Report Overview - Report Title: 20250801 Cotton Series Monthly Report: Weakening De-stocking Expectations due to Negative Demand Feedback, Waiting for Cotton Prices to Find the Bottom in the Off-season [1] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [1] - Team: Agricultural Products Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The negative feedback in demand has weakened the de-stocking expectations, and it is necessary to wait for cotton prices to find the bottom in the off-season [1] - In the short term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bearish. For short positions, consider gradually reducing positions to take profits, and pay attention to the opportunity of low-cost long positions in far-month contracts after the market risk is further released [2] Summary by Directory Macro - According to the consensus of the new round of China-US economic and trade talks, both sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures as scheduled. Pay attention to Trump's final decision before August 12 [2] - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Recently, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has cooled sharply under the impact of Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks [2] - The domestic Politburo meeting continued to mention "making progress while maintaining stability", "timely increasing efforts", "implementing in detail", "boosting consumption", and "governing disorderly competition", and continued to promote the acceleration of the domestic cycle [2] Supply - International: The soil conditions in the main cotton-producing areas have weakened slightly. The non-drought rate has decreased to 93% under the influence of drought in the Midwest, but it is still much higher than the same period. The latest good-to-excellent rate of US cotton is 55%, down from 57% the previous week and up from 49% the same period last year. The supply pressure in the US cotton area has weakened. In India, 9.86 million hectares of new cotton have been planted, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%. The spot cotton price has stopped rising and fallen, and the CCI has cumulatively auctioned and sold 1.22 million tons of cotton. In Brazil, the latest harvest progress has reached 21.7%, with the harvest progress in the main producing state of Bahia at 40% and that in the state of Mato Grosso at 12.6% [2] - Domestic: Xinjiang cotton has entered the flowering and boll-forming stage. The actual sown area of cotton is 45.803 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. It is estimated that the yield per mu of new cotton in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and the guaranteed output is expected to be raised to 7.4 million tons. The high-temperature weather in August is expected to gradually improve compared with July, and the probability of weather speculation is low. In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 10,000 tons from the previous month. The import volume of cotton yarn in June was 110,000 tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons from the previous month. The total import volume of cotton resources was basically the same as that in May, and no quota policy has been introduced [2] Inventory - Domestic: The total industrial and commercial inventory is slightly lower than that of the same period last year by about 40,000 tons, and the inventory in Xinjiang is lower than that of the same period by about 200,000 tons. It is estimated that the national commercial inventory by early September will be comparable to the average level of the past five years. Pay attention to the possible slowdown in the recent de-stocking speed. At the finished product end, the replenishment of cotton yarn and grey cloth has slowed down significantly this week, and the negative feedback expectation after the weakening of the downstream replenishment willingness is gradually reflected in the market [2] - International: In May 2025, the inventory value of clothing and clothing fabrics of US wholesalers was $28.636 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.73% and a month-on-month increase of 0.49%. The inventory value of retailers in May was $58.056 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.47% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.49%. The overall inventory level of US clothing is still relatively neutral, and the inventory at the retail end needs further de-stocking [2] Demand - Domestic: The orders of textile enterprises have dropped to the lowest level in the past five years. The operating rates of weaving mills and spinning mills have accelerated their decline and are lower than those of the same period. The cotton cloth transactions in the Light Textile City have been running at a recent low level. The overall price center of clothing fabrics and accessories in the Keqiao market has improved, which may indicate that the foreign trade situation is not overly pessimistic. In June 2025, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing reached $143.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The cumulative export value of textiles in June reached $70.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The cumulative export of clothing in June reached $73.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. Overall, affected by the slowdown in the export growth rate of textiles, the export growth rate of clothing and textiles has further slowed down. The US market performed slightly better than last month, and the ASEAN and EU markets were relatively stable. Pay attention to whether the extension of China-US tariffs can be finally confirmed [2] - International: The soil moisture in the main producing areas of US cotton has slightly deteriorated but is still suitable for the growth of new cotton. The trade negotiations between the US and other countries are still ongoing, and the export demand for US cotton in the second half of the year still needs to be viewed with caution [2] Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (July) - Production: In the 2025/26 season, the global production is expected to increase by 311,000 tons month-on-month to 25.78 million tons. Among them, China's production is expected to increase by 218,000 tons month-on-month to 6.749 million tons, the US production is expected to increase by 131,000 tons month-on-month to 3.048 million tons, and Pakistan's production is expected to decrease by 44,000 tons to 1.089 million tons [3] - Consumption: In the 2025/26 season, the global consumption is expected to increase by 78,000 tons month-on-month to 25.718 million tons. Among them, Pakistan's consumption is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 2.373 million tons, and the remaining small countries will share the rest [4] - Trade: In the 2025/26 season, the global imports and exports are expected to decline slightly by 20,000 - 30,000 tons month-on-month. Among them, China's imports are expected to decrease by 152,000 tons month-on-month to 1.263 million tons, and Pakistan's imports are expected to increase by 131,000 tons to 1.284 million tons [4] - Ending Inventory: In the 2025/26 season, the global ending inventory is expected to increase by 113,000 tons month-on-month to 16.833 million tons. Among them, China's ending inventory is expected to increase by 11,000 tons to 8.07 million tons, and the US ending inventory is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 1.001 million tons [4] Cotton Futures and Spot - The cotton price rose and then fell within the month, and the basis level remained high [5] Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - The futures price of cotton yarn rose and then fell within the month, and the basis performance was weaker than that of cotton [12] Supply Details - The actual sown area of US cotton is higher than expected, and the drought in the Midwest has pushed the good-to-excellent rate to decline slightly. