格林大华期货国债期货7月报：短期冲击可能已告一段落-20250802

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy faces challenges in maintaining rapid growth in the second half of the year, and policies may be introduced around the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. The short - term impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the bond market may have ended, and the bond market may return to a volatile pattern. In the context of the moderately loose monetary policy, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [104] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - Trend of Treasury Bond Futures Active Contracts: In the first half of July, the main contract of treasury bond futures showed narrow - range fluctuations. After the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's statement on July 18, the market risk appetite increased, and treasury bond futures prices fell rapidly. After the Sino - US - Swedish economic and trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting on July 30, treasury bond futures prices stopped falling and rebounded [7] - Yield of Treasury Bond Spot: In July, the closing yield of 10 - year treasury bond spot rose from 1.65% at the end of June to a maximum of 1.75% and closed at 1.70% on July 31; the closing yield of 30 - year treasury bond spot rose from 1.86% at the end of June to a maximum of 2.00% and closed at 1.95% on July 31 [9] - Yield Curve of Treasury Bond Spot: Compared with the end of June, the yield - to - maturity curve of treasury bond spot at the end of July shifted upward as a whole. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields increased by 6BP, 6BP, 5BP, and 9BP respectively [12] 3.2. Current Analysis - Macroeconomic Data: The GDP in the second quarter increased by 5.2% year - on - year, meeting market expectations. The GDP deflator in the second quarter decreased by 1.20% year - on - year. The national fixed - asset investment in the first half of the year increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. The real estate market continued to decline, with the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreasing year - on - year, and the price of second - hand housing in first, second, and third - tier cities falling [17][19][22] - Consumption Data: In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. Most categories of consumer goods in units above the designated size saw a decline in growth rate compared with May [33][35] - Service Industry Data: In June, the national service industry production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year. The growth rates of some industries such as information technology and leasing and business services were relatively high [37] - Foreign Trade Data: In June, China's exports increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 114.77 billion US dollars. In July, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) declined slightly, and the decline of the US - West route was faster [40][45] - Industrial Data: In June, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.8% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The product sales rate decreased, and the capacity utilization rate in the second quarter decreased compared with the previous quarter. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable [48][50][52] - Price Data: In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. In July, the agricultural product wholesale price hovered at a low level, and the South China Industrial Products Index rose [56][62][64] - PMI Data: In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, below the boom - bust line for the fourth consecutive month. The production index continued to expand, while the demand index re - entered the contraction range. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, showing a decline [67][70][73] - Financial Data: In June, the social financing scale increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, and the RMB loans increased by 2.24 trillion yuan. At the end of June, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was relatively stable, and the high interest rate spread between Chinese and US treasury bonds restricted the flexibility of domestic interest rate cuts. The market expects a high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September [76][80][89] - Bond Market Data: In July, DR001 had a larger fluctuation range, and the government bond net financing maintained a fast pace. The spread between 10 - year and 1 - year treasury bonds slightly widened, and the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds fluctuated around 0.2% [92][95][99] 3.3. Strategy Recommendations - Given the current economic situation and policy environment, in the context of the moderately loose monetary policy, a strategy of buying on dips and trading in bands can be considered [104]