国投期货黑色金属日报-20250801

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market is affected by factors such as weak downstream demand, high iron - water production, and "anti - involution" policy expectations. Different varieties show different trends and characteristics, and short - term volatility is large. The market needs to pay attention to the overall trend of the commodity market and the demand - bearing capacity in the off - season [2][3] Summary by Commodity Steel - The steel futures market showed a weak shock today. This week, the apparent demand for thread weakened, production declined slightly, and inventory accumulated. The demand and production of hot roll increased, and inventory continued to accumulate slightly. With high iron - water production and low inventory, the market feedback pressure is small. However, downstream demand is weak, and the market is under short - term pressure [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market was mainly in shock today. Similar to steel, the apparent demand for thread weakened, and inventory accumulated. With high iron - water production and low inventory, the market feedback pressure is small. But due to weak downstream demand and no super - expected policies on the demand side, the market is under short - term pressure [3] Coke - The coke price declined today. The fifth round of price increase in coking was proposed with an accelerated pace, but the profit is still meager. The daily coking production decreased slightly, and the overall inventory continued to decline slightly. Traders' purchasing willingness is good. Affected by policy expectations, the price volatility is large in the short term, and the downward space is relatively small [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal price declined today with increased volatility. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction market improved, and the terminal inventory increased. The total inventory of coking coal decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory continued to decline significantly. Affected by policy expectations, the price volatility is large in the short term, and the downward space is relatively small [6] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price showed a narrow - range shock today. With high iron - water production, the weekly production of silicomanganese continued to increase, but the rate was lower than expected, which supported the price. Manganese ore prices increased slightly this week, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continues to decline. Attention should be paid to the support at the 5800 level [7] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price showed a narrow - range shock today. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand is okay. The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the market trading level is average. The on - balance - sheet inventory declined in a fluctuating manner. Ferrosilicon mainly follows the trend of silicomanganese, and its power cost may decline again after the peak electricity - consumption period [8]