油脂月报（2025年7月）：进口前景不明，油脂稳中有涨-20250801

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In July 2025, the domestic oil market showed a steady - upward trend. The soybean oil futures rose 2.61% month - on - month, rapeseed oil futures rose 1.01% month - on - month, and palm oil futures rose 6.84% month - on - month. Externally, CBOT soybean futures fell 3.22% month - on - month, and Malaysian palm oil futures rose over 5.98% month - on - month [3]. - Looking ahead, soybean oil may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and its price breakthrough depends on weather and trade negotiations. Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term price needs to beware of policy risks. Palm oil prices may follow the external market and fluctuate strongly [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Domestic Market: In July, domestic soybean oil had cumulative inventory and weak summer consumption, but import policy uncertainty and future destocking expectations led to a 2.61% monthly increase in futures. Rapeseed oil had an oversupply situation, but price support from Sino - Canadian trade disputes led to a 1.01% monthly increase in futures with range - bound fluctuations. Palm oil had inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand, but international cost drive led to a 6.84% monthly increase in futures [3]. - External Market: In July, CBOT soybean futures declined 3.22% month - on - month due to good weather and reduced Chinese demand, but the US biodiesel policy limited the decline. Malaysian palm oil futures rose over 5.98% month - on - month, with a price pull - back in the second half of the month due to increased production and decreased exports [3]. 3.2 Future Outlook - Soybean Oil: In August, abnormal weather may change the US soybean yield forecast. The US biodiesel policy and Indonesia's B40 plan may tighten the global vegetable oil supply - demand balance. With reduced soybean arrivals and holiday stocking, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8]. - Rapeseed Oil: The domestic market currently has an oversupply situation, but with reduced coastal rapeseed inventory and oil mill production, supply may tighten in the future. Short - term prices may fluctuate strongly, and medium - to - long - term prices need to beware of policy risks related to Sino - Canadian trade [9]. - Palm Oil: If the MPOB report confirms excessive inventory accumulation in July, it may suppress Malaysian palm oil prices, but Indonesia's production reduction and export tax increase provide a bottom support. The US 45Z clause and Indonesia's B50 test may boost consumption. With high domestic import costs and low arrival expectations in August, prices may follow the external market and fluctuate strongly [10]. 3.3 Registered Warehouse Receipt Volume - The number of soybean oil warehouse receipts decreased from 18,882 last month to 13,709 this month, a decrease of 5,173. The number of palm oil warehouse receipts increased from 470 last month to 570 this month, an increase of 100. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts increased from 100 last month to 3,487 this month, an increase of 3,387 [15]. 3.4 Basis Trends of Three Major Oils - The soybean oil basis decreased from 218 last month to 178 this month, a decrease of 40. The palm oil basis decreased from 214 last month to 70 this month, a decrease of 144. The rapeseed oil basis decreased from 134 last month to 90 this month, a decrease of 44 [20]. 3.5 USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report - Global Oilseeds and Vegetable Oils: In the 2025/26 period, global oilseed production and ending inventory are expected to increase, and trade volume is expected to slightly decrease, indicating a loose supply expectation. Global vegetable oil production is basically the same as the previous forecast, trade volume is decreased, consumption is slightly increased, and the supply - demand expectation is tightened [29]. - Global Three Major Oils Consumption: In 2025/26, the consumption of the three major oils for biodiesel is expected to be 54,470 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.67%. The edible consumption is expected to be 127,556 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.21%, with a slower growth rate than the previous year [33]. - Global Soybean: In 2025/26, global soybean production is expected to increase by 864 thousand tons, mainly due to increased production in Ukraine. The crushing volume is expected to increase by 1,120 thousand tons, mainly due to increased US demand, and the export volume is expected to decrease [36]. - Global Rapeseed: In 2025/26, global rapeseed production is expected to be 8,953.6 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 388.7 thousand tons. The crushing volume is expected to decrease by 34.6 thousand tons, mainly due to decreased Canadian demand. The ending inventory is expected to be 925.9 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.44% [56]. - Global Palm Oil: In 2025/26, global palm oil production is expected to be 8,073.6 thousand tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a year - on - year increase of 2.27%. The ending inventory is expected to be 1,503.8 thousand tons, a slight decrease from the previous forecast and a year - on - year increase of 0.33% [69]. 3.6 Export and Production Data - US Soybean: As of the 47th week of the 2024/25 season, the weekly export volume was 500 thousand tons, and the cumulative export volume was 47.27 million tons, a 11.82% year - on - year increase. Exports to China were 0 tons in the week, and the cumulative exports to China were 22.48 million tons, a 5.97% year - on - year decrease. In June 2025, the US soybean crushing volume increased 5.76% year - on - year, and the ending inventory of soybean oil decreased 15.78% year - on - year [39][42][46]. - Brazilian Soybean: In June 2025, the export volume was 13.48 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 67.74 million tons, a 2.05% year - on - year increase. The estimated export volume in July was 12.055 million tons [50]. - Canadian Rapeseed: As of the 51st week of the 2024/25 crushing season, the weekly export volume was 55.1 thousand tons, and the cumulative export volume was 9.4922 million tons, a 39.21% year - on - year increase. The weekly commercial inventory was 1.2014 million tons, a 24.83% year - on - year decrease. As of June 2025, the cumulative crushing volume from January to June increased 1.36% year - on - year, but the monthly crushing volume decreased 10.27% year - on - year [61][63]. - Malaysian Palm Oil: In June 2025, the production volume increased 4.77% year - on - year, the export volume increased 4.05% year - on - year, and the inventory increased 10.89% year - on - year [74]. - Indonesian Palm Oil: In May 2025, the export volume was 2.66 million tons, and the inventory was 2.92 million tons, lower than the previous year [77]. - Indian Vegetable Oil: In June 2025, the import volume was 155 thousand tons, and the cumulative import volume in the 2024/25 season was 9.43 million tons, a decrease from the previous year. The inventory was 1.57 million tons, lower than the previous year [80]. 3.7 Chinese Import and Production Data - Import: In June 2025, soybean imports increased 10.35% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to June increased 1.83% year - on - year. Rapeseed imports decreased 69.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to June decreased 21.29% year - on - year. Rapeseed oil imports decreased 23.75% year - on - year, but the cumulative imports from January to June increased 26.34% year - on - year. Palm oil imports increased 10.99% year - on - year, but the cumulative imports from January to June decreased 11.82% year - on - year [84][88][90][93]. - Production: As of the 30th week of 2025, major soybean oil mills had similar soybean and soybean oil inventories compared to the previous year, with a slight decrease in the startup rate. The import soybean spot crushing profit increased. Coastal rapeseed oil mills had reduced rapeseed inventory but increased rapeseed oil inventory, with a slight decrease in the startup rate and increased import rapeseed spot crushing profit. The national key area palm oil inventory increased, and the import profit decreased [98][103][105].