债券征税新规发布，五大关注

Tax Policy Changes - The new tax policy will impose VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025[1] - Existing bonds issued before this date will continue to be exempt from VAT until maturity[1] Current Tax Rules - Public funds enjoy full tax exemptions on interest income and capital gains for government and local bonds[2] - Non-public asset management products are exempt from VAT on interest income but subject to 3% VAT and 25% income tax on capital gains[2] Fiscal Intent and Impact - The tax adjustment aims to alleviate fiscal pressure, as tax revenue has seen negative growth in 2020 (-2.3%), 2022 (-3.5%), and 2024 (-3.4%)[3] - In the first half of 2025, tax revenue was 9.29 trillion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year[3] Affected Institutions - Banks will face a 6% VAT on interest income from government, local, and financial bonds[4] - Public funds may continue to enjoy tax exemptions, while non-public asset management institutions could see VAT on interest income return to 3%[4] Market Pricing Dynamics - The bond market may experience dual pricing for old and new bonds, with old bonds likely to see increased demand due to tax exemptions[6] - New bonds issued after August 8 may be priced based on similar existing bonds, with a potential markup of 1.05-1.06 times[6]