.68 yuan to 1585.76 yuan/head [7]. - Profit: The self - breeding profit increased by 0.57 yuan to 29.21 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 0.43 yuan to - 193.12 yuan/head [7]. 3.3 Short - term Supply - Inventory and slaughter: The official inventory in June was 424470 thousand heads, and the planned slaughter of sample enterprises in July increased. The average slaughter weight increased, and the post - slaughter weight of white - striped pigs decreased [23]. - Speculation: The spread between standard and fat pigs widened, and the proportion of large pigs remained at a high level [25]. 3.4 Medium - term Supply - Piglets: In June, the piglet survival rate remained stable, the number of piglet births increased, and the piglet feed sales increased slightly. The pig supply in Q4 2025 is expected to be high [30]. 3.5 Long - term Supply - Breeding sows: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased, the culling volume increased slightly, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter decreased slightly [32]. 3.6 Demand - Slaughter and sales: Affected by the off - season, demand was weak. The slaughter rate increased slightly, the fresh - sales rate decreased, the daily slaughter volume decreased, and the slaughter profit increased [37]. 3.7 Cost Analysis - Feed: The corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased [44]. - Pigs: The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding both decreased [46]. 3.8 Breeding Profit - Pigs: The self - breeding profit decreased, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased further [48]. 3.9 Price Ratio - The national pig - grain ratio decreased, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio remained high [50].