Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips in August and maintaining this strategy in the medium to long term [6][7] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, copper prices are under pressure due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the decline in the expectation of a September interest rate cut. However, with the expectation of two interest rate cuts this year and the tight supply of copper mines throughout the year, copper prices are supported. In the long run, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, liquidity will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals, and the tight supply of copper mines will also support copper prices [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook (PART 01) - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The exclusion of electrolytic copper from the 50% copper tariff on August 1 may lead to the outflow of US electrolytic copper and accelerate the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. The Fed's inaction in July, combined with strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation, has further reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut, which suppresses copper prices. In the medium to long term, as tariffs ease and the market expects interest rate cuts in Q3, there are still expectations of two interest rate cuts this year, which will gradually ease the upper - limit pressure on metals. The tight supply of copper mines throughout the year also supports copper prices. Although copper prices are currently in short - term adjustment with a support level of 77,000, the medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7] 2. Market Review (PART 02) - In July, copper prices were generally in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the "232" policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to the integer mark of 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend in multiple industries and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. However, the "anti - involution" had limited impact on the non - ferrous supply, and the downstream acceptance of high prices was poor. After the sentiment subsided, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [8][9] 3. Macroeconomic Factors (PART 03) - Tariff Policy: The Sino - US tariff extension for 90 days has temporarily reduced tariff disturbances. The US announced a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivative products from August 1, excluding copper input materials and copper scrap. This led to a sharp decline in New York copper futures and related ETFs. Although electrolytic copper is excluded from the tariff, there is still long - term uncertainty as the US may consider imposing tariffs on electrolytic copper from 2027 [13][17] - Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50% in July, which was in line with market expectations. Two Fed governors voted against maintaining the interest rate, supporting a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July. The strong US economic and employment data and the risk of rising inflation have reduced the expectation of a September interest rate cut [20][22] - Domestic Economy: China's Q2 GDP annual rate was 5.2%, and the first - half GDP increased by 5.3% year - on - year. Fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8% year - on - year in the first half of the year, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. The Politburo meeting in July emphasized the need for macro - policies to continue to be effective in the second half of the year, release domestic demand potential, and promote high - level opening - up. The "anti - involution" policy and the acceleration of the implementation of growth - stabilizing policies may support industrial product prices [27] - Policy Impact on Supply and Demand: From the supply side, policies will guide the copper smelting industry to control production capacity, which is expected to restore TC/RC processing fees and ease the contradiction between mining and smelting. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" series of policies focus on promoting stable growth in the manufacturing industry, which will boost the downstream demand for copper. In the long run, the supply - demand mismatch may further push up the copper price center [29] 4. Fundamental Factors (PART 04) - Supply Side - Copper Ore Import: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supplies from Chile and Peru, the top two suppliers, continued to decline, with Peru's supply dropping by about 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas mines this year are zero, and the spot processing fees in the domestic market remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [30] - Copper Ore Processing Fees: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates is less active, and processing fees are "stable with a slight correction" [34] - Refined Copper Inventory: Affected by the "232" tariff policy, the rush to import copper since April has led to a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. However, as the policy expectation is fulfilled, LME copper inventory has increased. As of July 25, LME copper inventory reached 128,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons from the end of June. COMEX copper inventory is also increasing [38] - Electrolytic Copper Production: In the first half of 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons or 11.40%. The estimated production in July was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss stage, the willingness to cut production actively is not strong [42] - Scrap Copper Import: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to increase, while the supply from the US dropped significantly due to tariff policies. However, due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, domestic smelters' demand for scrap copper has increased, and the increased supply from other countries has made up for the shortfall [45] - Demand Side - Power Sector: As of the end of June, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in June decreased significantly after the "5.31 rush - to - install" period. In 2025, the investment in the national power grid is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the cumulative investment in the power grid was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power supply project investment also increased significantly. However, affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the wire and cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41% [49] - Real Estate Sector: In the first half of 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. The new construction area, completion area, and other indicators all declined. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventories are decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [53] - Automobile Sector: From January to June, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% year - on - year respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% year - on - year respectively. The export of automobiles and new energy vehicles also increased significantly. With the implementation of relevant policies and the rich supply of new products, the increase in automobile production will drive copper consumption [57] - Home Appliance Sector: In June 2025, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The cumulative production from January to June was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the total production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. Although the production plan for air - conditioners in August still decreased year - on - year, the decline was expected to narrow compared with the previous month [58]
铜月报（2025年7月）-20250801
Zhong Hang Qi Huo·2025-08-01 13:43