宏观视角解读国债等利息收入增值税恢复征收：恢复征收国债等利息增值税影响趋于中性

Tax Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025[1] - Interest income from bonds issued before August 8, 2025, will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity[1] - The VAT rate for bond interest income is set at 6%, with an additional 12% VAT surcharge, leading to a total effective tax rate of 6.34% on taxable amounts[2] Market Impact - The policy change is expected to have a limited impact due to the continued VAT exemption for pre-2025 bonds, potentially leading to short-term institutional buying[1] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to decline to around 1.5% amid low expectations for large-scale domestic demand stimulus[1] Taxation Details - The taxable amount for bond investments includes both interest income and transfer price differences, with the latter subject to VAT as well[2][3] - Corporate bond investors face a corporate income tax rate of 29.76% after accounting for VAT and income tax exemptions on certain bonds[4] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with fiscal policy implementation not meeting expectations and potential unexpected adjustments to tax incentives[6]