A股行业中观景气跟踪月报（2025年7月）：反内卷推动光伏锂电和部分顺周期品价格修复至2024年同期水位-20250802

Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in prices for photovoltaic and lithium battery products, driven by anti-involution policies, bringing them back to levels seen in the same period of 2024 [1][5] - Manufacturing PMI for July 2025 shows a decline to 49.3%, indicating a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector, while non-manufacturing PMI remains above the threshold but shows marginal slowdown [2][9] Industry Analysis - Manufacturing Sector: The manufacturing sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with production still expanding despite a decline in PMI. The overall manufacturing PMI is at 49.3%, down from 49.7% in June [2][9] - High-frequency Indicators: Various industrial sectors show differing trends; sectors like non-ferrous metals and machinery are performing well, while pharmaceuticals and textiles are under pressure [3][4] - Consumer Confidence: There is a recovery in consumer confidence, but retail sales are expected to slow down due to the end of promotional seasons and transitional phases in government subsidies [4][5] - Advanced Manufacturing: The photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors are seeing price recovery due to regulatory measures against chaotic competition, although demand-side constraints remain [5] - Technology Sector: The export of optical communication modules has decreased by 11.2% year-on-year, while storage prices are rising due to supply constraints [5] - Financial Sector: Insurance premium income has increased by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating a recovery in the financial market [5] - Real Estate Sector: Real estate investment and sales are slowing down, with a notable decline in new housing starts and construction activities [5] - Energy Sector: Coal and steel prices have seen a spike due to high demand and regulatory measures, while oil prices are stabilizing amid improved economic expectations [5] - Chemical Industry: The PPI for industrial products has decreased, with significant declines in the chemical sector, indicating ongoing challenges [5][8]