利率债8月投资策略展望：把握阶段性修复行情

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to experience a phased recovery, but there is a lack of new catalysts for interest rates to break below the June fluctuation center. Therefore, the recovery space should not be overestimated. It is expected that the bond market will shift to a volatile pattern after the phased recovery in August, and opportunities in long - term varieties can be grasped during the recovery phase [7][79][80]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 July Market Review 1.1 资金价格: 前松后紧 - In July 2025, the funding price showed a pattern of being loose in the first half and tight in the second half. In the first and middle ten - days, the central bank was willing to protect liquidity, and DR007 fluctuated around 1.5%. In the second half, the reverse repurchases over - issued during the tax period matured one after another, and the central bank chose to renew them in a reduced volume, which might intentionally tighten the funding side to cool down the equity market indirectly. DR007 rose rapidly above 1.6% at non - tax and non - end - of - month points. After the open market turned to net investment at the end of the month, the funding price eased to some extent [2][11][16]. 1.2 一级市场：政金债发行规模较高 - In July 2025, the issuance of treasury bonds decreased marginally, while the issuance scale of local bonds and policy - financial bonds increased. In terms of issuance, interest - rate bonds issued a total of 3.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 150 billion yuan month - on - month. Among them, treasury bonds issued 1.2 trillion yuan, less than each month in the second quarter; local bonds issued 1.2 trillion yuan, the highest monthly level in 2025; policy - financial bonds issued 0.8 trillion yuan, the highest monthly issuance in history. In terms of net financing, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 1.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 200 billion yuan month - on - month [11][18]. 1.3 二级市场：10Y国债收益率站上 1.7% - In the first and middle ten - days of July, the bond market was in a volatile pattern, with multiple factors overlapping but no main line. The bond market mainly focused on exploring variety spreads. In the second half of July, the bond market was under pressure as the Ya'an project started, boosting the total demand expectation, and the "inflation trade" became the main suppressing force in the bond market. The redemption pressure of bond funds and wealth management products also increased. It was not until the Politburo meeting at the end of July revealed the signal of "implementing existing policies" and the July PMI data showed that the fundamentals were still under pressure that the bond market had a slight recovery. As of July 31, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds closed at 1.7%, up 6bp from the end of June [11][3][32]. 基本面展望：压力不容忽视 - The "rush - to - export" effect may be coming to an end, and the year - on - year growth rate of exports may decline in the next 1 - 2 months. Under the promotion of "anti - involution", the growth rates of industrial production and manufacturing investment may slow down. Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain a relatively high growth rate. Consumption data may decline periodically until new growth points emerge after the "trade - in" policy. PPI data may improve, and the year - on - year and month - on - month decline is expected to narrow. After the "inflation trade" sentiment cools down, external and internal demand pressures will return to the spotlight, which is still a favorable environment for the bond market [58][79]. 政策展望:存量政策"落实落细" 3.1 财政政策:政府债供给压力或加大 - In terms of fiscal revenue and expenditure, government - funded expenditures increased significantly in June. In terms of public fiscal revenue, the year - on - year decline in the first half of the year continued, but the revenue structure improved. In terms of public fiscal expenditure, the year - on - year increase in the first half of the year narrowed compared with January - May, and the expenditure rhythm slowed down, but the support for people's livelihood and the technology field did not decrease. In terms of government - funded revenue and expenditure, the revenue growth improved under the drive of a low base, and the expenditure side increased significantly. The Politburo meeting's policy statement on fiscal policy is generally positive for the bond market. In August, the supply pressure of government bonds may increase [62][68][69]. 3.2 货币政策:主要关注公开市场操作 - In June, the total and structure of financial data improved. The Politburo meeting in July continued the tone of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, but removed the expression of "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" compared with April. It is indicated that the central bank still has the intention to protect liquidity, and the necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in August is not strong. Attention should be paid to the central bank's open - market operation dynamics [73][74]. 债市展望 - The bond market is expected to have a phased recovery, but the lack of new catalysts makes it difficult for interest rates to break below the June fluctuation center. It is expected to turn into a volatile pattern after the phased recovery in August, and long - term varieties can be considered during the recovery [79][80].