【冠通研究】沥青策略：震荡运行

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is "Oscillating operation" [1] Core Viewpoint - The report suggests interval operation for asphalt investment. It anticipates that asphalt will oscillate in the near term due to factors such as changes in supply and demand, cost support, and policy impacts [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - This week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years. In August, domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.413 million tons, a decrease of 129,000 tons (5.1%) month - on - month and an increase of 353,000 tons (17.1%) year - on - year [1] - This week, the开工 rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt开工率 remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1] - This week, the supply in the East China region recovered, mainly through ship shipments, with a significant increase in shipments. The national shipments increased by 1.26% to 272,400 tons, at a moderately low level [1] - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline this week and remained at the lowest level in recent years [1] - The U.S. allowing Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela may reduce the discount for China's purchase of asphalt raw materials. Recent increases in crude oil prices have strengthened the cost support for asphalt [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned that a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries (including petrochemicals and building materials) will be gradually released. Policies such as inventorying old petrochemical and chemical plants and eliminating 20 - year - old backward facilities are more beneficial for long - term expectations but have limited impact on the near term [1] - Next week, some refineries in Shandong and East China will switch production or have intermittent shutdowns, and rainfall in some areas will still affect the rigid demand for asphalt [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2509 fell 0.19% to 3,658 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,632 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,668 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 9,212 to 116,780 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 132 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, Xinjiang Meihuite and some refineries in Shandong resumed asphalt production. The asphalt开工率 increased by 4.3 percentage points to 33.1% week - on - week, 6.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, but still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - From January to June, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly recovered compared with January - May 2025 but remained negative [4] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was 0.6%, up from - 0.4% in January - May 2025, ending consecutive negative cumulative year - on - year growth [4] - From January to June 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 4.6%, down from 5.6% in January - May 2025 [4] - As of the week ending August 1, the开工 rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed trends. Road asphalt开工率 remained flat at 27.0%, at a relatively low level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1][4] - The government work report proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. In June 2025, the growth rate of the social financing stock increased to 8.9% (previous value: 8.7%), with new social financing of 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 908.8 billion yuan year - on - year. New government bonds were 1.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 507.2 billion yuan year - on - year. New loans were 2.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 171 billion yuan year - on - year [4] Inventory - As of the week ending August 1, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 15.5% compared with the week ending July 25, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5]