Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the surge in demand due to the food delivery competition has significantly enhanced Luckin Coffee's supply chain and operational advantages, focusing on a growth strategy centered around scale [2]. - The company is projected to achieve substantial revenue growth, with total revenue expected to reach RMB 45.003 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.54% [4]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue of RMB 12.359 billion, a year-on-year increase of 47.08%, and a GAAP net profit of RMB 1.251 billion, up 43.56% year-on-year [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 24.903 billion - 2024: RMB 34.475 billion - 2025E: RMB 45.003 billion - 2026E: RMB 52.134 billion - 2027E: RMB 56.961 billion - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of: - 2023: RMB 2.848 billion - 2024: RMB 2.932 billion - 2025E: RMB 3.803 billion - 2026E: RMB 4.668 billion - 2027E: RMB 5.091 billion [4][8]. - The company’s operating profit margin (OPM) for self-operated stores in Q2 2025 was reported at 21.0%, with a gross margin benefiting from supply chain efficiencies [7]. Market Data - The current stock price is USD 38.26, with a market capitalization of USD 10.8 billion [1][5]. - The stock has traded within a range of USD 17.28 to USD 39.98 over the past 52 weeks [5]. Comparable Company Valuation - The report suggests a target price of USD 46.82 for the company, based on a PE ratio of 25 times the expected earnings for 2025, which is above the industry average [7][10].
瑞幸咖啡 2025Q2 业绩点评：外卖拉动同店环比提速，供应链优势持续显现
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-08-01 12:14