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, down from 57% the previous week and up from 49% the same period last year. The non-drought rate in the main cotton-producing areas of the US decreased by 3% to 93%, which is 45% higher than the same period. The drought situation has slightly increased, but the soil moisture is still at the best level in the past five years, and the abandonment rate has dropped to 14.427% [14][15] - The de-stocking of raw materials has been relatively fast, but the replenishment of gauze has slowed down significantly this week. This week, the national industrial and commercial inventory decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons, lower than the same period by 37,600 tons; the commercial inventory in Xinjiang decreased to 1.7257 million tons within the month, lower than the same period by 204,600 tons; the commercial inventory in the inland decreased to 768,100 tons this week, lower than the same period by 155,100 tons. At the finished product end, the available days of pure cotton yarn inventory increased by 0.04 days to 31.86 days, the terminal grey cloth inventory increased by 0.28 days to 30.74 days, and the inventory of polyester-cotton yarn in the factory increased by 0.8 days to 28.58 days [16][17] - In June, the import of cotton resources in China did not continue to shrink. In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 10,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of about 82.1%; from January to June, China imported about 460,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of about 74.3%. According to customs statistics, in June 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 0.1% and a month-on-month increase of about 10,000 tons, an increase of about 10%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 670,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%. In the 2024/25 season (from September 2024 to June 2025), the cumulative import of cotton yarn was about 1.17 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.18% [18][19] - The de-stocking speed of warehouse receipts has accelerated slightly, and the high-sugar warehouse receipts limit the short squeeze. As of July 31, there were 8,940 registered warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou cotton, a decrease of 1,271 within the month, and 348 valid forecasts. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 9,288, equivalent to 371,500 tons of cotton. Among the warehouse receipts, the cotton resources from Eastern Xinjiang account for a relatively large proportion this year, and the problem of high sugar content in some warehouse receipts continues to limit their outflow under the current tight inventory expectations [20][21] Demand Details - The operating rates of spinning and weaving mills have accelerated their decline, and the losses of textile enterprises have deepened further. This week, the operating rate of spinning mills decreased by 1.9% to 67.6%, lower than the same period by 2.9%; the operating rate of weaving mills decreased by 0.7% to 38.2%, lower than the same period by 1.4%. The year-on-year difference in operating rates has gradually widened compared with the same period last year. The orders of textile enterprises decreased by 0.33 days to 6.94 days, lower than the same period by 2.73 days, and the difference has further expanded compared with last week. From the perspective of spinning profits, the spot profit of the mainstream yarn count within the week dropped to -1,938 yuan/ton, and the expected profit per ton of enterprises in Xinjiang dropped to less than 100 yuan [22][23] - The cotton cloth transactions in the Light Textile City have continued to weaken, and the prices of fabrics and accessories in the Keqiao market have shown a differentiated trend within the week. In the Light Textile City, the latest total transaction volume this week increased by 24,000 meters to 4.892 million meters, and the cotton cloth transaction volume decreased by 30,000 meters to 240,000 meters. In the Keqiao market, the price of accessories increased by 2.17 to 116.44 this week, and the fabric price decreased by 0.19 to 110.66 [24][26] - In June, the export of clothing and textiles decreased slightly year-on-year, and the performance of textiles continued to be weak. In terms of monthly values, the export of textile and clothing in June was $27.31 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. Among them, the export of textiles was $12.05 billion, a decrease of 1.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.6%, and the export of clothing was $15.27 billion, an increase of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 12.4%. In terms of cumulative values, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing in China reached $143.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The cumulative export value of textiles in June reached $70.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The cumulative export of clothing in June reached $73.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. Overall, the year-on-year export growth rates from April to June were all lower than that of the national goods trade. The main reason for the slowdown in export growth is that the US "reciprocal tariff" policy has had a greater impact on the textile and clothing industry chain. Although the "rush to export" of some enterprises has promoted the growth of clothing export data in May and June, the slowdown in exports to the US from ASEAN and South Asia has led to the drag of textiles on the overall export of clothing and textiles [28][30] - The export to the US has improved slightly, while the exports to ASEAN and the EU have shown a slowdown trend. In June, China's clothing exports to the US reached $3.189 billion, an increase of $607 million from the previous month but lower than the same period by $239 million; China's textile exports to the US reached $4.428 billion, an increase of $973 million from the previous month but lower than the same period by $339 million. China's clothing exports to the EU reached $3.092 billion, an increase of $425 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $4 million; China's textile exports to the EU reached $4.629 billion, an increase of $461 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $124 million. China's clothing exports to ASEAN reached $1.12 billion, an increase of $55 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $252 million; China's textile exports to ASEAN reached $3.788 billion, a decrease of $162 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $361 million [31][36] - In June, the PMI of the cotton textile industry weakened, and the demand-related indicators continued to weaken. In June, the PMI of the cotton textile industry decreased by 1.95% to 47.71%, remaining below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months. In terms of demand, the PMI of new orders increased by 3.15% to 44.68%, and the PMI of operating rates increased by 1.04% to 52.13%. In terms of inventory and production, the PMI of cotton yarn inventory increased by 12.74% to 63.83%, and the cotton inventory increased by 3.29% to 48.94%. The weakening of demand and the inventory accumulation trend at the terminal continued [37][38] CFTC Position Data - The net short positions of non-commercial and fund investors have rebounded slightly [39]
20250801棉系月报：需求负反馈弱化去库预期，等待棉价淡季寻底-20250801
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-01 11:56