美国就业数据点评（2025.7）：美国就业大幅降温，美联储降息板上钉钉了吗？

Employment Data - In July, the U.S. added only 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly lower than expected, with previous months' job additions revised down to 19,000 and 14,000 for May and June respectively, indicating a downward adjustment of 86,000 jobs[3] - The average unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in July, reversing a slight decline in June[3] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate fell for the third consecutive month, down 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%, the lowest since December 2022, reflecting a decrease in potential labor supply due to strict immigration controls[4] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3.9% year-on-year, following three months of stagnation, indicating upward pressure on wages[4] Economic Implications - The labor market's current cooling trend is expected to be temporary, with potential recovery as fiscal expansion measures are implemented, which may lead to increased job creation and higher incomes[4] - The "Big and Beautiful Act" is anticipated to provide significant tax incentives for domestic investment, potentially leading to a rebound in the labor market and upward pressure on inflation[4] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, the U.S. dollar index fell sharply by 1.38% to 98.69, reflecting market concerns over the labor market's performance[3] - The overall structure of job additions in July suggests a prolonged process for the return of advanced industry chains to the U.S., with tariffs having a notable impact on domestic manufacturing[3]