中航期货铝月报-20250801

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Alumina: The operating capacity continues to rise, and the daily output reaches new highs, leading to an expected increase in overall supply and a persistent oversupply outlook. Although consumption also increases to some extent, the increment is relatively limited. Short - term spot prices may remain firm due to local supply shortages, but with the cooling of speculative sentiment driven by policy expectations, domestic alumina prices are likely to weaken. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts, overseas mine disturbances, and the specific measures of the new round of the "Ten Key Industries Stable Growth Work Plan" [6]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: On the supply side, there is only a small net increase in addition to replacement capacity. On the demand side, different sectors show obvious differentiation. The automotive industry will still be the main driving force for aluminum demand in August, while photovoltaic demand weakens slightly, and aluminum use in real estate and home appliances exerts a certain drag. Apparent consumption is expected to decline year - on - year from July to August, but there are expectations for the consumption peak season in September. It is predicted that aluminum ingot inventories will reach the peak of off - season inventory accumulation in the range of 560,000 - 600,000 tons around mid - August. In the short term, affected by the further decline in the September interest - rate cut expectation and the fall in alumina futures prices, aluminum prices are weak, with a support level at 20,000. In the long run, factors such as low inventory and supply constraints support an upward shift in the price center. Buying on dips is recommended [6]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The price of scrap aluminum remains high. Affected by the US tariff on aluminum and the exemption of scrap aluminum, the import of US scrap aluminum increases. Coupled with Thailand's suspension of issuing licenses to recycling factories, China's scrap aluminum imports may decline in the future, and scrap aluminum prices still have room to rise, strongly supporting the aluminum alloy price. The fundamentals of casting aluminum alloy are good, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock. The futures market generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and the price difference between the two is basically between 350 - 500 yuan/ton. When the price difference widens, an arbitrage operation of going long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai aluminum can be considered [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review (Part 02) - In July, alumina futures prices fluctuated greatly, showing a trend of rising first and then falling, reaching a maximum of 3,577 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 7.94%. Electrolytic aluminum futures also showed a similar trend but with a smaller increase, operating in the range of 20,200 - 21,000 [8][9]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Aspects (Part 03) - Tariff Situation: China and the US extended the tariff for 90 days, and short - term tariff disturbances subsided. The US announced a new version of "reciprocal tariffs" for multiple countries and regions, with the base rate remaining at 10%, and most countries having rates within 20% except Canada [12][13]. - Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, and Powell's attitude was hawkish. Two Fed governors opposed maintaining the interest rate and supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in July. The Fed is still weighing the impact of tariffs on inflation and employment, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may further decline due to strong US economic and employment data [15][17][19]. - US Economic Data: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly rate increased by 3%. The core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year in June. The strong economic and employment data indicate that there is still a risk of inflation rising, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further adjusted downward [19]. - Domestic Economic Situation: China's second - quarter GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, national fixed - asset investment was 24.8654 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points seasonally. The Politburo meeting emphasized that macro - policies should continue to exert force in the second half of the year, and a series of policies are expected to support industrial product prices [25]. 3.3 Fundamental Aspects (Part 04) - Bauxite Supply: Domestic bauxite supply is relatively loose despite some disturbances. In June 2025, domestic bauxite production was 5.1933 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 203,600 tons. In July, production in some regions was restricted by rainfall. In Guinea, although some mines resumed production, the rainy - season impact led to a decline in July's bauxite shipments. However, China's bauxite imports increased significantly in the first half of the year, and port inventories also increased, so the import price is expected to have limited rebound [27][32]. - Alumina Supply and Demand: As of late July, the national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, and the operating capacity was 94.95 million tons, reaching a new high for the year. In June, China exported 171,000 tons of alumina and imported 101,000 tons. The supply is expected to remain in an oversupply situation. Low warehouse receipts support alumina futures prices, but attention should be paid to the changes in speculative sentiment [35][37][39]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum maintains high profits, with an expected profit of over 3,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year. The supply may increase slightly, but overall changes are not significant. Overseas electrolytic aluminum capacity has no obvious changes recently, and if all overseas capacity is put into production as scheduled, the output growth rate is expected to reach 3% - 5% from 2026 - 2027 [42][45][50]. - Downstream Consumption: - Processing Enterprises: The average weekly operating rate of processing enterprises decreased by 0.1% to 58.7%. Different sectors show different trends, and the aluminum foil sector may reduce production in August. The aluminum cable sector is expected to recover in the second half of August [54]. - Photovoltaic Industry: In June, the newly - installed photovoltaic capacity decreased, but the power grid investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan in 2025, driving the demand for aluminum rods [59]. - Real Estate: The demand for aluminum in the real estate sector remains weak. From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and various indicators such as new construction area and completion area also declined [62]. - Automotive Industry: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively, and new - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The automotive industry is expected to continue to drive aluminum consumption growth [66]. - Home Appliances: In August, the total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines decreased by 4.9% year - on - year. Although the production plan of air conditioners still shows a year - on - year decline, the decline is expected to narrow [70]. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventories have rebounded to a more than three - and - a - half - month high, and SHFE aluminum inventories have increased for four consecutive weeks. Aluminum ingot social inventories are accumulating, but the increase is within the seasonal range, and the current inventory level is still relatively low [73][76]. - Scrap Aluminum: The scrap aluminum procurement market is tight. The price is supported by factors such as import restrictions, limited domestic supply growth, and concentrated procurement by large enterprises. The price is expected to rise, and the price difference between domestic electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level [80][83].