Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybeans: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Soybean Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ☆☆☆ (Buy) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Corn: ★★★ (Strong Buy) [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ (Weak Buy) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (Weak Buy) [1] Core Views - The prices of "anti - involution" commodities continued to decline, and the focus of the market was on them, making agricultural products less attractive. The third - round economic and trade negotiations between China and the US suspended the addition of tariffs, which may be extended for 90 days. The US soybean is likely to have an early - stage high - yield expectation, and the market should be treated as volatile for now [3]. - For soybeans, the domestic soybean contract price showed a volatile correction. In the short term, attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance. The US Midwest has good weather, which is conducive to a high - yield of US soybeans [2]. - Regarding soybean oil and palm oil, the price difference between US and Chinese soybean oil may cause Chinese soybean oil to strengthen in the medium - term. Due to the long - term development of US and Indonesian biodiesel and the palm oil's entry into the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the prices of domestic and foreign rapeseed products are mainly in a range - bound state. The supply of new - season Canadian rapeseed is affected by weather, and the trade relationship between the US and Canada may affect the export of Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6]. - For corn, the auction results of imported corn were average, and the corn futures continued to run weakly in a volatile manner. The US corn is under pressure, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [7]. - For live pigs, the futures prices continued to correct, and the supply is expected to be sufficient in the medium - term. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when prices are high [8]. - For eggs, the near - month futures prices of eggs continued to fall to new lows, while the far - month futures were relatively resistant to decline. If the egg prices can reduce production capacity through price drops in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - The domestic soybean main - contract price showed a volatile correction. The total trading volume of domestic soybean purchase and sale was 40,302 tons, with a base price of 4,200 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,268 yuan/ton. In the short term, there is a risk of waterlogging in low - lying farmland in Northeast China. The US Midwest has good weather, and there may be a high - yield of US soybeans this year [2]. - The "anti - involution" commodities continued to decline, and the US soybean is under pressure. About 5% of the US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought as of July 29, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans is 70%, at a high level in the same period of history. There may be an early - stage high - yield expectation for US soybeans, and the market should be treated as volatile for now [3]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The price difference between US and Chinese soybean oil rose and then slightly declined this week. Historically, the price difference usually peaks and then falls in the third quarter. In the medium - term, Chinese soybean oil may strengthen to catch up with the overseas market. A strategy of buying on dips is maintained for soybean oil and palm oil, and attention should be paid to the risk of the oil - strong and meal - weak situation [4]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The prices of domestic and foreign rapeseed products are mainly in a range - bound state. The initial inventory of new - season Canadian rapeseed is low, and the yield is closely related to weather. The yield forecast by the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture and Agri - Food in late July is 17.8 million tons. The US has raised the tariff on Canadian goods, which may affect the export of Canadian rapeseed products. In the short - term, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [6]. Corn - Two auctions of imported corn were held by Sinograin today. The transaction rate of US genetically - modified corn was 31% with a volume of 186,200 tons, and that of Ukrainian non - genetically - modified corn was 68% with a volume of 8,600 tons. The corn futures continued to run weakly in a volatile manner. About 7% of the US corn - producing areas were affected by drought as of July 29, and the Dalian corn futures may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom [7]. Live Pigs - The live - pig futures prices continued to correct, and the performance of related stocks in the breeding industry was in sync with the futures market. The short - term supply decreased, leading to a rise in spot prices. However, the supply is expected to be sufficient in the medium - term, and it is recommended that the industry conduct hedging when prices are high [8]. Eggs - The near - month futures prices of eggs continued to fall to new lows, while the far - month futures were relatively resistant to decline. The spot prices were stable with a weak trend. If the egg prices can reduce production capacity through price drops in the second half of this year, the egg price cycle may reverse next year, and the far - month futures prices have shown some signs of this expectation [9].
国投期货农产品日报-20250801
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-08-01 13:20